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World dimension and uncertainty


The objective of the first part of this project is to build a world energy model able to include long term and global prospects such as transformation of world geostrategic elements as well as global energy supply/demand balance elements on constraints imposed on energy consumption by environmental issues.

The objective of the second part is to develop a stochastic modelling approach to account for elements of "uncertainty" in many forms and to introduce a probabilistic dimension to the structure of the model as well as its results.

The world energy system will be described, in the POLES model, according to a three level structure:

international energy markets
national or regional subsystem
techno-economic subsystems for sectoral consumption models.

During this research project, the following tasks will be achieved:

1) Integration of the supply functions for petroleum and natural gas by producers countries.
2) Integration of synthetic demand functions for energy products.
3) Integration of the prices-functions for coal, petroleum and natural gas.
4) Linkage of the elements with transformation blocks, especially the electrical production system.

The stochastic modelling approach, defined in the second part of the project, must achieve a number of objectives among which are mainly:

Add a whole new dimension to the information provided i.e. instead of producing just points (means) including measures of dispersion or even full distributions.

Enable a proper definition and measurement of risk leading to quantitative assessments of security aspects thus eventually extending to a quantitative valuation of security in the context of externalities.

Provide the essential elements in strategic thinking which avowedly is expected to deal precisely with questions of risk. In this contexty it is hoped to suggest methodologies taken from a wide existing body of theory


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Rue de la Chimie 150 Univ. Sciences Soc. Grenoble
38040 Grenoble

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