Exploitable results
From the findings in the TRACE project, the following main conclusions can be drawn:
- In the literature in Europe since 1985 almost all elasticities have been derived using some kind of modelling; elasticities which follow directly from empirical observations (e.g. before and after a change in prices or travel times) are virtually absent.
- In our view for most countries in Eastern Europe no material on elasticities of travel demand and/or value of travel time exists.
- In general, the average elasticities from the literature review and the runs with the 3 models (the NMS for the Netherlands, the Italian National Model and the Brussels model) show a broadly similar pattern.
- A 10% change in car time has a bigger impact on trips and kilometres than a 10% change in car cost.
- The short term elasticities of car kilometrage are on average more or less 50% of the long run counterparts.
- The cross elasticities of the kilometres travelled by public transport are somewhat higher for the short run than for the long run, because of the destination choice effect that only occurs in the long run.
As part of the TRACE project two tools were produced which national and regional authorities can use for a first order assessment of the effects on travel demand of changes in fuel prices, car travel times, road pricing and parking charges:
- The Elasticity Handbook, which contains 41 tables with elasticity values;- The PC programme TRACER contains a databank with many thousands of elasticity values (short and long run impact on trips and kilometres, with a segmentation by mode, purpose, distance class, urbanisation, parking class and public transport quality). Which segments will be relevant and the relative importance of the segments depends on the distribution of trips in a specific country over the segments. TRACER is a fast and user-friendly programme, which also contains a Wizard to create a situation (distribution of trips over the segments) which will give a reasonable approximation of the specific country or region that a user wants to study. This Wizard asks a number of questions to the user (e.g. mode split, GDP, car ownership) and then builds up the appropriate distribution of trips over the segments. After this TRACER can read in the elasticities for these segments and weight these according to the number of trips in each segment. The outputs of TRACER are tables and graphs of the elasticity values and the changes in the number of trips or kilometres.
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