Periodic Reporting for period 2 - FLARE (FLooding Accident REsponse)
Período documentado: 2020-12-01 hasta 2022-11-30
Problem – Flooding Risk
Damage stability failure represents 90% of the risk to human lives in maritime accidents. Inadequate damage stability has been the cause of 53% of all vessel losses over the past decade
and was the primary cause of 65% of losses in 2019. The maximum number of passengers carried by the largest cruise ships each year has risen dramatically, meaning that there is now a far
greater risk of passenger fatality from any single accident.
Objectives
The FLARE overriding objective is to develop a novel risk-based methodology beyond the existing state-of-the-art for ‘live’ flooding risk assessment and containment in line with IMO high level
goals.
Specific objectives include:
Collate and analyse all pertinent accident data to create a flooding incident/accident database.
Using this database, to develop a generic risk model for flooding incidents, accounting for collision and grounding.
The risk model to be holistic, hence with application potential to both newbuildings and existing ships.
Facilitate real-time flooding risk evaluation for risk monitoring and effective control in emergencies.
To consider an all-embracing, risk-aware approach post-flooding incidents by addressing the whole spectrum of risk from susceptibility to flooding to emergency response.
To provide the technical basis and a proposal for the revision of relevant IMO regulations towards a risk-based approach to contain and control flooding incidents.
Damage stability failure represents 90% of the risk to human lives in maritime accidents. Inadequate damage stability has been the cause of 53% of all vessel losses over the past decade
and was the primary cause of 65% of losses in 2019. The maximum number of passengers carried by the largest cruise ships each year has risen dramatically, meaning that there is now a far
greater risk of passenger fatality from any single accident.
Objectives
The FLARE overriding objective is to develop a novel risk-based methodology beyond the existing state-of-the-art for ‘live’ flooding risk assessment and containment in line with IMO high level
goals.
Specific objectives include:
Collate and analyse all pertinent accident data to create a flooding incident/accident database.
Using this database, to develop a generic risk model for flooding incidents, accounting for collision and grounding.
The risk model to be holistic, hence with application potential to both newbuildings and existing ships.
Facilitate real-time flooding risk evaluation for risk monitoring and effective control in emergencies.
To consider an all-embracing, risk-aware approach post-flooding incidents by addressing the whole spectrum of risk from susceptibility to flooding to emergency response.
To provide the technical basis and a proposal for the revision of relevant IMO regulations towards a risk-based approach to contain and control flooding incidents.
Summary of main FLARE results
• Development and implementation of a risk-based framework to the assessment of flooding risk and ship’s damage stability for passenger ships
• Demonstrated effect of structure crashworthiness
• Validation of numerical simulations by physical model tests
• Risk-based framework for two-levels of risk calculation
• Accounting for improved damage statistics for passenger ships, bottom and side grounding
• Wide range of risk control options (RCOs) investigated
• Risk calculation successfully applied by designers and shipyard processes
• Revised values for realistic permeability and draughts in damage stability calculations
• Unified non-zonal approach to damages due to collisions, bottom and side grounding implemented in practice
• Proposals how to improve SOLAS ready for submission
Exploitation and Dissemination
BAL - Selling the LCPA tool as product,offering services to assess solutions in terms of economy, environment, and risk and to provide advice on how to carry out such an assessment.
MSRC - Proteus/Nereus will be further developed and verified and linked to the FLARE framework. The Accident Database will be updated for easiness of access and use by the partners and related Administrative Authorities.
AALTO - Further development and validation of a fast response tool for crashworthiness analysis and decision support
BROO - BROO’s tools PROTEUS and EVI will be used together to investigate and demonstrate the benefit of active flooding control devices, in accident investigations, for ship safety research and commercial projects.
BV - Combination of probabilistic and statistical damage stability method with direct method for crashworthiness evaluation in attained index. Possible alternative design and rule development.
