Obiettivo
The project MARIA (Methods for Assessing the Radiological Impact of Accidents) was initiated in 1983 as part of the CEC Radiation Protection Research Programme. The aim of the project was, firstly, to review and then to develop further methods and models for accident consequence assessment (ACA) within the EC. A European ACA code, COSYMA (COde SYstem from MAria), is now available as a result of the many investigations performed within the MARIA project.
There remain a number of areas within the field of ACA modelling where further development and refinements are required, in addition the COSYMA code and its databases also require maintenance and some further development. These are the aims of the current extension of the MARIA project under the 1990 to 1991 Radiation Protection Programme.
SUSA supports the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of computer model applications in any field.
The influence of uncertainties in scenario, phenomenology, mathematical model formulation, parameters, and details of numerical solution algorithms on single and continuous value model outputs can be analysed. Uncertainty is quantified by subjective probability distributions expressing the respective states of knowledge.
All customary types of distribution are accepted.
Distributions may be specified by type and parameter value or quantiles.
Various options for state of knowledge dependance quantification are offered.
There is a choice between simple random sampling and latin hypercube sampling.
The required models are run under the control of SUSA.
A comprehensive set of sensitivity measures is available.
The analysis imput and output is printed for documentation purposes.
Graphical output of all analysis results is provided.
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis contributes to the quality assurance process of the computer model application and assists in improving software reliability.
Topics to be studied under the 1990 to 1991 MARIA project
This summary describes the work being undertaken as a part of the MARIA project by the Nuclear Research Centre Karlsruhe (KfK), FRG, and the National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB), UK.
COSYMA development and maintenance
The COSYMA system is an important tool for research and application, and as such requires continuous updating, testing and improvement. The COSYMA code will be maintained by KfK and NRPB throughout the period covered by the contract, and there will be further development of its databases by both organizations.
The increasing availability of small computers, and the need by inexperienced ACA code users of the COSYMA code as a tool, necessitate the development of a reduced and simpler version of the code. This version will be more limited in its flexibility, but will be consistent in its basic assumptions and data with the full COSYMA code, and will produce compatible results. This work will be undertaken largely at NRPB, in cooperation with KfK.
Under the MARIA contract, NRPB and KfK will participate jointly, with the COSYMA code, in the international ACA code intercomparison exercise being organized by the CEC and NEA. It is anticipated that the participation of the code in this exercise will indicate any weak aspects in coding and in data which will be improved in future releases of COSYMA.
Uncertainty analysis techniques
Continuing research will be undertaken into the application of available uncertainty analysis techniques to ACA code systems. An important task is research into techniques for the reliable and defensible quantification of the variation in model parameters, including the use of expert judgement. Both NRPB and KfK will be involved in these studies, together with other CEC contractors.
Model and code development
A number of areas have been identified where further modelling development is needed; these will be considered during the period of this contract. These include:
at NRPB there will be investigations with COSYMA to examine the effects of using models of different complexity in the area of atmospheric dispersion;
at KfK, wet deposition processes will be included in the foodchain module of COSYMA;
at NRPB, there will be further development of the urban contamination model EXPURT; onsideration will be given to incorporating EXPURT results in a COSYMA database;
at KfK, the economics module will be extended to incorporate specific data on the economic productivity of the region near to the release point;
at KfK, there will be further development of the health effects models used in COSYMA; in particular the method of calculating loss of life expectancy will be improved, and the dependence on dose and dose rate of both the dose/risk relationships for nonstochastic health effects and of the cancer risk factors will be included.
Campo scientifico (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifica i progetti con EuroSciVoc, una tassonomia multilingue dei campi scientifici, attraverso un processo semi-automatico basato su tecniche NLP. Cfr.: Il Vocabolario Scientifico Europeo.
CORDIS classifica i progetti con EuroSciVoc, una tassonomia multilingue dei campi scientifici, attraverso un processo semi-automatico basato su tecniche NLP. Cfr.: Il Vocabolario Scientifico Europeo.
- scienze naturali informatica e scienze dell'informazione software
- scienze naturali informatica e scienze dell'informazione basi di dati
- scienze sociali economia e commercio scienze economiche economia della produzione produttività
- scienze mediche e della salute medicina clinica oncologia
- scienze naturali matematica matematica applicata modello matematico
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Coordinatore
50667 KOELN
Germania
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