Descrizione del progetto
Guardare al passato per prevedere il futuro delle coste mondiali
L’ultimo interglaciale (125 000 anni fa) è stato l’ultimo periodo in cui la Terra è stata leggermente più calda rispetto all’epoca preindustriale: gli strati di ghiaccio erano più sottili e il livello medio globale dei mari era più alto. Queste condizioni sono state provocate da un cambiamento nella configurazione orbitale della Terra, mentre il riscaldamento climatico odierno è il risultato dell’aumento dell’anidride carbonica nell’atmosfera. Il progetto WARMCOASTS, finanziato dall’UE, utilizzerà proxy geologici per affinare le stime relative al livello medio globale dei mari dell’ultimo interglaciale e valutare la possibilità che questo periodo sia stato caratterizzato da grandi oscillazioni del livello dei mari e da tempeste marine più forti di quelle attuali. I risultati offriranno dettagli utili per elaborare scenari esclusivi relativi al livello dei mari e alle tempeste, i quali contribuiranno a valutare la misura in cui l’aumento delle temperature a livello globale si ripercuoterà sulle nostre zone costiere.
Obiettivo
Past interglacials are periods of the earth’s history when climate was warmer than the pre-industrial, and are often considered as process-analogs for a future warmer climate. During the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~128-116 ka), polar temperatures were few degrees higher than pre-industrial, ice sheets were smaller and sea level was higher than today. Studies also suggest that waves in the North Atlantic might have been more intense in the LIG than today. Understanding sea level changes and extreme wave intensity during the LIG is key to assess the future of the world’s ice sheets and coastlines under warmer climatic conditions. For this reason, the LIG is the most studied among past interglacials, but recent research highlighted that the LIG is far from a ‘solved problem’, especially for which concerns sea level and coastal dynamics. There are in fact three relevant research gaps.
First, widely accepted estimates suggest that LIG global mean sea level was 5-10 m higher than today, but recent studies proved that previously unrecognized processes concur to make current LIG sea level estimates very uncertain. Second, it is unclear if LIG sea level was characterized by rapid oscillations that caused sea level to rise abruptly at rates higher than at present (up to 10 mm per year in the LIG, compare with 3 mm per year today). A third research gap is related to the highly controversial notion that the LIG was characterized by ‘superstorms’, producing waves more intense than those observed today.
In this project, we want to employ a multidisciplinary combination of methods to study Last Interglacial peak sea level, sea level variations and extreme waves. WARMCOASTS will develop both new datasets and merge methods from geology, earth modeling, surface processes modeling and hydrodynamic modeling to advance the current state-of-the-art. The results of this project will be functional to better understand coastal processes under slightly warmer climate conditions.
Campo scientifico
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
ERC-STG - Starting GrantIstituzione ospitante
30123 Venezia
Italia