Periodic Reporting for period 3 - PICASSO (Project on Integrated Assessment model-based Scenarios for Sustainable development Objectives)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2022-06-01 do 2023-11-30
In 2015, nearly all nations agreed on a set of ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ensure environmental protection and human development. Accounting for the coherence of the overall set of goals presents a major scientific challenge as there are many complex relationships and feedbacks between them and across various scales (local to global, near- and long-term). However, very little scientific information exists on how to achieve such a diverse set of goals simultaneously.
In the PICASSO project, we will address the scientific gap by developing a novel set of model-based scenarios that explore the efforts required to achieve a set of key sustainable development targets by 2050 simultaneously (i.e. using a backcasting approach). These targets are based on the SDGs and other international agreements and cover key sustainability issues such as food production, energy and land use, climate change, water scarcity, and nutrient cycles. The purpose of the analysis is to identify 1) transformation processes needed for achieving these targets (including timing), 2) key synergies and trade-offs among sustainability issues, and 3) the relationships between different geographic scales. We use the integrated assessment model IMAGE 3.0 to develop such scenarios and explore the key linkages. For this purpose, important model improvements will be made to better cover the feedback and response options relevant for the SDG targets. Additional project activities will cover uncertainty analysis, and questions related to implementation (the role of different actors in these transitions). The scenarios can be used to support implement the SDGs, evaluate current progress and enhance scientific understanding of integrated response strategies that can be used by other researchers in more detailed analysis.
In the PICASSO project, we will address the scientific gap by developing a novel set of model-based scenarios that explore the efforts required to achieve a set of key sustainable development targets by 2050 simultaneously (i.e. using a backcasting approach). These targets are based on the SDGs and other international agreements and cover key sustainability issues such as food production, energy and land use, climate change, water scarcity, and nutrient cycles. The purpose of the analysis is to identify 1) transformation processes needed for achieving these targets (including timing), 2) key synergies and trade-offs among sustainability issues, and 3) the relationships between different geographic scales. We use the integrated assessment model IMAGE 3.0 to develop such scenarios and explore the key linkages. For this purpose, important model improvements will be made to better cover the feedback and response options relevant for the SDG targets. Additional project activities will cover uncertainty analysis, and questions related to implementation (the role of different actors in these transitions). The scenarios can be used to support implement the SDGs, evaluate current progress and enhance scientific understanding of integrated response strategies that can be used by other researchers in more detailed analysis.
Since the beginning of the project, we have set up the research team. The first critical steps in designing the SDG scenarios and model improvement have been made. This, among others, included in developing a set of indicators that can be used to measure whether the SDGs are achieved. This set consists of a limited set of well-defined targets for each SDG (36 in total) - allowing evaluation of model-based scenarios. In addition, an overview was made of existing scenarios in the scientific literature addressing the SDGs. This overview shows that at the moment very few scenarios exist that address a large group of SDGs. Moreover, existing scenarios can hardly be compared as a result of different indicators and targets. The results emphasize the importance of new scenario work in the context of the SDGs.
In addition, also progress was made on more specific underlying research topics. For instance, we made an assessment of the investment requirements for achieving a set of SDGs based on a literature review. This assessment forms the first update of work done in 2014. Second, we reviewed all existing literature on the relationship between health goals and (achieving) environmental SDGs. The project also focused on model development related to linkages between different SDGs, such as climate (SDG13) and renewable energy (SDG7) and bioenergy use (SDG13/SDG7) and biodiversity (SDG15). The project also contributed to new model exploration regarding biodiversity goals.
In addition, also progress was made on more specific underlying research topics. For instance, we made an assessment of the investment requirements for achieving a set of SDGs based on a literature review. This assessment forms the first update of work done in 2014. Second, we reviewed all existing literature on the relationship between health goals and (achieving) environmental SDGs. The project also focused on model development related to linkages between different SDGs, such as climate (SDG13) and renewable energy (SDG7) and bioenergy use (SDG13/SDG7) and biodiversity (SDG15). The project also contributed to new model exploration regarding biodiversity goals.
The work on the set of critical indicators for modelling SDGs (target space) allows the modelling community to better develop SDGs scenarios. This will also form the basis of new scenarios developed in PICASSO.