Towards more Earthquake-resilient Urban Societies through a Multi-sensor-based Information System enabling Earthquake Forecasting, Early Warning and Rapid Response actions

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - TURNkey (Towards more Earthquake-resilient Urban Societies through a Multi-sensor-based Information System enabling Earthquake Forecasting, Early Warning and Rapid Response actions)

Periodo di rendicontazione: 2020-12-01 al 2022-05-31

Earthquakes lead to the highest number fatalities and cause the second highest annual economic losses among natural hazards. The aim of TURNkey is to reduce future human, social and economic losses by assisting stakeholders in different risk mitigation actions before, during, and after a damaging earthquake via the TURNkey platform.

The project addresses three topics:
• Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), by collecting and analysing hazard information for the regions of interest and by monitoring the regions with appropriate instrumentation;
• Earthquake Early Warning (EEW), by distributing reliable information that an earthquake is happening as fast and efficiently as possible to relevant stakeholders; and
• Rapid Response to Earthquakes (RRE), by informing relevant stakeholders of the most probable damage scenarios in near real-time and by estimating losses.

To demonstrate the TURNkey platform, a total of 158 cost-effective TURNkey multi-sensor units (seismic and GNSS) were deployed in six European testbeds: Bucharest, Romania; Pyrenees, France; Hveragerði and Húsavík, Iceland; Patras and Aegion, Greece; the port of Gioia Tauro, Italy; and Groningen, Netherlands. A new casing for the seismic instruments has been developed, which is an innovative solution for structural health monitoring, and a new double-frequency GNSS sensor was developed. This is suitable both to detect very slow movements of ground or structures and sudden displacements triggered by earthquakes. The deployment partially addresses weaknesses in existing sensor networks and aims at securing and demonstrating the real-time streaming of multidisciplinary data (e.g. seismic, deformation, structural response) adhering to a common format.

Based on state-of-the-art review and feasibility studies for OEF, EEW, and RRE, the project developed improved procedures for each purpose. The advances in OEF include improved time-dependent seismic hazard assessment while a comparative study on the performance of EEW algorithms was carried out to test current and future implementations of EEW systems in Europe. Various aspects of RRE were also addressed, including accounting for constraints from ground-motion recordings and indications of macroseismic intensity from social media posts as well as updating ground-motion models in near-real time. There was a focus on improved communication of OEF, EEW and RRE results and their uncertainties to end-users.

Advances were made in the rapid estimation of damage and losses, right after an earthquake occurrence. A knowledge-based exposure modelling framework was created to evaluate and design vulnerability and fragility models depending on the accuracy and completeness of available data. Regarding the monitoring of exposed structures with seismic sensors, different signal analysis techniques have been developed to assess damage. Other solutions based on citizen observations have been developed and tested, such as the LastQuakers (forum gathering the LastQuake community) and WhatsQuakers (WhatsApp group) tools. Smartphone location data from the Earthquake Network app has also been exploited to assess the population exposure considering population dynamics.

Research was then conducted on the impact the TURNkey platform could have on the earthquake resilience of urban communities. A literature review on the seismic resilience and recovery of modern critical-infrastructure-community systems and a corresponding computational resilience/recovery modelling framework was completed. An agent-based model on post-shock rapid responses was developed and incorporated into the framework. A state-of-the-art engineering-oriented decision-support system (DSS) was proposed for OEF, EEW, and RRE to determine real-time structure-/infrastructure-specific risk-mitigation actions. An analysis of the state-of-the-art protocols for response, emergency management and safety communications was conducted and used to propose improved response protocols for the EEW, OEF, and RRE features of the TURNkey platform.

The knowledge and the various methodologies, and hazard and risk models developed have been compiled and integrated into the scientific engine of the TURNkey platform which also comprises the instrumental network and an end-user interface. Using demonstrators of the TURNkey platform, research was conducted to identify stakeholder requirements, looking at civil protection and first responders as well as critical infrastructure providers and other businesses.

During the project, algorithms were developed to improve ground shaking estimates for EEW that reduce the number of false/missed alerts and the associated losses. The citizen seismology part has been particularly successful with EQN (the Earthquake Network app), the first smartphone-based public EEW system. In addition, the felt reports collected rapidly and in large volume through the LastQuake smartphone app have proved efficient in constraining ShakeMaps and the combined analysis of crowdsourced and seismic data (CsLoc) for rapid location of felt earthquakes has become a fully-operational service integrated in the EMSC earthquake information services.

The extension of the vulnerability table to more refined and previously not considered types of structures makes the European Macroseismic Scale 1998 more applicable. Based on the latest advances with regard to deep learning, a neural network-based model has been developed for the long-term, system-level loss assessment of infrastructure systems following hazard event. This advancement serves as the foundation for rapid decision-making following earthquakes and as a new approach to urban resilience. In addition, updating prior loss estimates with various sources of observations via a Bayesian framework constitutes a significant step forward with respect to existing RRE systems, with the potential to facilitate crisis management and to accelerate rescue operations.

The innovative risk-informed DSS represents a significant advancement over state-of-the art decision-making methods for OEF and EEW. The developed algorithm can be packaged as a software plug-in to existing OEF and EEW platforms, transforming these systems into powerful end-user-driven tools that effectively promote and prioritise seismic resilience. The application of this DSS to RRE further demonstrates its usefulness in the emergency response phase, e.g. for selecting appropriate post-disaster travel options when the damage state of a road network is poorly known.

The TURNkey platform is a comprehensive software incorporating state-of-the-art methodologies in hazard assessment, risk evaluation and decision support to enable earthquake forecasting, early warning and rapid response actions. Compared to existing seismic hazard and risk assessment platforms, the TURNkey platform provides unique services for disaster management, taking advantage of the dense instrumental network and a cloud-based graphical user interface. As part of the risk management process, the TURNkey scientific engine can integrate and promptly process multi-disciplinary information and data from various sources.

General concept of the TURNkey FWCR platform

TURNkey partners and Testbeds

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - TURNkey (Towards more Earthquake-resilient Urban Societies through a Multi-sensor-based Information System enabling Earthquake Forecasting, Early Warning and Rapid Response actions)

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