Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy

Informations projet

QuantMig

N° de convention de subvention: 870299

DOI

10.3030/870299

Projet clôturé

Date de signature de la CE 8 Novembre 2019

Date de début 1 Février 2020

Date de fin 31 Juillet 2023

Financé au titre de

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Europe In A Changing World - Inclusive, Innovative And Reflective Societies

Coût total

€ 3 338 729,00

Contribution de l’UE

€ 3 174 860,00

Coordonné par

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON
United Kingdom

CORDIS fournit des liens vers les livrables publics et les publications des projets HORIZON.

Les liens vers les livrables et les publications des projets du 7e PC, ainsi que les liens vers certains types de résultats spécifiques tels que les jeux de données et les logiciels, sont récupérés dynamiquement sur OpenAIRE .

Livrables

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (5)

Technical webinar 1

The first technical webinar MPG M12

Technical webinar 2

Second technical webinar MPG M24

Simulation tool: young audiences

Simulation tool for younger audiences within Population Europes app and school materials MPG M36

Website: Focal point for project outputs

Website Tools to disseminate project outputs (UoS: website launch in M3, updates from M12, as per the Gantt chart, final version of the website M36, with updates continuing beyond the lifetime of the project)

Documentation: Web tools for data and simulations

Technical report Documentation Documentation of the web simulation and visualisation tools

Documents, reports (38)

Background paper: Conceptual approaches

Background paper on the conceptual approaches to uncertain migration futures (DUK: M5)

Technical report: Early warnings

Technical report Construction and assessment of an early warning model for European migration with exemplars UoS M30

Technical report: Microsimulation model

D82 Technical report Detailed data sources and model with validation results and sensitivity analysis IIASA M36

Technical report: Estimation methodology

Technical report The estimation methodology and results UoS M22 draft version to be ready by M19 to inform work in WP 8

Technical Report: Simulation of emigration decisions

Technical Report Simulation of the emigration decision process with application to migration between Africa and Europe NIDI M27 first draft in M21 to inform work in WP8

Discussion paper: European migration since 1990

D57 Discussion paper European migration since 1990 drivers and the role of policies DUK M29

Background paper: Climate change and conflict

Background paper Climate change armed conflict and migration PRIO M29 first insights into conflict migration to be delivered by M9 to inform related work in WP9

Discussion paper & policy brief: scenario results

Discussion paper and policy brief Main results of the scenarios IIASA M29

Background paper: Overview of European mobility

D4.2 Background paper: Detailed overview of European mobility in the past 10 years (NIDI: M16)

Background paper: The role of state and policies

Background paper The role of state and state policies in alternative European migration scenarios DUK and PRIO M20 draft version to be ready by M18 to inform work in WPs 2 and 4

Policy Brief: Output from 1st policy expert meeting

Policy brief: Outcomes of the first high-level policy expert meeting (MPG: M12)

Policy Brief: Pull factors of EU migration

Policy Brief The pull factors of EU migration UoS M36

Background paper: Insights on determinants

D2.2 Background paper: Insights on determinants of migration in diverse contexts (PRIO: M12; draft version to be delivered by M9, to inform related work in Task 2.3 and WP3)

Technical report: Uncertainty in scenarios

Technical report Assessing the uncertainty of migration forecasts and scenarios for short mid and longterm horizons UoS M20

Discussion paper: Report on scenarios

Discussion paper Possible probable and desirable migration scenarios and policy innovations needed to go from probable to desirable scenarios NIDI M24

Background paper: Emigration decision process

Background paper The emigration decision process foundations for modelling NIDI M18

Technical report: User guide to scenarios

Technical report User guide to customized scenarios IIASA M35

Background paper: Analysing uncertainty

Background paper: Conceptualisation and analysis of migration uncertainty (UoS: M11)

Background paper: Cognitive science and decisions

Background paper Cognitive and behavioural science approaches in modelling migration decisions DUK M16

Discussion paper: Impact of attitudes to migration

Discussion paper The impact of antiimmigration attitudes on migration within the EUUoS M20

Background paper: Expert opinion on migration data

D6.1 Background paper: Expert opinion on European migration data (UiO: M12)

