I first conducted a comprehensive literature review of the current research on parties' electoral strategies and how voters perceive the national economic condition. Next, I formulated the following five research questions, developed hypotheses for them, tested them empirically, and packaged them as five research articles.
1. How does the national economic condition affect voters’ behavior during elections? I find that when the per capita GDP growth rate becomes negative (i.e. when the economy contracts), when the unemployment rate increases, or when inflation becomes higher, voters are more likely to vote and vote for opposition parties – this is the case even for supporters of the head of government’s party. In contrast, voters become less likely to vote when the economy. For those who vote, they are more likely to vote for the head of government’s party – this is the case even for supporters of opposition parties.
2. Do voters reward coalition parties for government-ending conflicts? This question is relevant for understanding how, in the coalition setting, the economic condition shapes the electoral strategies of the prime minister’s party and junior coalition partners. I find that voters reward junior coalition partners who break away from the government due to policy disagreement, while the prime minister’s party is not punished for this type of government dissolution. In contrast, when the government dissolves due to non-policy conflicts, such as personal infighting or scandals, the party responsible for these conflicts are punished at the polls.
3. Under rosy economic conditions, how do the policies that junior coalition partners promote affect their performance in elections? I find that when the per capita GDP growth rate is positive, junior coalition partners win votes if they promote non-economic issues, and do so to a greater degree than the prime minister’s party does.
4. Under rosy economic conditions, how can opposition parties win votes? I find that surprisingly, changing their positions on and attention to issues do not earn opposition parties more votes.
5. Under economic decline, how do the policies that the head of government’s party promote affect the party’s performance at the polls? I find that this type of party, particularly left-leaning ones, can win votes by promoting issues related to traditional morality, law and order, and nationalism, and emphasizing these issues more than other parties do.
The research article on government-ending conflicts, is published in the American Political Science Review. The remaining four articles, currently as working papers, have been presented international conferences and workshops, and invited talks. I will submit them to international political science journals.
