Resilience of Coastal Human-Environment Systems

Informations projet

CHES

N° de convention de subvention: 838024

DOI

10.3030/838024

Projet clôturé le 31 Août 2022

Date de signature de la CE 15 Avril 2019

Date de début 27 Janvier 2020

Date de fin 12 Septembre 2022

Financé au titre de

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Coût total

€ 212 933,76

Contribution de l’UE

€ 212 933,76

Coordonné par

THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - CHES (Resilience of Coastal Human-Environment Systems)

Période du rapport: 2020-01-27 au 2022-01-26

Résumé du contexte et des objectifs généraux du projet

Coastal cities face an increasing threat from storms due to the growing coastal populations and the intensifying storms under global warming. Coastal ecosystems can significantly reduce catastrophic damage from storms, yet, the ecosystems are also under severe stress from storms. The goal of this project is to provide a holistic assessment of coastal ecosystem resilience to storms accounting for a diverse suite of climatic, geomorphological, and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, this project aims to:

(1) Create a geospatial database for damage to mangroves from historical storms around the world that occurred over the past few decades;

(2) Quantify the global storm risk to mangroves;

(3) Assess the storm risk in future climate scenarios.

Travail effectué depuis le début du projet jusqu’à la fin de la période considérée dans le rapport et principaux résultats atteints jusqu’à présent

During this project, I created a global database containing information about historical storms that occur around the world over the past four decades and their damage to mangrove ecosystems (Work Package, WP, 1 and 2). I then developed a machine learning algorithm to model the storm damage by a broad range of variables including storm attributes, coastal geomorphological and environmental characteristics, and the pre-storm conditions of the ecosystems (WP 3). The global storm risk to mangroves was assessed under current conditions and projected storm activities in a warmer climate (WP 4). This work has resulted in peer-reviewed research articles, conference presentations, and many outreach materials.

Progrès au-delà de l’état des connaissances et impact potentiel prévu (y compris l’impact socio-économique et les conséquences sociétales plus larges du projet jusqu’à présent)

This project has developed the first global assessment of storm risk to mangroves with multidecade climatic records and earth observation data archives. The result highlighted the risk of major storms (category 4-5) and the potential risk shift in a warming climate. This assessment greatly advances our understanding of the vulnerability of coastal ecosystem systems to storms and how the vulnerability may change under climate change, contributing to the development of sustainable coastal management plans coping with climate change.

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