Periodic Reporting for period 2 - BEYOND4.0 (Inclusive Futures for Europe BEYOND the impacts of Industrie 4.0 and Digital Disruption)
Berichtszeitraum: 2020-01-01 bis 2021-06-30
BEYOND4.0 provides research-based advice for policymakers and stakeholders on the impact, challenges and opportunities of the new digital technologies about to the future of work and welfare.
The digital revolution, known as Industrie 4.0 is disrupting our economies and societies. BEYOND4.0 focuses on a range of possible consequences of the digital revolution, many of which are already familiar concerns to policymakers: high unemployment, job and social polarisation, problematic skills development, and a rise in populist politics. With these predicted negative consequences, it is not surprising that quick solutions are being offered as remedies: a Universal Basic Income taxing the robots, more money for Industry. The solutions are attractive because of their simplicity and apparent decisiveness. It is here however that the real challenge lies, for these remedies are often offered without a robust evidence base about the nature and extent of digital disruption. How many will still exist once that evidence base is developed is a moot point.
BEYOND4.0 has five objectives: 1. Provide new, scientific insight into technological transformation; 2. Provide new, scientific insight into company strategies dealing with technological transformation; 3. Examine the impact of technological transformation on: a. quality, content, and distribution of work; b. skill needs; c. education and training; d. value creation by companies; 4. Identify policy options for: a. fiscal policy (e.g. robot taxes); b. welfare policy (e.g. basic income); 5. Identify social investment approaches and tools for inclusive growth.
BEYOND4.0 focuses on two main technological transformations: the digitisation of production through automation/robotics (also referred to as ‘Industrie 4.0’, as Germany was first with this strategy), and the digitisation of work through the platform economy (also referred to as ‘Uberisation’). Both have the capacity to eradicate jobs: the first by substituting jobs with technology; the second by using technology to replace jobs with micro-tasks. Both can also make existing skills, tax and welfare systems ineffective. Indeed, the current scientific and policy discourse is dominated by predictions of mass unemployment. However, the new digital technologies offer also new opportunities for welfare and wellbeing.
The digital revolution, known as Industrie 4.0 is disrupting our economies and societies. BEYOND4.0 focuses on a range of possible consequences of the digital revolution, many of which are already familiar concerns to policymakers: high unemployment, job and social polarisation, problematic skills development, and a rise in populist politics. With these predicted negative consequences, it is not surprising that quick solutions are being offered as remedies: a Universal Basic Income taxing the robots, more money for Industry. The solutions are attractive because of their simplicity and apparent decisiveness. It is here however that the real challenge lies, for these remedies are often offered without a robust evidence base about the nature and extent of digital disruption. How many will still exist once that evidence base is developed is a moot point.
BEYOND4.0 has five objectives: 1. Provide new, scientific insight into technological transformation; 2. Provide new, scientific insight into company strategies dealing with technological transformation; 3. Examine the impact of technological transformation on: a. quality, content, and distribution of work; b. skill needs; c. education and training; d. value creation by companies; 4. Identify policy options for: a. fiscal policy (e.g. robot taxes); b. welfare policy (e.g. basic income); 5. Identify social investment approaches and tools for inclusive growth.
BEYOND4.0 focuses on two main technological transformations: the digitisation of production through automation/robotics (also referred to as ‘Industrie 4.0’, as Germany was first with this strategy), and the digitisation of work through the platform economy (also referred to as ‘Uberisation’). Both have the capacity to eradicate jobs: the first by substituting jobs with technology; the second by using technology to replace jobs with micro-tasks. Both can also make existing skills, tax and welfare systems ineffective. Indeed, the current scientific and policy discourse is dominated by predictions of mass unemployment. However, the new digital technologies offer also new opportunities for welfare and wellbeing.
The project website, where one can subscribe to BEYOND4.0’s newsletter and download publications, is accessible from two addresses: www.beyond4-0.eu and www.beyond4-0.org. A LinkedIn group has been established to communicate and share knowledge and experiences.
Two summer schools were held in 2019 and in 2021 (see https://beyond4-0.eu/events/summerschool).
Several deliverables were produced in 2019, including the "Guidance paper on key concepts, issues and developments". We have written the ‘Background paper historical perspectives’, which provides insight into patterns of technological revolutions in the past, which may be informative for the future, especially with regard to policy recommendations in 2020. Another paper, published in 2021, investigates how regional entrepreneurial ecosystems have adapted to the information revolution as a techno-economic paradigm since the 1960s. All those publications can be found via this link: http://beyond4-0.eu/publications.
We applied a model to study ‘entrepreneurial ecosystems’, describing the agents and elements in a region which together constitute the change mechanism of the digital transformation within an industrial sector. An interview guide is developed to operationalise the model and to design checklists and questionnaires to be used for the empirical research, started in 2020. A research & workshop protocol was also developed to have a detailed map and planning overview of the activities. In 2020 we started with empirical research in companies, regions (‘entrepreneurial ecosystems’) and with workshops with stakeholders and policymakers. This will provide the first insights into the company and regional strategies with technological transformation, especially digitalisation. The research will continue in 2021 and partly in 2022.
Four Policy Briefs were published: Policy Brief #1 is a ‘’Positioning briefing paper on the project relevant to EU policy’’. Policy Brief #2 focuses on Industrie 4.0 in the context of the 4th Industrial Revolution as a digital disruption. Policy Brief #3 covers the topic of platform work, one of the two digital disruptions, namely the digitalisation of work mediated by platforms. Policy Brief #4 stresses the impact of Industrie 4.0 on skills and the demand and supply for digital competencies.
