Project on Integrated Assessment model-based Scenarios for Sustainable development Objectives

Project Information

PICASSO

Grant agreement ID: 819566

DOI

10.3030/819566

Project closed

EC signature date 3 April 2019

Start date 1 June 2019

End date 30 November 2025

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 2 000 000,00

EU contribution

€ 2 000 000,00

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHT
Netherlands

Periodic Reporting for period 4 - PICASSO (Project on Integrated Assessment model-based Scenarios for Sustainable development Objectives)

Reporting period: 2023-12-01 to 2025-11-30

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

In 2015, nearly all nations adopted the ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These 17 goals range from ensuring environmental protection to improving economic conditions and overall well-being. Achieving them simultaneously poses major challenges due to complex interlinkages. At the start of PICASSO, the scientific knowledge on how to meet these diverse goals in an integrated way was limited. The PICASSO project addressed this gap by developing a novel set of model-based scenarios using a backcasting approach. Specifically, PICASSO’s objectives were to: 1) identify the transformation processes required to achieve these targets; 2) assess key synergies and trade-offs among sustainability goals; and 3) understand relationships between different geographic locations. To achieve this, the project used the integrated assessment model IMAGE 3.0. In the project, model improvements were implemented. These improvements strengthened the model’s ability to represent SDG related response options. We used the model to develop new scenarios. The resulting scenarios can support SDG implementation, help assess current progress, and deepen scientific understanding of integrated response strategies. They also offer a valuable basis for other researchers conducting more detailed analyses. In other words, PICASSO made substantial contributions to sustainable development research by advancing integrated scenario analysis, developing a system to evaluate progress toward the goals (the target space), and creating a dashboard to visualise SDG performance across scenarios. The results show that, under current trends, meeting the 2030 targets is nearly impossbile, but over a longer time horizon achieving the targets is still feasible. The project also highlighted key synergies and trade-offs among goals—such as those involving biodiversity and energy systems—which are essential to understanding the implications of different policy pathways. Together, these contributions provide valuable insights for policymakers and researchers on how integrated strategies can accelerate progress toward a more just and sustainable future.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The first step in the project was to develop a set of indicators to determine SDG achievement. The set consists of 36 well-defined targets—one to three per SDG—allowing the assessment of model-based scenarios referred to as the so-called target space, published by van Vuuren et al. (2022). We also compiled an overview of existing scenarios in the scientific literature that address the SDGs. This review showed that only a small number of scenarios cover a broad set of SDGs, and that comparisons across studies are difficult due to inconsistent indicators and target definitions. These findings underscored the need for new, integrated scenario work in the context of the SDGs.

We developed a set of scenarios in collaboration with the SHAPE project, producing the first scenarios explicitly designed to achieve the SDGs. The results demonstrated several possible pathways toward meeting the goals. They also showed that achieving all targets by 2030 is now highly unlikely; however, multiple pathways remain feasible over a longer timeframe. Further progress was made on several underlying research themes. For example, we assessed investment requirements for achieving selected SDGs through a comprehensive literature review. For SDG 3 (Health and Well‑being), we found that by 2050 aggressive climate mitigation and universal access to clean energy could lead to significant reduction of indoor air pollution leading to cardiopulmonary health benefits. For SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), the analysis showed that universal energy access is unlikely to be reached by 2030, but that mini‑grids could cost‑effectively expand access in Sub‑Saharan Africa. We also generated new insights related to inequality, resource use, biodiversity, energy access, and pollution. In total, 34 papers were published, making significant contributions to the literature and advancing understanding of both the interactions among SDGs and the progress required to achieve the targets. The project also organised a workshop in Leiden titled “Sustainable Development Goals: How Do We Meet Them?”. Participants concluded that further work is needed on the future of the SDGs, particularly given that the agenda may need to be reformulated. It also discussed how scenario modellers can continue to support SDG-related ambitions beyond 2030. Finally, the project results are also visualised and disseminated via a scenario dashboard on the project’s website.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The PICASSO project advanced the state of the art in multiple ways.

First, we developed an integrated and comparable framework to assess SDG achievement. This Target Space for SDGs consists of 36 well‑defined outcome-based targets across all SDGs, enabling systematic evaluation of model-based scenarios, focusing on outcome rather than means indicators (van Vuuren et al., One Earth, 2022).

Second, PICASSO—together with the SHAPE project—developed the first model‑based pathways explicitly targeting SDG achievement. This scenario set, containing multiple feasible pathways, shows that while full attainment by 2030 is unlikely, but achieving the SDGs over a longer timeframe remains possible. We also conducted a review of the existing SDG scenario literature, highlighting the lack of comprehensive, comparable scenario work to date.

Third, the project made several advancements in model representation of SDGs in IMAGE 3.0. Key areas of improvement include: 1) expanded coverage of health outcomes, including the first joint analysis of indoor and ambient air pollution (PM2.₅) using future scenarios, combined with a health impact assessment; 2) methods and scenarios to assess effects on income distribution, 3) Improved representation of climate impacts on energy systems, future load curves, and pathways toward 100% electricity access by 2030, 4) analysis of biodiversity outcomes under global sustainability pathways, 5) analysing resource use across alternative development pathways and 6) reporting on planetary boundary indicators.

Fourth, we assessed investment needs to achieve various SDGs (with a focus on SDG 10), publishing the most comprehensive overview to date.

Fifth, the project ensured full adherence to open-data and transparency principles. We developed a data explorer for PICASSO scenarios to enable transparency and reusability of outputs for research and policy, and we created a dashboard to visualise SDG progress across scenarios.

Overall, 34 publications resulted from the ERC project, appearing in journals such as Nature, The Lancet Planetary Health, Nature Sustainability and Environmental Research Letters. The project resulted in 1 completed PhD dissertation and 3 additional dissertations forthcoming. Collectively, this work advances understanding of integrated SDG–climate pathways, distributional justice, health impacts, biodiversity outcomes, and energy access.

We will build on these results to contribute to discussions on post‑2030 sustainable development trajectories, including work with the Earth Commission on Planetary Boundaries and Decent Living Standards. The advances made will be incorporated into all future work with the IMAGE model. We will also complete the remaining PhD theses on health, resources, and energy access (with the equity-focused thesis already submitted).

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