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Towards the prediction of stratospheric ozone

Obiettivo

The first major objective is to improve the treatments of heterogeneous processes in large-scale models. Models will be used to study periods when heterogeneous processing occurred and for which atmospheric observations are available. Model integrations will be performed including a range of treatments of the heterogeneous processes. The model results will be compared with data to establish the best schemes for microphysics and chemistry to use in the models.
In models of the atmosphere run at high spatial resolution, fine filaments of air are a ubiquitous feature around the edge of the polar vortex. It is clear that these filaments predicted by contour advection calculations and high resolution CTMs are indeed real features. That exchange between the polar vortex and middle latitudes, associated with the filaments, does occur is also not in doubt; the task now is to quantify the process and to establish the spatial resolution required in order that models can satisfactorily represent the exchange. A number of model integrations will be carried out to study this issue which is the second major objective of this proposal.
Model studies will be carried out using a variety of microphysical heterogeneous schemes, from simple to sophisticated, to understand the requirements for successful forecasting. Model studies will also be carried out, using our 3-D models run at a range of resolutions, to understand the requirements to model accurately the exchange of air between the polar vortex and middle latitudes.

To address the issues raised above a combination of models are required which describe the relevant
fundamental microphysical, chemical and transport processes. There are two main elements to the work
programme. These are: (i) the development of improved microphysical codes for use in the models and (ii) a
number of model experiments to test the model sensitivity to the microphysical schemes and to the spatial
resolution employed. Three major model experiments are proposed:
(i) A study of December 1991/January 1992 in the Arctic
An integration at low spatial resolution containing the models' standard treatment of PSC and aerosol will be
carried out, followed by runs at higher spatial resolutions. Runs (a) and (b) will be repeated throughout the
study using progressively improved microphysical schemes.
(ii) A 3-D study of the Antarctic ozone hole
This integration would cover the period May-October 1992 for which there is good coverage of UARS data.
A southern hemisphere study will provide a good test of the models' treatment of Type II PSCs. It will also be
interesting to investigate the extent to which the 3-D models reproduce the full depth of the 'ozone hole'; some
earlier integrations in 3-D have only produced modest depletion down to about 200 DU, compared to observed
minima which are much lower. This may be due to incorrect treatment of particle development earlier in the
winter, or incomplete description of the chemistry on the aerosols.
(iii) A long integration in the northern hemisphere
The rationale for this experiment is that, if the models can reproduce the observed Antarctic ozone hole
(experiment 2), they should also reproduce the ozone changes in the north. A recent northern winter will be
selected for study. For this integration it will be necessary to cover the period from November to, at least, the
end of March. This will test, for example, whether the models can correctly reproduce the observed descent
within the polar vortex, the observed partitioning of active chlorine throughout the winter and spring and the
reported ozone loss.

Campo scientifico (EuroSciVoc)

CORDIS classifica i progetti con EuroSciVoc, una tassonomia multilingue dei campi scientifici, attraverso un processo semi-automatico basato su tecniche NLP. Cfr.: Il Vocabolario Scientifico Europeo.

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Coordinatore

University of Cambridge
Contributo UE
Nessun dato
Indirizzo
Lensfield Road
CB2 1EW Cambridge
Regno Unito

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Costo totale

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Partecipanti (4)

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