Periodic Reporting for period 1 - INTERACTION (resIlieNT EneRgy systems for climAte Change and susTaInable develOpmeNt)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2019-08-15 al 2021-08-14
The researcher combined basic research and stakeholder engagement linked to existing activities of the host institution to provide expert support to partners in selected Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs ). Access to modern energy services and the increase in use of renewable energy are two targets of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7; furthermore, energy system transformations will be required globally for countries to fulfill their commitments, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. In contrast to the initial NDCs submitted in 2015, much greater effort is now being given to detailed modeling of country energy systems. Furthermore, there has been significantly more effort given to understanding the linkages between greenhouse gas emissions from the generation of electricity and those from transportation as the world moves toward electrification of vehicles. Supporting countries in formulating their objectives for climate change mitigation through energy system modeling has been a key activity of this project.
Three interrelated aspects of the transition to low-emissions energy systems were of further importance in this project. First, interactions between SDGs, both positive and negative, were taken into account. Second, since the transition from fossil fuels to renewables represents a shift from many decades of "business as usual," broad societal input and consensus is necessary for a “Just Transition” to be realized. The energy system modeling carried out by the researcher and colleagues, together with engagement with stakeholders in the partner countries, can help to elucidate some of the potential areas that will require careful attention. Finally, since energy systems change very slowly due to infrastructure already in place, long-term, low-emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) are increasingly being seen as a fundamental component of energy planning.
The success of this project was made possible because of existing relationships and funded activities already in place for the host institution, especially in the Caribbean region where much of the work took place. In addition, the researcher made other connections to energy planning and modeling projects in West Africa and in Latin America. In all cases, models of potential energy system transformation pathways were developed together with other researchers and country stakeholders, while considering connections between energy and other SDGs as well as the longer-term dynamics of the energy system.
Three interrelated aspects of the transition to low-emissions energy systems were of further importance in this project. First, interactions between SDGs, both positive and negative, were taken into account. Second, since the transition from fossil fuels to renewables represents a shift from many decades of "business as usual," broad societal input and consensus is necessary for a “Just Transition” to be realized. The energy system modeling carried out by the researcher and colleagues, together with engagement with stakeholders in the partner countries, can help to elucidate some of the potential areas that will require careful attention. Finally, since energy systems change very slowly due to infrastructure already in place, long-term, low-emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) are increasingly being seen as a fundamental component of energy planning.
The success of this project was made possible because of existing relationships and funded activities already in place for the host institution, especially in the Caribbean region where much of the work took place. In addition, the researcher made other connections to energy planning and modeling projects in West Africa and in Latin America. In all cases, models of potential energy system transformation pathways were developed together with other researchers and country stakeholders, while considering connections between energy and other SDGs as well as the longer-term dynamics of the energy system.
Outputs from the project include energy system models, reports written for stakeholders, , reports enumerating the connections between the energy system and SDGs and the Just Transition, presentations of results to stakeholders and government ministries, peer-reviewed publications and presentations at professional conferences. Prior to specific country engagement, a journal article was published on minimum per capita energy consumption needs as a prerequisite for achieving other SDGs. A conference presentation arose from this work, and a book for a Springer Publishing series on the SDGs will be started immediately after the conclusion of this grant project.
Working with colleagues at Climate Analytics and within the governments of Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and Grenada, energy system models were developed using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) framework. Reports based on these modeling results, together with other inputs formed the basis for working with the governments as they developed their revised NDCs. A peer-reviewed paper on Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) arose from work in the Caribbean. OTEC can serve as a multi-faceted complement to solar and wind power in a 100% renewable energy system. In the paper, the researcher and colleagues showed how OTEC, as mapped for all countries in the region, can for some countries be part of a system with high renewable percentage and decreased costs compared to currently existing systems.
