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ANALYSIS OF ENERGY FLOWS IN A CITY-REGION

Ziel

In the context of the geographical isolation it endured until 1989, the energy problem of Berlin was entirely based on the need to find a generation system which would be as autonomous as possible. In practice, electricity and domestic gas come from installations located on the territory of the city. This situation meant that large generation capacities and reserves were required, which greatly increased the cost. It also posed a major environmental problem. Energy generating plants located on the edge of towns have been using urban waste as a fuel since 1910. The energy planning approach must integrate a very large number of factors that are sometimes competing, in the area of regional and urban development, energy savings, environment protection or long-term energy supplies. A research group has therefore been commissioned by the Federal Government/Berlin Senate to formulate and assess potential in the area of energy planning and pollution reduction in Berlin.
FIVE SCENARIOS FOR FIVE STRATEGIES
The model was exploited on the basis of the objectives of the study with a view to a carrying out a prospective analysis.
Two main types of inputs were inserted :
* information on the current situation, in other words the maps of the calorific energy demand in three districts which are representative of the whole city, and cost/effectiveness analyses of various measures on rational energy use.
* the scenarios for five alternative energy planning strategies.
The procedures followed was based on an analysis of energy flows : on the one hand, according to a reference scenario extrapolating the effects of the existing policy, and on the other, according to the five alternative scenarios, in order to make it possible to assess the additional effects of each one of these. Economic viability of the measures contained in each scenario was studied as well as their impact on energy consumption, energy cost and atmospheric pollution.
The results of the study were used to facilitate discussions on alternative energy supply solutions, and to stimulate the influence of the natural gas supply contract on the relative weight of the various energy sources. These mainly concerned :
* identifying potential savings
* determining a number of recommendations regarding options for a future energy policy
* defining the means to be implemented by the regional authorities to apply these options. Among these are the energy saving measures which could be financed by reducing energy costs.
IDENTIFYING THE INSTRUMENTS FOR ACTION
The analyses identified the importance of a series of instruments to be implemented in order to achieve the Energy Plan. Efforts must be concentrated on informing the inhabitants and promoting the plan among the population, creating financial incentives, and finally on modernisation and reorganisation of investments.
This approach adopted went beyond simply the drawing up of an energy balance: it also involved obtaining knowledge of energy flows. Therefore, an attempt was made to identify all the elements in the chain, from primary input to final users. With the various factors comparing supply and demand, it was then possible to elaborate several regional energy scenarios by obtaining detailed information at every level of the chain.
For instance :
- energy losses in accordance with the source and method of use
- consequences for the environment
- consequences for the economy.
This flow analysis has many advantages :
- one is no longer confined to the simple quantification of final energy, and demand can also be analysed in detail
- the dynamic analysis of the impact of change on the energy market can be integrated, for instance the replacement of oil by natural gas
- the graphic representation reflects the extent of energy flows.

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SENATOR FUER WISSENSCHAFT UND FORSCHUNG
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BREDTSCHNEIDERSTREET 5
1000 Berlin
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