Policy Brief: Output from 2nd policy expert meeting

Policy brief Outcomes of the second highlevel policy expert meeting MPG M24

Discussion paper: Pull factors of EU migration

D35 Discussion paper The economic and noneconomic pull factors of migration in the EU UoS M35

Discussion paper: Onward and transit migrations

D43 Discussion papers Analyses of onward and transit migration in countries where data are available and based on this estimates for other European countries NIDI M26

Background paper: Migration theory and implications

Background paper: Migration theory and empirical implications (DUK and PRIO: M9)

Discussion paper: Output from stakeholder event

Discussion paper Outcome of the stakeholder event

Background paper: Migration flows and stocks

D5.2 Background paper: European migration flows and stocks: New evidence on changing geographies and temporalities (DUK: M9)

Background paper: Determinants of conflict-related migration

An additional background paper on the metaanalysis of determinants of conflictrelatedmigration supplementing and expanding on D26 summarizing and discussing the insights and some of the knowledge gaps and potential for improving work in this area

Background paper: European migration data quality

Background paper Quality assessment of European migration data NIDI M14

Discussion paper: Role of uncertainty in policy

D3.2 Discussion paper: The role of uncertainty in policy on migration to the UK and the EU (UoS: M12)

Discussion paper: Scenarios with uncertainty

Discussion paper European migration scenarios with probabilistic uncertainty assessment UoS M35

Background paper: Surveys on migration aspirations

D2.1 Background paper: Survey instruments for measuring migration aspirations (PRIO: M6)

Background paper: Scenario literature review

Systematic literature overview of scenarios and set of experimental design (vignette study) underlying the qualitative story lines (NIDI: M6)

Background paper: Political and policy implications

Background paper The political implications of uncertain migration outcomes on European migration policymaking DUK M26

Discussion paper: Effects of welfare state regime

Discussion paper Modelling and estimating the effects of the welfare state on different types of migration taking into account the destination dependence UoS M32

Background paper: Determinants of aspirations

Background paper Determinants of migration aspirations PRIO M29

Background paper: European migration policy-mix

D55 Background paper The evolution of European migration policymix since 1990 DUK M19 draft version to be ready by M18 to inform work in WP10

Background paper: Expansion of the European Labour Market

An auxiliary background paper providing information on the successive changes to the composition of the european common labour market aimed both to aid modelling and to offer standalone reference for relevant reasearch

Other (1)

Programme code: Microsimulation model

Microsimulation projection model IIASA M24

Publications

Non-peer reviewed articles (3)

Surveys on migration aspirations, plans and intentions: a comprehensive overview

Auteurs: Mathilde Bålsrud Mjelva; Jørgen Carling
Publié dans: Open Research Europe, Numéro 3-145, 2023, Page(s) V1 [Peer review: 1 Approved], ISSN 2732-5121
Éditeur: F1000 on behalf of the European Commission
DOI: 10.12688/openreseurope.15800.1

Black swans and grey rhinos: Migration policy under uncertainty.

Auteurs: Jakub Bijak; Mathias Czaika
Publié dans: Migration Policy Practice, Numéro X(4), 2020, Page(s) 14-20, ISSN 2223-5248
Éditeur: IOM
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10074374

New perspectives for migration foresight and preparedness: Insights from the QuantMig Project

Auteurs: Jakub Bijak; Mathias Czaika; Michaela Potančoková; Daniela Vono de Vilhena; the QuantMig team
Publié dans: Migration Policy Practice, Numéro XIII(1), 2024, Page(s) 34-40, ISSN 2223-5248
Éditeur: IOM International Organization for Migration

Peer reviewed articles (16)

European migration governance in the context of uncertainty

Auteurs: Mathias Czaika, Heidrun Bohnet, Federica Zardo, Jakub Bijak
Publié dans: International Migration, Numéro Early view, 2024, ISSN 0020-7985
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/imig.13308

Experts’ assessments of migration scenarios between the Middle East & North Africa and Europe

Auteurs: Michaël Boissonneault, Rafael Costa
Publié dans: Scientific Data, Numéro 10(2), 2023, Page(s) 640, ISSN 2052-4463
Éditeur: Springer Nature Limited
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02532-1

Mixed-frequency VAR: a new approach to forecasting migration in Europe using macroeconomic data

