Projektbeschreibung
Wie sich Anpassungsmaßnahmen an steigende Temperaturen tatsächlich auswirken
Bereits jetzt sterben Jahr für Jahr tausende Europäerinnen und Europäer aufgrund der Umgebungstemperaturen. Dennoch gibt es immer noch zu wenig Informationen darüber, wie sich der Klimawandel auf die Zukunft des Gesundheitswesens auswirken wird. Die Gesellschaften haben sich Anpassungsstrategien zugewandt, um den Auswirkungen des zukünftigen Temperaturanstiegs in Europa zu begegnen. Noch fehlt es jedoch an Beweisen für ihre Wirksamkeit. Das EU-finanzierte Projekt EARLY-ADAPT hat das Ziel, die Triebkräfte hinter den jüngsten Trends in Bezug auf die Gesundheit der Menschen zu analysieren. Die Hypothese des Projekts lautet, dass die Gesellschaften zwar mit der Anpassung an den Klimawandel beginnen, aber die Wirksamkeit der frühzeitigen Anpassungsmaßnahmen im Vergleich zwischen den und innerhalb der europäischen Gesellschaften eher verschieden ausfällt. Die Arbeit von EARLY-ADAPT wird dazu beitragen, die Ungleichheiten im Zusammenhang mit der Anpassung zu erkennen, nachzuvollziehen und zu messen.
Ziel
Nearly 8% of deaths are attributable to ambient temperatures, but little is known about the future impact in a warming world. I conducted studies in high-impact journals showing that this death toll can be largely reduced if a substantial degree of adaptation to ambient temperatures takes place. Adaptation strategies have been increasingly implemented in Europe in recent years, but the last IPCC report indicated that evidence of their effectiveness is still lacking. I postulate that adaptation measures are starting to generate positive benefits for the wellbeing of societies, including an adaptive response to climate change, but the degree to which they are effectively reducing human vulnerability is largely heterogeneous among and within European societies. I aim to describe the major sources of vulnerability, and if, which and to what extent societies have already started to adapt to changing conditions. Towards this aim, I will use predictive models to quantify the potential beneficial effect of early adaptation strategies through the attribution of temporal changes in human vulnerability. For that purpose, I will generate a massive database with daily counts of death for different subdomains and spatial resolutions, including data for countries, regions, cities and neighbourhoods, together with the best available climate, air pollution, influenza, socioeconomic and demographic datasets. In addition, I will combine the best epidemiological techniques with weather and climate forecasts and climate change simulations to perform an integrated predictability assessment of mortality risks and provide a realistic re-estimation of the likely range of future heat- and cold- attributable mortality. Expected results will provide a better understanding of the real impact of adaptation measures, which is key for decision-making and the design of strategies minimizing the negative impacts of future temperature rises in Europe.
Wissenschaftliches Gebiet
- social sciencessociologydemographymortality
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesdatabases
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringair pollution engineering
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesenvironmental sciencespollution
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
Programm/Programme
Thema/Themen
Finanzierungsplan
ERC-COG - Consolidator GrantGastgebende Einrichtung
08036 Barcelona
Spanien