Descripción del proyecto
Estudiar el pasado para predecir el futuro de las costas en todo el mundo
El último período interglacial (hace 125 000 años) fue la última vez que la Tierra experimentó temperaturas ligeramente más altas que en la época preindustrial. Las capas de hielo eran más finas y el nivel medio mundial del mar era superior. Estas condiciones fueron provocadas por un cambio relacionado con la configuración orbital de la Tierra. El calentamiento climático actual está causado por un aumento de las emisiones de dióxido de carbono a la atmósfera. El equipo del proyecto WARMCOASTS, financiado con fondos europeos, utilizará variables subrogadas geológicas para ajustar las estimaciones sobre el nivel medio mundial del mar del último período interglacial, y evaluará la posibilidad de que este período se caracterizara por grandes oscilaciones del nivel del mar y tormentas marinas más intensas que las actuales. Los resultados aportarán información relativa a supuestos de gran valor sobre las tormentas y el nivel del mar que permitirá evaluar en qué medida el aumento de las temperaturas mundiales afectará a nuestras zonas costeras.
Objetivo
Past interglacials are periods of the earth’s history when climate was warmer than the pre-industrial, and are often considered as process-analogs for a future warmer climate. During the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~128-116 ka), polar temperatures were few degrees higher than pre-industrial, ice sheets were smaller and sea level was higher than today. Studies also suggest that waves in the North Atlantic might have been more intense in the LIG than today. Understanding sea level changes and extreme wave intensity during the LIG is key to assess the future of the world’s ice sheets and coastlines under warmer climatic conditions. For this reason, the LIG is the most studied among past interglacials, but recent research highlighted that the LIG is far from a ‘solved problem’, especially for which concerns sea level and coastal dynamics. There are in fact three relevant research gaps.
First, widely accepted estimates suggest that LIG global mean sea level was 5-10 m higher than today, but recent studies proved that previously unrecognized processes concur to make current LIG sea level estimates very uncertain. Second, it is unclear if LIG sea level was characterized by rapid oscillations that caused sea level to rise abruptly at rates higher than at present (up to 10 mm per year in the LIG, compare with 3 mm per year today). A third research gap is related to the highly controversial notion that the LIG was characterized by ‘superstorms’, producing waves more intense than those observed today.
In this project, we want to employ a multidisciplinary combination of methods to study Last Interglacial peak sea level, sea level variations and extreme waves. WARMCOASTS will develop both new datasets and merge methods from geology, earth modeling, surface processes modeling and hydrodynamic modeling to advance the current state-of-the-art. The results of this project will be functional to better understand coastal processes under slightly warmer climate conditions.
Ámbito científico
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Régimen de financiación
ERC-STG - Starting GrantInstitución de acogida
30123 Venezia
Italia