CAR, COL, STENA, RCCL - Application of the FLARE Framework in the fleet.
DNVGL - Develop advisory services with respect to alternative means of increasing survivability in case of flooding. Classification of ships considering alternative ways for achieving compliance with SOLAS requirements.
FC - Application of the FLARE Framework in ship design to enhance safety beyond SOLAS.
HSVA - HSVA Rolls will be used together with the evacuation software AENEAS to investigate and demonstrate the benefit of active flooding control devices, in accident investigations, for ship safety research and commercial projects.
ICAM - Development and validation of a fast response tool for crashworthiness analysis: Improvement of SHARP accidental response analysis tool by implementation of grounding calculation solver based on analytical formulations.
LR - Speed up, validation and improvement of simulation of ship’s survivability assessment in line with IMO SOLAS requirements
MARIN - FREDYN will be further applied in the design and evaluation work done by MARIN for commercial and non-commercial projects.
MW and MT - Application of the FLARE Framework in ship design to enhance safety beyond SOLAS.
NAPA - Improvements of NAPA Emergency Computer decision support software for use onboard cruise and Ropax ships. Extended use of time-domain flooding simulation.
SEAE - Facilitate and coordinate the uptake of the Sovereign achievements by means of communication and dissemination activities as well as by stakeholder involvement. This counts for rulemaking by the IMO and other competent authorities.
CDA - Using the FLARE framework, we aim to better estimate the real survivability of our ships beyond the current regulation. This will allow us to further optimize the safety performance or our ships designs.
RINA - Further develop, validate and verify alternative methods and advanced numerical simulations to assess ship survivability, consistent with SOLAS provisions.
NTUA - Use of the FLARE Framework in post-graduate education; elaboration of database of passenger ship accidents and causal analysis
• Development and implementation of a risk-based framework to the assessment of flooding risk and ship’s damage stability for passenger ships
• Demonstrated effect of structure crashworthiness
• Validation of numerical simulations by physical model tests
• Risk-based framework for two-levels of risk calculation
• Accounting for improved damage statistics for passenger ships, bottom and side grounding
• Wide range of risk control options (RCOs) investigated
• Risk calculation successfully applied by designers and shipyard processes
• Revised values for realistic permeability and draughts in damage stability calculations
• Unified non-zonal approach to damages due to collisions, bottom and side grounding implemented in practice
• Proposals how to improve SOLAS ready for submission
Exploitation and Dissemination
BAL - Selling the LCPA tool as product,offering services to assess solutions in terms of economy, environment, and risk and to provide advice on how to carry out such an assessment.
MSRC - Proteus/Nereus will be further developed and verified and linked to the FLARE framework. The Accident Database will be updated for easiness of access and use by the partners and related Administrative Authorities.
AALTO - Further development and validation of a fast response tool for crashworthiness analysis and decision support
BROO - BROO’s tools PROTEUS and EVI will be used together to investigate and demonstrate the benefit of active flooding control devices, in accident investigations, for ship safety research and commercial projects.
BV - Combination of probabilistic and statistical damage stability method with direct method for crashworthiness evaluation in attained index. Possible alternative design and rule development.
CAR, COL, STENA, RCCL - Application of the FLARE Framework in the fleet.
DNVGL - Develop advisory services with respect to alternative means of increasing survivability in case of flooding. Classification of ships considering alternative ways for achieving compliance with SOLAS requirements.
FC - Application of the FLARE Framework in ship design to enhance safety beyond SOLAS.
HSVA - HSVA Rolls will be used together with the evacuation software AENEAS to investigate and demonstrate the benefit of active flooding control devices, in accident investigations, for ship safety research and commercial projects.
ICAM - Development and validation of a fast response tool for crashworthiness analysis: Improvement of SHARP accidental response analysis tool by implementation of grounding calculation solver based on analytical formulations.
