Obiettivo
The overall objectives of the VAST project for all modes of transports are the following:
* to identify, given future GNSS options, the main present and future commercial applications of satellite navigation services, whether or not they be combined with other means of navigation, communication or information systems,
* to assess the associated potential market for each identified application,
* to assess the willingness to pay of each category of potential users for identified applications,
* to propose and assess cost recovery schemes against financial profitability, implementation feasibility and public acceptability,
* to propose and assess Public Private Partnerships (PPP) in a position to recover funds from commercial applications to finance (part of) GNSS2 development and operation.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS:
The numerous services generated by the integration of satellite navigation systems into transport have a great potential to support the transport efficiency, which is a priority for the European Union.
This leads to an important market of commercial applications (see hereafter) in all modes of transport where the number of potential users is extremely important, where a large demand already exists and where the development of positioning systems based on Galileo seems promising.
The identification of the market, the analysis of the potential benefits and the possibility to recover costs from those Value Added Services (VAS) should contribute to state on the feasibility to approach a self-financing of GNSS on the medium term and to assess the different options for public private partnership.
In that context, the VAST project has concentrated on providing appropriate information in order to help the European Commission to take relevant decisions.
Identification of GNSS applications:
The first work package of the VAST project has identified a very large number of present, emerging and latent GNSS applications and their related VAS.
It points out that all kinds of domains (road, maritime, rail e.g.) and users (single private, single professional, haulage companies e.g.) are concerned by satellite navigation and shows an increasing level of interest for this technology. The road transport segment is the most significant segment both in terms of number of applications (more than 50 applications have been identified) and number of potential users, and should be the leading satellite navigation market in the coming years.
As regards user requirements, the accuracy level required for most applications identified in the framework of the VAST project does not seem to be a critical point. However, integrity and service guarantees are often stringent parameters, especially when safety critical aspects are at stake.
Finally, the current need for many applications to have a reliable communication service, in order to maintain the full functioning of the related application, has been clearly underscored.
Present and future market for VAS.
The second work package has identified the present and future market for VAS over the period 2000/2020.
An important output is that current trends in technology field are re-shaping future scenarios. In other words, market players have to deal with two different developments:
* a first scenario, based on the assumption that the 'Next Generation GPS' will remain the core of the GNSS;
* a second scenario, based on the hypothesis of a successful deployment of GALILEO.
The results on the supply structure show that presently market players' behaviour is directly influenced by the uncertainty outlined above. The assessment of market players' behaviour has highlighted different positions with regard to the opportunity to support the EU strategies of development.
The main demand requirements is already perceivable and is similar to those observed in similar market (i.e. mobile telecommunications).
The final output of this second phase is the assessment of the potential market over the period 2000-2020 based on different scenarios.
The market dimension trends in monetary terms for both the equipment and applications have been estimated using current average market prices and a technology-driven approach for assessing Value Added Services.
The forecasted market for the equipment in road segment starts from about 700 million Euro and arrives at 3.5 billion Euro in 2008, in terms of cumulated revenues. For multimodal and rail transport the revenues will reach respectively 240 million Euro and 80 million Euro in 2008.
The forecasted market for Value Added Services and applications in road segment will rise from 5 billion Euro (in 2002) to more than 40 billion Euro (in 2020). In multimodal segment the market will probably reach more than 5 billion Euro in 2020. In aviation, rail and maritime segments, the market will arrive respectively to 900 million Euro, 680 million Euro and 150 million Euro.
Recoverable costs:
The assessed annual benefits (defined as the reduction of costs and/or the increase of profit by using satellite navigation applications) of satellite navigation for European end users are estimated at 15 billion Euro in 2008 increasing to 53 billion Euro in 2017. These figures exceed the cost of the Galileo system by far (averagely a factor 50). From this we can conclude that, from economical point of view, the argument to develop Galileo in order to make European economy less dependent on GPS is a valuable argument.
Benefits will mainly occur in the road segment, which is by far the transport segment with the largest potential user group. The benefits in the road segment are mainly related to open access services where the competition or co-operation with GPS will be of significant importance. Benefits in other transport segments are more related to controlled access services and are expected to appear later in time because regulatory and institutional barriers may delay the acceptance of the safety and security level.
The assessed annual turnover (of the European industry from world wide sales of Galileo products and services) in Europe increases from around 500 million Euro in 2008 to 2.6 billion Euro in 2017. World-wide, the turnover increases from 1.5 billion Euro to 7.6 billion Euro. So, the potential recoverable costs exceed the annual operation costs of Galileo. However, since only a minor fraction of these potential recoverable costs could actually flow back to the Galileo investors, we must conclude that the system will not pay for itself.
When we assume that 1% of the turnover can flow back (by a general levy on the world-wide sales of receivers and equipment) to the Galileo investors, recoverable costs would increase over the years from 15 million Euro in 2008 to 76 million Euro in 2017. Under this assumption, it is important to underscore that, at the same time, tax on sales income to the government will allow considerably bigger benefits assessed at 265 million Euro in 2008 to 1,323 million Euro in 2017.
Restricted to the sales to European end users, the recoverable costs increase over the years from 5 million Euro in 2008 to 26 million Euro in 2017. Tax on sales income to the government increases from 88 million Euro in 2008 to 174 million Euro in 2017.
