Study of the symptoms of instability in solid earth including ecological disasters and ecological catastrophes

Informazioni relative al progetto

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: INTAS-93-0457

Progetto chiuso

Data di avvio 1 Ottobre 1995

Data di completamento 30 Settembre 1996

Finanziato da

• International Association for the promotion of cooperation with scientists from the independent states of the former Soviet Union (INTAS), 1993-

Costo totale

Nessun dato

Contributo UE

€ 90 000,00

Coordinato da

INSTITUT DE PHYSIQUE DU GLOBE DE PARIS
France

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Risultati sfruttabili

Study of the symptoms of the instability in solid earth including ecological disasters and ecological catastrophes

This project is focused on the instability of the lithosphere, leading to earthquakes, creep, other geological disasters and ecological catastrophes over months and years. The lithosphere is regarded as a hierarchical non-linear dissipative system. Its basic features will be investigated, particularly the scenaria of transition to critical phenomena. Features will be explored which are common for many non-linear systems and for most of the seismic regions and which are region specific. The project is intended to fill the gap between theoretical models and phenomenology of instability of the lithosphere and, accordingly, to provide a new theoretical base for its understanding and prediction. Three types of models will be investigated: interacting blocks, cellular automata and tectonic stress and strain fields in relation to seismicity during the precursory period of a large earthquake. These models will be tested on phenomenology of the observed fields, seismicity, slow deformations, stress, and magnetic field, in the regions of high, low and induced tectonic activity. The major difficulties are connected with the probable intermediate number of degrees of freedom in the system considered, the absence of fundamental equations, describing it as a whole in the necessary time scales and in some limitations of the database. The symptoms and scenaria of transition to critical phenomena will be determined, together with the basic features of the lithosphere as a non-linear system for models, selected with subsequent comparison with real regions. Techniques will be developed for coherence analysis of different body wave phases to determine earthquake source parameters from digital seismograms. These techniques will make use of the records of vast sets of small earthquakes. The techniques were created by some of the participants and the algorithms are now constantly available to the project, both in Moscow and in Paris for the Antilles.