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Simulation of The Effects of Long-Term Climatic Change on Groundwater Flow and The Safety of Geological Disposal Sites

Obiettivo

Aims of research and applications - To investigate the extent to which future environmental changes may affect groundwater flow in the vicinity of potential rock-salt radioactive waste repositories and the migration patterns of radionuclides after release into the geosphere.

Degree of development of research. The programme involves the development of a coupled time-dependent, three dimensional, thermal/mechanical model of subglacial groundwater flow, and non-linear statistical approaches to modelling the future.
Recent developments in glaciology, hydrogeology, geochemistry, geostatistics and mathematical modelling, together with enormously improved knowledge of subsurface geology in Europe and the resolution of palaeoenvironmental change, now make it possible to model, simulate and test complex environmental processes in the past and extrapolate them into the future. In making predictions about the future of radioactive waste repositories, models need to be stringently tested. Using them to simulate past events and testing them against geological evidence is a way, possibly the only way, of doing them.

This project aims to investigate the extent to which future environmental changes may affect groundwater flow in the vicinity of rock salt radioactive waste repositories and the migration patterns of radionuclides after release into the geosphere.

The programme involves the development of a coupled time dependent, 3-dimensional, thermomechanical model of subglacial groundwater flow, the nonlinear statistical approaches to modelling the future.

A time dependent, thermomechanically coupled flow line model has been developed and applied to the supraregional transect from Denmark to the Netherlands, so as to match inferred Saalian ice sheet history. The model computes subglacial melting rates and O-isotopic composition of the meltwater. A series of sensitivity tests have defined parameter values within which the ice sheet must exist.

The groundwater flow model (METROPOL) has been aplied to the Netherlands aquifer to compute the flow field, potential field and transit times for a given meltwater input from the ice sheet model. The sensitivity of the model to changing parameter values has been established.

Collection of geological and hydrogeological data has comprised 2 components. The first has been the estimate of the pattern of palaeoclimatic change in north west Europe since the beginning of the Saalian stage needed to constrain the ice sheet and nonglacial rech arge model. The second has been the description of the hydrogeology of the area of our supraregional model. This is now largely complete.

The first set of geotechnical data has been collected and synthesized. Samples have been taken for geochemical analysis and are currently being analyzed.
Work programme:

Development of an ice sheet model to simulate Saalian glacial history in the Netherlands.

Determination of the upper boundary conditions for groundwater flow and a consolidation/flow model.

Simulation of the three-dimensional groundwater flow field within a supra-regional hydrogeological model extending from Scandinavia through Germany to the Netherlands.

Acquisition of geological and hydrogeological data for the large-scale groundwater flow model.

Applying and testing the subglacial groundwater flow model.

Development of a site-specific model for the subrosion of salt.

Testing the subrosion model at specific sites in the Netherlands.

Simulation of future changes.

Campo scientifico (EuroSciVoc)

CORDIS classifica i progetti con EuroSciVoc, una tassonomia multilingue dei campi scientifici, attraverso un processo semi-automatico basato su tecniche NLP. Cfr.: Il Vocabolario Scientifico Europeo.

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Coordinatore

University of Edinburgh
Contributo UE
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Indirizzo
Old College South Bridge
EH1 1HN Edinburgh
Regno Unito

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