Resilience of Coastal Human-Environment Systems

Información del proyecto

CHES

Identificador del acuerdo de subvención: 838024

DOI

10.3030/838024

Proyecto finalizado el 31 Agosto 2022

Fecha de la firma de la CE 15 Abril 2019

Fecha de inicio 27 Enero 2020

Fecha de finalización 12 Septiembre 2022

Financiado con arreglo a

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Coste total

€ 212 933,76

Aportación de la UE

€ 212 933,76

Coordinado por

THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - CHES (Resilience of Coastal Human-Environment Systems)

Período documentado: 2020-01-27 hasta 2022-01-26

Resumen del contexto y de los objetivos generales del proyecto

Coastal cities face an increasing threat from storms due to the growing coastal populations and the intensifying storms under global warming. Coastal ecosystems can significantly reduce catastrophic damage from storms, yet, the ecosystems are also under severe stress from storms. The goal of this project is to provide a holistic assessment of coastal ecosystem resilience to storms accounting for a diverse suite of climatic, geomorphological, and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, this project aims to:

(1) Create a geospatial database for damage to mangroves from historical storms around the world that occurred over the past few decades;

(2) Quantify the global storm risk to mangroves;

(3) Assess the storm risk in future climate scenarios.

Trabajo realizado desde el comienzo del proyecto hasta el final del período abarcado por el informe y los principales resultados hasta la fecha

During this project, I created a global database containing information about historical storms that occur around the world over the past four decades and their damage to mangrove ecosystems (Work Package, WP, 1 and 2). I then developed a machine learning algorithm to model the storm damage by a broad range of variables including storm attributes, coastal geomorphological and environmental characteristics, and the pre-storm conditions of the ecosystems (WP 3). The global storm risk to mangroves was assessed under current conditions and projected storm activities in a warmer climate (WP 4). This work has resulted in peer-reviewed research articles, conference presentations, and many outreach materials.

Avances que van más allá del estado de la técnica e impacto potencial esperado (incluida la repercusión socioeconómica y las implicaciones sociales más amplias del proyecto hasta la fecha)

This project has developed the first global assessment of storm risk to mangroves with multidecade climatic records and earth observation data archives. The result highlighted the risk of major storms (category 4-5) and the potential risk shift in a warming climate. This assessment greatly advances our understanding of the vulnerability of coastal ecosystem systems to storms and how the vulnerability may change under climate change, contributing to the development of sustainable coastal management plans coping with climate change.

CHES-graphicalAbstract