We also completed a comparative analysis on socioeconomic impacts of divergent (un)employment scenarios utilizing the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD. The results of the analysis were reported in a peer-reviewed article (Socio-Economic Performance of European Welfare States in Technology-Induced Employment Scenarios (DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279421000295). In addition, a PhD thesis was successfully defended. (Social policy 4.0? Empirical insights into the future of work and social policy in the digital economy. University of Helsinki, 2021; http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-951-51-7004-0).
BEYOND 4.0 has published five external Newsletters, which can be found on the BEYOND4.0 website (https://beyond4-0.eu/newsletter).
Two summer schools were held in 2019 and in 2021 (see https://beyond4-0.eu/events/summerschool).
Several deliverables were produced in 2019, including the "Guidance paper on key concepts, issues and developments". We have written the ‘Background paper historical perspectives’, which provides insight into patterns of technological revolutions in the past, which may be informative for the future, especially with regard to policy recommendations in 2020. Another paper, published in 2021, investigates how regional entrepreneurial ecosystems have adapted to the information revolution as a techno-economic paradigm since the 1960s. All those publications can be found via this link: http://beyond4-0.eu/publications.
We applied a model to study ‘entrepreneurial ecosystems’, describing the agents and elements in a region which together constitute the change mechanism of the digital transformation within an industrial sector. An interview guide is developed to operationalise the model and to design checklists and questionnaires to be used for the empirical research, started in 2020. A research & workshop protocol was also developed to have a detailed map and planning overview of the activities. In 2020 we started with empirical research in companies, regions (‘entrepreneurial ecosystems’) and with workshops with stakeholders and policymakers. This will provide the first insights into the company and regional strategies with technological transformation, especially digitalisation. The research will continue in 2021 and partly in 2022.
Four Policy Briefs were published: Policy Brief #1 is a ‘’Positioning briefing paper on the project relevant to EU policy’’. Policy Brief #2 focuses on Industrie 4.0 in the context of the 4th Industrial Revolution as a digital disruption. Policy Brief #3 covers the topic of platform work, one of the two digital disruptions, namely the digitalisation of work mediated by platforms. Policy Brief #4 stresses the impact of Industrie 4.0 on skills and the demand and supply for digital competencies.
We also completed a comparative analysis on socioeconomic impacts of divergent (un)employment scenarios utilizing the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD. The results of the analysis were reported in a peer-reviewed article (Socio-Economic Performance of European Welfare States in Technology-Induced Employment Scenarios (DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279421000295). In addition, a PhD thesis was successfully defended. (Social policy 4.0? Empirical insights into the future of work and social policy in the digital economy. University of Helsinki, 2021; http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-951-51-7004-0).
BEYOND 4.0 has published five external Newsletters, which can be found on the BEYOND4.0 website (https://beyond4-0.eu/newsletter).
BEYOND4.0 generates its objectives by achieving : 1. Building on state-of-the-art research and other EU projects, 2. Using innovative methods, and 3. Combining historical, EU-wide, regional and company level data.
The project generates three new outcomes: 1. Scientific understanding of new technology impact; 2. Diagnostic and developmental tools to lever technological opportunities; 3. Evidence-based support for social and competitive EU policy strategy. BEYOND4.0 carefully disseminates and valorises results.
BEYOND4.0 will: 1. Better address challenges of the 4th industrial revolution in the context of digitisation by providing alternative policy options; 2. Contribute to equitable, sustainable prosperity through scientific evaluations, co-creation and bottom-up solutions; 3. Contribute to UN’s Sustainable Development Goals 1, 2, 5, 8 and 9.
In conclusion, BEYOND4.0 provides insights and measures that help address poverty, equality, decent work, in formulating an alternative for a low-road Industry 4.0. approach, namely a high-road approach.
By achieving the five objectives BEYOND4.0 will positively impact 1. understanding of technological transformation, 2. successful identification of social investment policies, 3. enabling a robust European inclusive growth strategy, 4. creating a common understanding of new technologies, 5. strengthening innovation and wellbeing, and, in addition, 6. synergise research in this field across the whole of Europe.
Ultimately, BEYOND4.0 wants to identify and promote evidence-based ideas for reducing poverty and ensuring more equality and decent work can be achieved in the digital age. We believe that these aims are shared by the public – and voters. The EU also considers these topics to be important policy issues for political as well as more practical reasons. A practical reason is that the EU needs to have a picture of what an unemployed future would mean, socially and economically.
The project generates three new outcomes: 1. Scientific understanding of new technology impact; 2. Diagnostic and developmental tools to lever technological opportunities; 3. Evidence-based support for social and competitive EU policy strategy. BEYOND4.0 carefully disseminates and valorises results.
BEYOND4.0 will: 1. Better address challenges of the 4th industrial revolution in the context of digitisation by providing alternative policy options; 2. Contribute to equitable, sustainable prosperity through scientific evaluations, co-creation and bottom-up solutions; 3. Contribute to UN’s Sustainable Development Goals 1, 2, 5, 8 and 9.
In conclusion, BEYOND4.0 provides insights and measures that help address poverty, equality, decent work, in formulating an alternative for a low-road Industry 4.0. approach, namely a high-road approach.
By achieving the five objectives BEYOND4.0 will positively impact 1. understanding of technological transformation, 2. successful identification of social investment policies, 3. enabling a robust European inclusive growth strategy, 4. creating a common understanding of new technologies, 5. strengthening innovation and wellbeing, and, in addition, 6. synergise research in this field across the whole of Europe.
Ultimately, BEYOND4.0 wants to identify and promote evidence-based ideas for reducing poverty and ensuring more equality and decent work can be achieved in the digital age. We believe that these aims are shared by the public – and voters. The EU also considers these topics to be important policy issues for political as well as more practical reasons. A practical reason is that the EU needs to have a picture of what an unemployed future would mean, socially and economically.