Resilience of Coastal Human-Environment Systems

Informazioni relative al progetto

CHES

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 838024

DOI

10.3030/838024

Progetto concluso il 31 Agosto 2022

Data della firma CE 15 Aprile 2019

Data di avvio 27 Gennaio 2020

Data di completamento 12 Settembre 2022

Finanziato da

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Costo totale

€ 212 933,76

Contributo UE

€ 212 933,76

Coordinato da

THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - CHES (Resilience of Coastal Human-Environment Systems)

Periodo di rendicontazione: 2020-01-27 al 2022-01-26

Sintesi del contesto e degli obiettivi generali del progetto

Coastal cities face an increasing threat from storms due to the growing coastal populations and the intensifying storms under global warming. Coastal ecosystems can significantly reduce catastrophic damage from storms, yet, the ecosystems are also under severe stress from storms. The goal of this project is to provide a holistic assessment of coastal ecosystem resilience to storms accounting for a diverse suite of climatic, geomorphological, and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, this project aims to:

(1) Create a geospatial database for damage to mangroves from historical storms around the world that occurred over the past few decades;

(2) Quantify the global storm risk to mangroves;

(3) Assess the storm risk in future climate scenarios.

Lavoro eseguito dall’inizio del progetto fino alla fine del periodo coperto dalla relazione e principali risultati finora ottenuti

During this project, I created a global database containing information about historical storms that occur around the world over the past four decades and their damage to mangrove ecosystems (Work Package, WP, 1 and 2). I then developed a machine learning algorithm to model the storm damage by a broad range of variables including storm attributes, coastal geomorphological and environmental characteristics, and the pre-storm conditions of the ecosystems (WP 3). The global storm risk to mangroves was assessed under current conditions and projected storm activities in a warmer climate (WP 4). This work has resulted in peer-reviewed research articles, conference presentations, and many outreach materials.

Progressi oltre lo stato dell’arte e potenziale impatto previsto (incluso l’impatto socioeconomico e le implicazioni sociali più ampie del progetto fino ad ora)

This project has developed the first global assessment of storm risk to mangroves with multidecade climatic records and earth observation data archives. The result highlighted the risk of major storms (category 4-5) and the potential risk shift in a warming climate. This assessment greatly advances our understanding of the vulnerability of coastal ecosystem systems to storms and how the vulnerability may change under climate change, contributing to the development of sustainable coastal management plans coping with climate change.

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