Auteurs: Emily R. Barker, Jakub Bijak
Publié dans: Data & Policy, Numéro 7, 2025, Page(s) e3, ISSN 2632-3249
Éditeur: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/dap.2024.82

Exploring Migration Determinants: a Meta-Analysis of Migration Drivers and Estimates

Auteurs: Akira Soto Nishimura, Mathias Czaika
Publié dans: Journal of International Migration and Integration, Numéro 25, 2024, Page(s) 621-643, ISSN 1488-3473
Éditeur: Prairie Centre of Excellence for Research on Immigration and Integration
DOI: 10.1007/s12134-023-01091-z

Expecting Brexit and UK migration: Should I go?

Auteurs: Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Publié dans: European Economic Review, Numéro 157(1), 2023, Page(s) 104484, ISSN 0014-2921
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104484

Spatial Dependence of European Immigration Flows

Auteurs: Mathias Czaika, Heidrun Bohnet, Akira Soto‐Nishimura
Publié dans: Population and Development Review, Numéro Early view, 2025, ISSN 0098-7921
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/padr.70011

Conceptualizing and Measuring Conflict-Related Determinants of Migration

Auteurs: Marta Bivand Erdal, Mathilde Bålsrud Mjelva, Andreas Forø Tollefsen
Publié dans: Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies, Numéro Online First, 2025, Page(s) 1-16, ISSN 1556-2948
Éditeur: Haworth Press Inc.
DOI: 10.1080/15562948.2025.2499816

The Determinants of Refugees’ Destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU?

Auteurs: Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Publié dans: World Development, Numéro 177, 2024, Page(s) 106533, ISSN 0305-750X
Éditeur: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106533

Exploring Europe’s external migration policy mix: on the interactions of visa, readmission, and resettlement policies

Auteurs: Mathias Czaika; Marta Bivand Erdal; Cathrine Talleraas
Publié dans: Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Numéro 49(12), 2023, Page(s) 3140-3161, ISSN 1369-183X
Éditeur: Carfax Publishing Ltd.
DOI: 10.1080/1369183x.2023.2198363

A timeline of freedom of movement in the European Economic Area

Auteurs: Emily Barker
Publié dans: Open Research Europe, Numéro 2(133), 2022, ISSN 2732-5121
Éditeur: F1000 Research Limited on behalf of the European Commission

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries

Auteurs: Miguel González-Leonardo; Michaela Potančoková; Dilek Yildiz; Francisco Rowe
Publié dans: PLoS ONE, Numéro 18(1), 2023, Page(s) e0280324, ISSN 1932-6203
Éditeur: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280324

Migration Decision-Making and Its Key Dimensions

Auteurs: Mathias Czaika; Jakub Bijak; Toby Prike
Publié dans: The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Numéro 697(1), 2022, Page(s) 15-31, ISSN 0002-7162
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/00027162211052233

Toward an Early Warning System for Monitoring Asylum-Related Migration Flows in Europe

Auteurs: Joanna Napierała; Jason Hilton; Jonathan J. Forster; Marcello Carammia; Jakub Bijak
Publié dans: International Migration Review, Numéro 56(1), 2022, Page(s) 33-62, ISSN 0197-9183
Éditeur: Center for Migration Studies
DOI: 10.1177/01979183211035736

theory and practice

Auteurs: Fotios Petropoulos; Daniele Apiletti; Vassilios Assimakopoulos; Mohamed Zied Babai; Devon K. Barrow; Souhaib Ben Taieb; Christoph Bergmeir; Ricardo J. Bessa; Jakub Bijak; John E. Boylan; Jethro Browell; Claudio Carnevale; Jennifer L. Castle; Pasquale Cirillo; Michael P. Clements; Clara Cordeiro; Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira; Shari De Baets; Alexander Dokumentov; Joanne Ellison; Piotr Fiszeder; Ph
Publié dans: International Journal of Forecasting, Numéro 38(3), 2022, Page(s) 705-871, ISSN 0169-2070
Éditeur: Elsevier BV

Demographic and labor force impacts of future immigration flows into Europe: Does an immigrant’s region of origin matter?