In West Africa, the researcher worked with colleagues at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and participated in workshops in Ghana and Burkina Faso with stakeholders to develop alternative scenarios for transforming their respective energy systems. The complementarity of hydropower, wind and solar in West Africa was the topic of another peer-reviewed paper; another paper is in preparation based specifically on the LEAP scenarios and, connections to meeting the SDGs. Finally, the researcher worked on a project to model NDC energy system scenarios for the Ivory Coast, with (remotely-held)workshops held to build capacity in using LEAP. The researcher worked with a colleague in Bolivia on modeling scenarios for energy system pathways using the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS). A manuscript on this work has been submitted for publication. Finally, the researcher worked on several energy system modeling projects for industrialized countries. In each case these were related to universal challenges of energy system transformation. Rapid decarbonization of the Australian energy system was modeled using OSeMOSYS (developed with Climate Analytics colleagues and renamed to AUSeMOSYS) with results published in a peer-reviewed paper. In related work, the researcher collaborated with colleagues from a different research group at PIK to examine the potential for net-zero emissions by mid-century in four industrialized countries or regions, Australia, the United States, the European Union and Japan; this work was also published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Working with colleagues at Climate Analytics and within the governments of Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and Grenada, energy system models were developed using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) framework. Reports based on these modeling results, together with other inputs formed the basis for working with the governments as they developed their revised NDCs. A peer-reviewed paper on Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) arose from work in the Caribbean. OTEC can serve as a multi-faceted complement to solar and wind power in a 100% renewable energy system. In the paper, the researcher and colleagues showed how OTEC, as mapped for all countries in the region, can for some countries be part of a system with high renewable percentage and decreased costs compared to currently existing systems.
In West Africa, the researcher worked with colleagues at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and participated in workshops in Ghana and Burkina Faso with stakeholders to develop alternative scenarios for transforming their respective energy systems. The complementarity of hydropower, wind and solar in West Africa was the topic of another peer-reviewed paper; another paper is in preparation based specifically on the LEAP scenarios and, connections to meeting the SDGs. Finally, the researcher worked on a project to model NDC energy system scenarios for the Ivory Coast, with (remotely-held)workshops held to build capacity in using LEAP. The researcher worked with a colleague in Bolivia on modeling scenarios for energy system pathways using the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS). A manuscript on this work has been submitted for publication. Finally, the researcher worked on several energy system modeling projects for industrialized countries. In each case these were related to universal challenges of energy system transformation. Rapid decarbonization of the Australian energy system was modeled using OSeMOSYS (developed with Climate Analytics colleagues and renamed to AUSeMOSYS) with results published in a peer-reviewed paper. In related work, the researcher collaborated with colleagues from a different research group at PIK to examine the potential for net-zero emissions by mid-century in four industrialized countries or regions, Australia, the United States, the European Union and Japan; this work was also published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Developing countries have somewhat relaxed, but still significant, Paris Agreement reporting requirements compared to wealthier countries. Assistance in formulating new targets can help supplement the work of their own professional staff. The goal, however, should be to use the NDC revision process to build national capacity for carrying out future revisions on their own; the dual goals of assisting partners and of providing capacity-building training whenever possible were important. By the end of the project, the researcher had assisted at one level or another on six different NDC revision processes and numerous workshops, webinars, and conference calls with stakeholders.
The socioeconomic impacts and wider societal implications of this project are indirect in nature. Modeling energy systems for developing countries is only one input to a complex process in which those countries create long-term roadmaps for transitioning to a renewable energy based future. In working with partners in countries the exchange of information is beneficial in both directions. For the researcher, understanding better the different situation in each country provides context for evaluating realities that complicate idealized models and reports on global efforts to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. For the country partners, there is at least the benefit of more capacity building internal to ministries and agencies, as well as knowing that they do have support as needed to formulate ambitious goals for their countries.
The socioeconomic impacts and wider societal implications of this project are indirect in nature. Modeling energy systems for developing countries is only one input to a complex process in which those countries create long-term roadmaps for transitioning to a renewable energy based future. In working with partners in countries the exchange of information is beneficial in both directions. For the researcher, understanding better the different situation in each country provides context for evaluating realities that complicate idealized models and reports on global efforts to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. For the country partners, there is at least the benefit of more capacity building internal to ministries and agencies, as well as knowing that they do have support as needed to formulate ambitious goals for their countries.