Periodic Reporting for period 2 - HABITABLE (Linking Climate Change, Habitability and Social Tipping Points: Scenarios for Climate Migration)
Período documentado: 2021-09-01 hasta 2023-02-28
In 2020 alone, disasters such as floods, droughts and storms internally displaced more than 30 million people around the world. Many more are moving because their environment is gradually deteriorating, despite not appearing in official statistics. Habitability is strongly dependent on individual perceptions of changes and other mitigating factors, such as the resilience of the socio-ecological system.
The HABITABLE project aims to significantly advance our understanding of the current interlinkages between climate impacts and migration and displacement patterns. An interdisciplinary analysis of the concept of habitability and links between migration change, including various methodological approaches, policy solutions, and gender considerations will allow for a more nuanced understanding of how climate change affects the habitability of socio-ecological systems.
Key Objective 1:HABITABLE shall develop a predictive understanding of migration trends under climate change, by identifying social tipping points at which socio-ecological systems breakdown and are no longer perceived to be inhabitable, leading to migration.
Key Objective 2: HABITABLE shall propose adaptation options [solutions] and strategies for populations affected by climate change based on an assessment of how migration redefines the limits to adaptation in different contexts.
Key Objective 3:HABITABLE shall identify, analyse and mainstream the gendered and social equity dimensions of the climate-migration nexus in terms of theoretical framing, data collection, data analysis, as well as research dissemination and policy engagement in key components of the project.
Key Objective 4:HABITABLE shall develop guidelines and recommendations to allow policies to better address the migration patterns associated with climate change, with the goal to improve the management of migration movements induced by climate change and with the aim of reducing the risk of displacement.
The HABITABLE project aims to significantly advance our understanding of the current interlinkages between climate impacts and migration and displacement patterns. An interdisciplinary analysis of the concept of habitability and links between migration change, including various methodological approaches, policy solutions, and gender considerations will allow for a more nuanced understanding of how climate change affects the habitability of socio-ecological systems.
Key Objective 1:HABITABLE shall develop a predictive understanding of migration trends under climate change, by identifying social tipping points at which socio-ecological systems breakdown and are no longer perceived to be inhabitable, leading to migration.
Key Objective 2: HABITABLE shall propose adaptation options [solutions] and strategies for populations affected by climate change based on an assessment of how migration redefines the limits to adaptation in different contexts.
Key Objective 3:HABITABLE shall identify, analyse and mainstream the gendered and social equity dimensions of the climate-migration nexus in terms of theoretical framing, data collection, data analysis, as well as research dissemination and policy engagement in key components of the project.
Key Objective 4:HABITABLE shall develop guidelines and recommendations to allow policies to better address the migration patterns associated with climate change, with the goal to improve the management of migration movements induced by climate change and with the aim of reducing the risk of displacement.
WP1 developed longitudinal survey data instruments for implementation, focusing on training the teams in Mali, Kenya, Ghana, Thailand, and Ethiopia. 1st wave of the longitudinal data has been collected from Mali, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Kenya. The team in Thailand is currently collecting data. WP1 also initiated the 2nd round of data collection in case study countries. Some initial results will be presented at the Royal Geographical Society conference in London in August.
WP2 designed and conducted remote FCM method training for all country teams and FCM data was subsequently collected in Ghana, Kenya, and Thailand. Data from Ghana and Kenya sending sites has been cleaned and preliminary analysis shows promising results, to be presented at the ECAS conference in Cologne. WP2 also leads the development of the exhibitions aiming to return results to residents of the data collection sites.
WP3 developed and conducted modelling studies at different scales, which have yielded some interesting and counterintuitive results (to be consulted in the submitted deliverables).
WP4 completed a statistical analysis of factors contributing to out-migration in rural East Africa to be submitted to a scientific journal. Results show that repeated environmental shocks increase migration probabilities for rural and agricultural households over time. WP4 revised and tailored the methodological tools for semi-structured interviews for all case study countries. An assessment of legal and policy instruments in Ethiopia shared with WP6 will be co-published with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) as a policy brief.
WP5 developed, and, following consultations with other HABITABLE partners, revised the data collection tools and conducted method trainings in all primary case countries plus Ethiopia (D5.1). WP5 coordinated with WP2 and WP4 for site selection and coordination of fieldwork. WP5 organized several work-package-wide workshops on the concept of habitability, conducted a literature review and drafted a conceptual contribution on habitability that will be submitted in June 2023.
WP6 advanced its research on legal and policy options in climate migration by consolidating the methodology developed around the HABITABLE key concepts which led to the publication of the Policy Brief on Legal and Policy Options on Climate Change and Migration.
