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Towards more Earthquake-resilient Urban Societies through a Multi-sensor-based Information System enabling Earthquake Forecasting, Early Warning and Rapid Response actions

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - TURNkey (Towards more Earthquake-resilient Urban Societies through a Multi-sensor-based Information System enabling Earthquake Forecasting, Early Warning and Rapid Response actions)

Período documentado: 2019-06-01 hasta 2020-11-30

Among natural hazards, earthquakes lead to the highest number fatalities and cause the second highest annual economic losses. From 2006 to 2015, Europe experienced 21 earthquake-related disasters that resulted in 1,049 fatalities, more than 18 billion Euros in economic losses, and affected 284,000 people.

The TURNkey project addresses three topics:
• Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), by collecting/analysing earthquake-hazard information for the regions of interest and by monitoring the regions with appropriate instrumentation;
• Earthquake Early Warning (EEW), by distributing reliable information that an earthquake is happening as fast and efficiently as possible to relevant stakeholders; and
• Rapid Response to Earthquakes (RRE), by informing relevant stakeholders about the most probable damage scenarios in near real-time and by estimating losses.

The overall objective of TURNkey is to reduce future human, social and economic losses in Europe by assisting stakeholders in different risk mitigation actions before, during, and after a damaging earthquake.
WP1 started with a literature review on EEW and OEF communication strategies and with a state-of-the-art review of current EEW/OEF/RRE systems and their application to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) by improving community resilience to earthquakes. Furthermore, online and in-person fieldwork was conducted to identify stakeholder requirements of the TURNkey platform, looking at civil protection, first responders and citizens as well as critical infrastructure providers and other businesses. Finally, in dialogue with the TURNkey research community, a common understanding of the design and operational expectations of the platform was developed. WP1 also produced a high-level overview of how the stakeholder requirements could be operationalized. Finally, potential non-academic routes to impact for the TURNkey platform are provided.

WP2 sees the deployment of a total of 132 TURNkey RS4D accelerometric and seismic sensors and 26 TURNkey GNSS receivers in six European Testbeds (TBs), which range in their tectonic setting, levels and types of earthquake hazard, population densities, types of vulnerable infrastructure and spatial extents: TB1: Bucharest, Romania; TB2: Pyrenees, France; TB3: Towns of Hveragerði and Húsavík (Iceland); TB4: City of Patras and Aegion, Greece; TB5: Ports of Gioia Tauro, Italy; and TB6: Groningen, Netherlands. The deployment serves the purpose of partially addressing weaknesses in existing sensor networks and aims at securing and demonstrating the real-time streaming of multidisciplinary data (e.g. seismic, deformation, structural response) adhering to a common format. These data form the basis of the development and operation of the TURNkey platform.

WP3 started with a state-of-the-art review and feasibility studies for OEF, EEW, and RRE for Europe. A methodology has been developed for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment for OEF purposes by taking into account short-term changes in instrumentally-observed seismicity. In addition, an online service on the rapid estimation of shaking using citizen information from smartphone apps was positively evaluated. Subsequently, an online service on the rapid earthquake detection and location estimation using citizen information from smartphone apps is now under development. The implementation of methods to update ground-motion models in near-real time for use in RRE is also on-going. Finally, the development of easy-to-understand estimates of potential shaking and its uncertainty for different end users is in its early stages.

WP4 started with a review of existing models for vulnerability and functionality assessment of structures and infrastructure components. The definition of Levels of Substructuring for the definition of exposure datasets has been elaborated and different types of signal analysis techniques have been developed by the involved partners to compute variations in the dynamic properties of systems due to damage. These algorithms are under testing against the results coming from a benchmark shake-table test. The LastQuakers (forum gathering LastQuake app community) and WhatsQuakers (WhatsApp group) online tools have been launched for experimental purposes. Several tools for damage assessment have been evaluated and benchmarked before their implementation in the TURNkey platform. In parallel, a Bayesian updating framework has been designed and tested, in order to update loss estimates based on field observations.

The first report of WP5 identified and developed metrics to evaluate the impact of the TURNkey platform on the earthquake resilience of urban communities. Then, a literature review on the seismic resilience and recovery of modern critical-infrastructure-community systems and a corresponding computational resilience/recovery modelling framework was completed. A state-of-the-art engineering-oriented decision-support system (DSS) has been proposed for OEF and EEW to determine real-time structure-specific risk-mitigation actions. The DSS has been applied to the Port of Gioia Tauro, a representative school building similar to those found in Patras, Greece, and a warehouse in Iceland. A DSS for RRE actions is in development for the road network in the Pyrenees. An analysis of the state-of-the-art protocols for response, emergency management and safety communications in each TB is ongoing.

WP6 has started with the development of the cloud-based TURNkey platform that can assist identified stakeholders to react at the earliest stage thereby reducing direct and indirect impacts and consequences of an earthquake. The real-time data transmission of the multi-sensor units deployed in the TBs and the integration of smartphone-based and social-media data have started feeding the algorithms and models developed in WP3, WP4 and WP5, which are being integrated in OEF, EEW and RRE processing modules. Finally, the cloud-based end-user module is being developed to display the results of the scientific algorithms.

WP7 deals with the exploitation, dissemination, and communication activities undertaken within TURNkey. The TURNkey website has operated since the beginning of the project, TURNkey accounts have been created on Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter and YouTube and the project flyer was delivered to all TURNkey newsletter subscribers. The social pages of TURNkey are regularly updated with the latest news from the project. Since the beginning of the project several meetings and workshops have also been organized with the identified stakeholders to introduce TURNkey, its objectives and outcomes.

WP8 oversees the management of the Project and aims, therefore: to establish proper procedures to manage and monitor progress and to report to the EC, to guarantee the highest quality of all project deliverables and to ensure a strong integration and scientific coordination of the project activities.
The literature reviews conducted across the different WPs have collected the latest state of the art in OEF, EEW and RRE. Further work has allowed optimization, combination, and enhancement of existing and new methods in these fields. The TURNkey platform under development is integrating this latest technology to provide the stakeholders with a tool that answers as best as possible their needs and requirements.
TURNkey participants and Testbeds