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Productivity performance and potential of the NIS

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The main aim of this research project has been to bring together the expertise of researchers from Independent States of the former Soviet Union and Western European countries to study the economic performance of the former USSR. More specifically the project has focused on the reconstruction of output and productivity measures of the former USSR and Russia in comparative perspective. The analytical framework of this project has been an amalgam of output and productivity measurement and growth accounting, as used by economists, and national accounts measurement as practised by statisticians. However, during the final stage of the project, research was carried out focusing on the deeper sociological and historical causes of differences in economic performance. Within the project two phases were distinguished. Phase I Benchmark Comparisons concerned the comparison of output and productivity performance of the Soviet economy with the United States. Estimates on manufacturing, agriculture and the total economy were provided for several benchmark years during the Soviet period. The results suggested very large productivity gaps relative to the USA in almost all industries. Phase II of the programme, Time Series Analysis focused on the analysis of time series of the growth of output and employment in the former Soviet Union for the twentieth century. It compared official series, alternative series provided within the USA, estimates constructed by the CIA and independent scholars. The combination of benchmark results and time series, suggested that, even after large downward adjustments, Soviet growth rates have been substantially overstated. Phase II of the project also included recent work on the new series of real output and productivity growth in Russia since 1991. The project has produced a series of papers which were presented and discussing during a workshop at the University of Groningen in September 1996. The papers will be published in the monograph series of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre. A separate monograph written by Prof. Valentin Kudrov (Russian Academy of Sciences), reviewing the history of output and productivity measurement in the former USSR, will also be published in these series.

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