Public Private Partnership:
Based on the generic characteristics of PPP schemes three Galileo PPP models have been selected (private concession, shared concession, joint venture) and matched towards the identified future market structures (payment), risk factors and financial mechanisms:
Finance: Although Public Private Partnership arrangements can be used to reduce the overall cost for the Galileo programme, substantial public investments will be required throughout the programme lifetime. However, the relative level of necessary public financial involvement will change in different phases of Galileo programme (as the result of changing risks) - from the very significant one in the early stages of the programme to more moderate, or potentially very low in operational phase.
Risks: There seems to be a slight tendency towards that the private sector has the competencies to manage and control the technical, market and financial risk factors, while the public sector has the competencies to manage organisational, political, regulatory, legal and administrative risks, which should make it possible to negotiate a rather clear risk allocation. However, especially in the first phases (definition, design) it is difficult to assess the extent and consequences of many risk factors, while the allocation of the identified risks seems to be easier to allocate in the build and operation phases.
Payment: The forecasted payment and market structure of Galileo indicate that the definition and the beginning of the design phase could be set-up as a joint venture (joint undertaking) as the risks in this period are quite significant. When the design (test and validation) and building (deployment) phase is entered a more precise risk allocation should be reached, which means that this period probably could be best suited with a concession contract with quite even public and private participations. Revenues are still too small in this period to set-up a more private dominated (up to 100%) concession contract. When Galileo is fully operational up to 100% private investment (concession model) should be initiated, which stimulate satellite manufacturers, service providers and other down-stream actors to join the consortium. This could be done by selling shares of the Galileo Vehicle Company to service providers in the operational phase and thereby gradually evolve the concession into a nearly 100% private concession contract, when the system is fully operational and revenues are granted with limited risks. The final hypothesis of the study is that:
* Joint ventures (joint undertakings) will be suitable for the design phase as risk factors are difficult to allocate ex-ante,
* Shared concession: is suitable for the building phase as risks can be allocated, while the need for cash flow increases, no market revenues are generated and the need for public finance is substantial,
* Private concession: is suitable for the operation phase as risks decreases and should be easy to allocate, market revenues increases, the need for public finance decreases and private investments raise.
In conclusion, VAST is the first project dealing with all economical and organizational problems (requirements, market, cost recovery and PPP) linked to the implementation of a European satellite navigation infrastructure. Moreover, the VAST outcomes have been already used as relevant inputs for the definition phase of Galileo.
EXPLOITATION AND DISSEMINATION PLANS
Firstly, project results have been presented to a panel of service providers and industrialists during the completion of the project. They have shown particular interest in these results and asked to receive a copy of the final reports.
One first task of the Galileo definition phase was to identify and classify potential Galileo applications and assess the related market. In that context, VAST results were considered and used as inputs of major importance. Finally, VAST reports when approved by the Commission will be included in the Genesis database. It will provide the means to for industrialist organisation to have access to these information under the control of the European Commission.
TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION:
The overall objective of this project was to assess the expected benefits of commercial applications of GNSS in transport with an emphasis on road and multimodal transport.
The first step of this study was to identity and provide a description of current, emerging and latent applications and their associated VAS (Value Added Services). To achieve this objective, "desk study", survey by direct interviews among a selection of representative players and brainstorming sessions have been performed. All results of this first step have been compiled in a database.
The second step of the VAST project was to assess the present, the future structure and the dimension of the GNSS market in the European Union from 2000 up to 2020. This has been reached performing surveys and direct interviews with major players of the navigation field and using relevant other studies as inputs.
The third step was to analyse the potential return of investment for a European contribution to Galileo. Cost recovery schemes had been performed taking into account financial profitability, implementation feasibility and public acceptability.
The results of the three first phases have been the basis of the fourth step which proposes different PPP models in a position to recover funds from commercial applications to finance (part of) Galileo development and operation phases.
During the project a panel of service providers has been organised to validate the VAST outcomes.
In practical terms, each step of the study corresponds to a work package ( WP1, WP2, WP3, WP4, WP5).
Management activities have been carried out for the entire duration of the project (WP6).
The following figure (Figure 1) illustrates the work package breakdown as well as the relationship between the work packages and the work phases mentioned above.
Campo scientifico (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifica i progetti con EuroSciVoc, una tassonomia multilingue dei campi scientifici, attraverso un processo semi-automatico basato su tecniche NLP. Cfr.: Il Vocabolario Scientifico Europeo.
CORDIS classifica i progetti con EuroSciVoc, una tassonomia multilingue dei campi scientifici, attraverso un processo semi-automatico basato su tecniche NLP. Cfr.: Il Vocabolario Scientifico Europeo.
- scienze naturali informatica e scienze dell'informazione basi di dati
- scienze sociali geografia sociale trasporti sistemi di navigazione sistema di navigazione satellitare sistema globale di navigazione satellitare
- ingegneria e tecnologia ingegneria meccanica ingegneria dei veicoli ingegneria aerospaziale tecnologia satellitare
- scienze sociali sociologia governance tassazione
- ingegneria e tecnologia ingegneria elettrica, ingegneria elettronica, ingegneria informatica ingegneria informatica telecomunicazioni
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