LR - Speed up, validation and improvement of simulation of ship’s survivability assessment in line with IMO SOLAS requirements
MARIN - FREDYN will be further applied in the design and evaluation work done by MARIN for commercial and non-commercial projects.
MW and MT - Application of the FLARE Framework in ship design to enhance safety beyond SOLAS.
NAPA - Improvements of NAPA Emergency Computer decision support software for use onboard cruise and Ropax ships. Extended use of time-domain flooding simulation.
SEAE - Facilitate and coordinate the uptake of the Sovereign achievements by means of communication and dissemination activities as well as by stakeholder involvement. This counts for rulemaking by the IMO and other competent authorities.
CDA - Using the FLARE framework, we aim to better estimate the real survivability of our ships beyond the current regulation. This will allow us to further optimize the safety performance or our ships designs.
RINA - Further develop, validate and verify alternative methods and advanced numerical simulations to assess ship survivability, consistent with SOLAS provisions.
NTUA - Use of the FLARE Framework in post-graduate education; elaboration of database of passenger ship accidents and causal analysis
Impacts
• The FLARE risk-based framework forms the basis for the application of an improved flooding risk assessment by:
• Consistent two-level approach for risk calculation
o Non-zonal approach available for daily use in design
o Bottom and side grounding / contact is now quantifiable
o Updated figures for permeability data ready for use
o Agreed guidelines for the conduct of numerical simulations
o Simulations used by a large group of naval architects in shipyard practice
o Effect of new RCOs is demonstrated
• Crashworthiness of structure is expected to positively impact future designs
Conclusions
Having achieved the expected goals, the declared ambitions and the results, FLARE partners are ready to further progress in the involvement and engagement of industry and policy makers.
Important actions were already taken to engage the various groups involved in ship design, operation and classification, across industry, academia, research and policy makers, continuing the well-established cooperation already existing in the consortium.
For the full exploitation of the obtained results in practice continued dissemination activities are necessary to further inform the regulators and patiently continue the education process of all involved stakeholders. A deeper understanding of the results and the practical implementation of the proposed RCOs on new and existing ships are essential contributions to minimise the PLL of passenger ships after flooding damages.
The impact of operational measures developed in FLARE can be enhanced through the cruise and Ro-Pax operators in the project, driving innovation by using the most promising measures in their future designs as well as in existing ships.
Policy makers and class societies can facilitate the evolution of the rule-making process, towards a more effective risk mitigation and control in flooding emergencies, harmonizing existing provisions with more innovative processes for a more holistic evaluation of ship safety.
• The FLARE risk-based framework forms the basis for the application of an improved flooding risk assessment by:
• Consistent two-level approach for risk calculation
o Non-zonal approach available for daily use in design
o Bottom and side grounding / contact is now quantifiable
o Updated figures for permeability data ready for use
o Agreed guidelines for the conduct of numerical simulations
o Simulations used by a large group of naval architects in shipyard practice
o Effect of new RCOs is demonstrated
• Crashworthiness of structure is expected to positively impact future designs
Conclusions
Having achieved the expected goals, the declared ambitions and the results, FLARE partners are ready to further progress in the involvement and engagement of industry and policy makers.
Important actions were already taken to engage the various groups involved in ship design, operation and classification, across industry, academia, research and policy makers, continuing the well-established cooperation already existing in the consortium.
For the full exploitation of the obtained results in practice continued dissemination activities are necessary to further inform the regulators and patiently continue the education process of all involved stakeholders. A deeper understanding of the results and the practical implementation of the proposed RCOs on new and existing ships are essential contributions to minimise the PLL of passenger ships after flooding damages.
The impact of operational measures developed in FLARE can be enhanced through the cruise and Ro-Pax operators in the project, driving innovation by using the most promising measures in their future designs as well as in existing ships.
Policy makers and class societies can facilitate the evolution of the rule-making process, towards a more effective risk mitigation and control in flooding emergencies, harmonizing existing provisions with more innovative processes for a more holistic evaluation of ship safety.