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The development of active on-Line hydrological and meteorological models to minimise impact of flooding

Obiettivo

HYDROMET seeks to generate integrated models for forecasting the consequences of severe rainfall over a number of key river basins within Europe. Such models can also be used to assess the consequences of climate change, engineering works and urbanisation on river basins and coastal zones with a particular focus on Mediterranean areas. If these models are to generate reliable results a number of issues associated with the collection and assessment of data from remote sensing systems including radar and satellite must be addressed. A series of models robust to the uncertainties of these inputs will then be generated. Finally the models will be integrated to enable real time modelling and forecasting of runoff in river basins.

The WRRG University of Salford will coordinate overall project management and research activities. At a
technical level it will generate flood forecasting models, capable of assimilating results from the other research
groups and develop novel methods for the real time updating of model parameters. It is hoped that these models
will ultimately be combined with rainfall forecasting techniques to form the basis of a Flood Forecasting system
which can be implemented in a number of identified key river catchments.
Three distinct tasks in providing data for and validating the final models generated will be undertaken by CSIM,
supported by the University of Padova and FMA. They will develop procedures to mitigate errors inherent in
radar data such as ground clutter and variability of the vertical reflectivity profile and formulate general quality
control checks including comparisons with raingauge data. Optimum radar data compositions from a number
of scan elevations will be derived and spatial variations in measurement accuracy will be investigated. These
groups will then go on to validate the overall system through the use of satellite and additional raingauge data.
Access to operational data and expertise in the interfacing of hydrometeorological and meteorological models
will be supplied by the French partners, INPG and their associates LCPC. The coarse scale of rainfall forecasts
made using mesoscale meteorological models is not suited to hydrological applications. However simple
advection and feature tracking methods are known to be defficient under conditions of growth and decay which
are particularly characterisitc of the convective activity often associated with important flood producing storms.
these defficiencies have led to research into hybrid approaches in which a simple water balance model of a cloud
column is advected to provide finer resolution forecasts of rainfall fields. Recent progress has included the use
of weather radar and satellite data as inputs to these models.
An independent validation of key results will be undertaken by UPC of Barcelona. They will also support the
activities of the other research groups through the provision of specific technical support on the measurement
and assessment of key physical parameters related to the accuracy of radar rainfall measurements.
The NTU of Athens will contribute through the acquisition, analysis, preprocessing and merging with raingauge
data of remotely sensed measurements as a necessary step towards their use in lumped and distributed flood
forecasting models. Furthermore, the research will be extended to the calibration, implementation and testing
of models for real time flood forecasting in flood-prone areas in order to evaluate their functionality and
uncertainty.
Substantial expertise and experience in the areas of hydrological modelling, real time rainfall forecasting and
real time hydrological applications is brought to the project by the University of Ljubljana.

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Coordinatore

University of Bristol
Contributo UE
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Indirizzo
Lunsford House - Cantocks Close
BS8 1UP Bristol
Regno Unito

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