Auteurs: Guillaume Marois; Michaela Potančoková; Miguel González-Leonardo
Publié dans: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Numéro 10(1), 2023, Page(s) 957, ISSN 2662-9992
Éditeur: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1057/s41599-023-02482-4

Categorical and spatial interlinkages within the European migration policy mix

Auteurs: Mathias Czaika; Heidrun Bohnet; Federica Zardo
Publié dans: European Union Politics, Numéro OnlineFirst, 2023, ISSN 1465-1165
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/14651165231209941

Other (16)

Five Facts Everybody Should Know Before Discussing Future Migration Trends.

Auteurs: Jakub Bijak; Mathias Czaika
Publié dans: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2020
Éditeur: Population Europe

Hotels and employment aren’t major ‘pull factors’ for refugees – here’s what really draws people to move

Auteurs: Jackline Wahba; Valentina Di Iasio
Publié dans: The Conversation, Numéro 25 August 2023, 2023, ISSN 2201-5639
Éditeur: The Conversation Trust (UK) Ltd.

Why Should We Care About Uncertainty in Migration Flows? Reasons and Challenges from an Economics Perspective

Auteurs: Emily Barker; Jakub Bijak; Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Publié dans: Population and Policy Brief, Numéro 35, 2022, ISSN 2512-6164
Éditeur: Population Europe

Asylum seekers’ choice of country is mostly driven by personal networks, not economy

Auteurs: Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Publié dans: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2022
Éditeur: Population Europe

Seeking asylum in Europe: Where do people go and why?

Auteurs: Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Publié dans: Centre for Population Change Policy Briefing, Numéro 69, 2023
Éditeur: Centre for Population Change

White Paper on Migration Uncertainty: Towards Foresight and Preparedness

Auteurs: Jakub Bijak; Michaela Potančoková; Daniela Vono de Vilhena; The QuantMig Team
Publié dans: Population Europe Discussion Paper, Numéro 19, 2023, ISSN 2512-6172
Éditeur: Population Europe

How Can Europe Better Prepare for Future Migration Movements? Understanding and Addressing the Root Causes of Displacements.

Auteurs: Jakub Bijak; Mathias Czaika; Daniela Vono de Vilhena
Publié dans: Population and Policy Brief, Numéro 26, 2020, ISSN 2512-6164
Éditeur: Population Europe

Attracting Skills and Talent to the EU. What should we focus on?

Auteurs: Silke Anger; Jakub Bijak; Peter Bosch; Mathias Czaika; David de Groot; María Miyar Busto; Jackline Wahba
Publié dans: Population and Policy Brief, Numéro 37, 2022, ISSN 2512-6164
Éditeur: Population Europe

Uncertainty in Future Migration Flows: Where Does It Come From?

Auteurs: Daniela Vono de Vilhena; Jakub Bijak
Publié dans: Population and Policy Brief, Numéro 29, 2021, ISSN 2512-6164
Éditeur: Population Europe

As Europe builds resilient labour markets, migration can help – but will not be enough

Auteurs: Emily Barker; Jakub Bijak
Publié dans: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2023
Éditeur: Population Europe

High-Migration Events and Future Labour Force in Europe

Auteurs: Michaela Potančoková; Guillaume Marois; Jakub Bijak
Publié dans: Population and Policy Brief, Numéro 39, 2023, ISSN 2512-6164
Éditeur: Population Europe

Migration Uncertainty: Feature, not a Bug

Auteurs: Jakub Bijak
Publié dans: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2021
Éditeur: Population Europe

Strengthening evidence-informed policymaking on migration

Auteurs: Jakub Bijak; Birte Fähnrich; Luc Leboeuf; Daniela Vono de Vilhena
Publié dans: Population and Policy Brief, Numéro 32, 2021, ISSN 2512-6164
Éditeur: Population Europe

Can the EU Attract Skills and Talent?

Auteurs: Jackline Wahba
Publié dans: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2022
Éditeur: Population Europe

Can one migration model fit all?

Auteurs: Emily Barker; Jakub Bijak
Publié dans: Population Europe Policy Insight, 2021
Éditeur: Population Europe

Navigating uncertainty: Understanding the impact of Brexit on EU migration to the UK

Auteurs: Valentina Di Iasio; Jackline Wahba
Publié dans: Centre for Population Change Policy Briefing, Numéro 71, 2023
Éditeur: Centre for Population Change