Resilience of Coastal Human-Environment Systems

Project Information

CHES

Grant agreement ID: 838024

DOI

10.3030/838024

Project terminated on 31 August 2022

EC signature date 15 April 2019

Start date 27 January 2020

End date 12 September 2022

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Total cost

€ 212 933,76

EU contribution

€ 212 933,76

Coordinated by

THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - CHES (Resilience of Coastal Human-Environment Systems)

Reporting period: 2020-01-27 to 2022-01-26

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Coastal cities face an increasing threat from storms due to the growing coastal populations and the intensifying storms under global warming. Coastal ecosystems can significantly reduce catastrophic damage from storms, yet, the ecosystems are also under severe stress from storms. The goal of this project is to provide a holistic assessment of coastal ecosystem resilience to storms accounting for a diverse suite of climatic, geomorphological, and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, this project aims to:

(1) Create a geospatial database for damage to mangroves from historical storms around the world that occurred over the past few decades;

(2) Quantify the global storm risk to mangroves;

(3) Assess the storm risk in future climate scenarios.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

During this project, I created a global database containing information about historical storms that occur around the world over the past four decades and their damage to mangrove ecosystems (Work Package, WP, 1 and 2). I then developed a machine learning algorithm to model the storm damage by a broad range of variables including storm attributes, coastal geomorphological and environmental characteristics, and the pre-storm conditions of the ecosystems (WP 3). The global storm risk to mangroves was assessed under current conditions and projected storm activities in a warmer climate (WP 4). This work has resulted in peer-reviewed research articles, conference presentations, and many outreach materials.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

This project has developed the first global assessment of storm risk to mangroves with multidecade climatic records and earth observation data archives. The result highlighted the risk of major storms (category 4-5) and the potential risk shift in a warming climate. This assessment greatly advances our understanding of the vulnerability of coastal ecosystem systems to storms and how the vulnerability may change under climate change, contributing to the development of sustainable coastal management plans coping with climate change.

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