Descripción del proyecto
Una evaluación de los efectos del cambio climático en el mercado de la alimentación
Es de esperar que el cambio climático acarree consecuencias desastrosas en los cultivos. El aumento de la temperatura es muy negativo para el mundo agrícola, ya que supone un incremento de lluvias torrenciales e inundaciones en campos; además, un mayor nivel de humedad facilita la propagación de las enfermedades en los cultivos. El proyecto CIFTRESS, financiado con fondos europeos, investigará los cambios climáticos, agroambientales y económicos provocados en el comercio de cinco alimentos de primera necesidad en Europa y el Mediterráneo hasta 2050: el maíz, el arroz, el trigo, la cebada y la soja. Para ello, utilizará sistemas de modelización de cultivos y de comercio, así como métodos de generación de escenarios cuantitativos y ciencia de redes. El proyecto revisará la resiliencia y la seguridad de las topologías de red en los escenarios actuales y futuros para el comercio de alimentos de primera necesidad.
Objetivo
Global climate change adversely affects crop yields and undermines humanity’s food security and resilience; while previous research has focused on regional agricultural adaptation, the opportunities and vulnerabilities of trade networks have remained less explored. In this vein, this research examines the joint climate, agro-environmental, and economic induced changes to the trade network topologies of five staple foods, i.e. maize, rice, wheat, barley, and soybeans, up to the year 2050 in the European and Mediterranean region. This proposed research adopts an interdisciplinary methodology drawing on crop yield modeling, economic trade modeling, network science, and quantitative scenario building approaches. More specifically, this research will enhance the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) Model with fitness network formation and gravity trade models to reveal the regional origin and destination of staple commodities. Through the enhanced model, the network topologies of current and future scenario staple food trade will be investigated and linked to the notions of resilience and security. Scenarios describing alternative dynamics of staple food trade network topologies for each crop will be developed through a comprehensive literature review focusing on agricultural trends, investments, and regional strategies and semi-structured interviews with agro-economists, agriculture policy specialists, and agricultural trade practitioners. The main innovations of this research project are the enhancement of the IMPACT model and in addition, the application of network analysis to interpret the ‘in-direct’ trade flow relationships which are not well captured by the current model. This will enable an analysis of climate change impacts on staple food trade in the light of the network-based configurations of network efficiency, redundancy, and modularity which are linked to the notions of food resilience and security.
Ámbito científico
- natural sciencesmathematicspure mathematicstopology
- medical and health scienceshealth sciencesnutrition
- engineering and technologyelectrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineeringinformation engineeringtelecommunicationstelecommunications networks
- agricultural sciencesagriculture, forestry, and fisheriesagriculture
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
Programa(s)
Régimen de financiación
MSCA-IF-EF-ST - Standard EFCoordinador
30123 Venezia
Italia