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Structural change in Russia and Ukraine

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The scope and nature of the adjustment of firms to the shock of liberalization of prices, trade and transactions have been studied. It was shown that firms do not remain in a holding pattern. They react to these shocks by adjusting their production and trade activity even though they cannot restructure much for lack of fresh capital. Firms adjust to shocks by reducing real wages rather than contracting employment. This is due to the insiders power on firms. In contrast to the sluggish output structure, trade patterns are rationalizing at an accelerated pace. It was also shown that starting from 1992, inter-industry exports have led trade restructuring towards Eastern Asia, the United States, Canada, Mexico and Western Asia. She interprets this result at the light of the political economy analysis of trade liberalization. A theoretical model, essentially based on search frictions, in order to explain output response of firms after price liberalization and its macroeconomic impact has been elaborated to try to reflect these issues. It shows that forms of gradual liberalization like the Chinese "dual-track" price liberalization may avoid or reduce the transitory output fall. An explanation for the sharp decrease in the official real output in Ukraine, since 1991, has been put forward based upon a shift from the official sector of the economy to the unofficial one.

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