WP7 conducted a comprehensive literature review to develop a conceptual model for climate change and human mobility interactions to guide the preparation of two sets of plausible scenario narratives focused on the primary research countries of the HABITABLE project. WP7 also conducted meetings with representatives of other WPs, the country teams, as well as experts external to the consortium with expertise on the primary research countries in the HABITABLE project, to begin preparing the scenarios.
WP8 completed the first round of gender and social equity mainstreaming activities with all other WPs to ensure that these key elements for the project are meaningfully integrated into the framing, research questions, and key methods of the project. In addition to this, and within the research component of the WP, research has been conducted from a gender and social equity lens in Thailand and WP8 has led three academic publications.
WP9 developed a stakeholder engagement strategy and handbook for the consortium, which was updated following feedback. A mid-term evaluation of stakeholder engagement was conducted and a monitoring and assessment framework was designed and released.
WP2 designed and conducted remote FCM method training for all country teams and FCM data was subsequently collected in Ghana, Kenya, and Thailand. Data from Ghana and Kenya sending sites has been cleaned and preliminary analysis shows promising results, to be presented at the ECAS conference in Cologne. WP2 also leads the development of the exhibitions aiming to return results to residents of the data collection sites.
WP3 developed and conducted modelling studies at different scales, which have yielded some interesting and counterintuitive results (to be consulted in the submitted deliverables).
WP4 completed a statistical analysis of factors contributing to out-migration in rural East Africa to be submitted to a scientific journal. Results show that repeated environmental shocks increase migration probabilities for rural and agricultural households over time. WP4 revised and tailored the methodological tools for semi-structured interviews for all case study countries. An assessment of legal and policy instruments in Ethiopia shared with WP6 will be co-published with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) as a policy brief.
WP5 developed, and, following consultations with other HABITABLE partners, revised the data collection tools and conducted method trainings in all primary case countries plus Ethiopia (D5.1). WP5 coordinated with WP2 and WP4 for site selection and coordination of fieldwork. WP5 organized several work-package-wide workshops on the concept of habitability, conducted a literature review and drafted a conceptual contribution on habitability that will be submitted in June 2023.
WP6 advanced its research on legal and policy options in climate migration by consolidating the methodology developed around the HABITABLE key concepts which led to the publication of the Policy Brief on Legal and Policy Options on Climate Change and Migration.
WP7 conducted a comprehensive literature review to develop a conceptual model for climate change and human mobility interactions to guide the preparation of two sets of plausible scenario narratives focused on the primary research countries of the HABITABLE project. WP7 also conducted meetings with representatives of other WPs, the country teams, as well as experts external to the consortium with expertise on the primary research countries in the HABITABLE project, to begin preparing the scenarios.
WP8 completed the first round of gender and social equity mainstreaming activities with all other WPs to ensure that these key elements for the project are meaningfully integrated into the framing, research questions, and key methods of the project. In addition to this, and within the research component of the WP, research has been conducted from a gender and social equity lens in Thailand and WP8 has led three academic publications.
WP9 developed a stakeholder engagement strategy and handbook for the consortium, which was updated following feedback. A mid-term evaluation of stakeholder engagement was conducted and a monitoring and assessment framework was designed and released.
In HABITABLE, we are conscious of the need to move beyond the state of the art and to make significant scientific and societal progress. PR1 focused on laying a solid theoretical and empirical foundation across all Work Packages, anchored in current data and knowledge while also advancing beyond the state-of-the-art with innovative concepts and methods. In line with the project's initial timetable (taking into account certain delays linked to COVID), PR2 was largely dedicated to implementing the data collection process and initiating the analysis. Despite the challenging context, and thanks to the meticulous preparation during the RP1, the consortium was successful in doing so. Around ten publications have already emerged from these exercises, most of which have been (or will be) presented at international conferences. The same goes for communication and engagement efforts with external stakeholders. The consortium has organised and participated in numerous events to publicise the project and the issues it addresses, with the aim of creating and preparing a community around the project ready to welcome and circulate the results when they become available (RP3).
Nevertheless, at the time of writing, it is still too early at this stage to establish solid, quantifiable and verifiable impacts, but we expect that our work will facilitate robust findings to foster a greater consensus on the interactions between climate change impacts and migration. The Project Coordinator and other partners were involved as lead authors in the IPCC 6th assessment cycle. We expect our findings to be integrated into future assessments through our existing IPCC authors, future following-up research projects, research projects (already the case), and by dissemination of high-quality publications.
Nevertheless, at the time of writing, it is still too early at this stage to establish solid, quantifiable and verifiable impacts, but we expect that our work will facilitate robust findings to foster a greater consensus on the interactions between climate change impacts and migration. The Project Coordinator and other partners were involved as lead authors in the IPCC 6th assessment cycle. We expect our findings to be integrated into future assessments through our existing IPCC authors, future following-up research projects, research projects (already the case), and by dissemination of high-quality publications.