Obiettivo
A vast region of almost 9 million inhabitants undergoing total economic and technological change. Lombardy provides a singular contrast between a developed region, which already has the characteristics of a "post-industrial" society, and the still significant presence of traditional sectors.
Thus the region is an instructive energy "laboratory", notably with regard to assessing the impact of advanced industrial and tertiary processing on social ways of life (in the urban and transport areas, etc). Thus it seemed interesting to proceed with planning that would result in the elaboration of regional energy budgets and possible scenarios for the development of energy demand up to 1995.
LONG-TERM ENERGY NEEDS
On the basis of this assessment work, total regional energy balances from 1978 to 1985 were established. Moreover, thanks to previous information, it was possible to extrapolate this work over a longer period (1963-1985), which enabled the characteristics of the Lombardy system to be identified more effectively from the point of view of substitution for the sources used and of relations between energy and economy.
TWO 1995 SCENARIOS
The seven areas analyzed enabled two scenarios to be created:
* a "conservative" scenario characterised by a hypothesis of virtual stabilisation of global consumption (0.4% per year compared with 1.2% in the years between 1970 and 1985), during which a slight rise in demand by transport and the tertiary sector would be compensated by a slight drop in industrial and domestic requirements.
* a "dynamic" scenario characterized by :
- an average rate of increase of total consumption which very slightly accentuates the growth in the previous lengthy trend (about 1.3% per annum)
- this maintenance of growth is a result of structural changes in the relative weight of the sectors. The relative drop in the share of energy consumption by industry has double significance: it reflects greater diversification of economic activities towards activities that consume less, such as services, but it also means that new industrial investments are being concentrated in the "energy saving" dimension, or are still being made in sectors with low energy consumption.
Thus, the energy planning approach adopted in Lombardy meant that an analysis could be made of the dynamic relationship between energy and the other socio-economic variables in an advanced industrial zone which is undergoing rapid change. The methodology elaborated to forecast energy demand up to 1995 provides a useful instrument for decision making by the authorities in the area of regional energy.
SEVEN AREAS ANALYSED
The work of gathering and analysing data covered seven areas :
* The "mega-trends" of the Lombardy economy (in terms of GDP, sectoral value added, external trade, investment, demography, employment, etc.). A synthesis of the potential development of the Lombardy economy based on these trends was drawn up, with a distinction between four significant areas of activities :
- accelerated growth activities (transport, communications, services to enterprises, etc.)
- activities in which the region is highly specialised (credit, education, research, etc.)
- activities subject to a process of decentralisation of production (electrical equipment, beverages, plastics, textiles and confection, rubber, metalwork industries, dairy industries)
- activities subjected to profound restructuring (basic "energy intensive" industries such as chemicals and paper, and the foodstuffs industry)
* Industry : the analysis naturally covered the major energy consuming sectors (iron, steel, chemicals, paper, cement). It was calculated, for instance, that consumption in these "energy intensive" sectors amounted to half of total energy consumption for industry in the Lombardy region.
* Dwellings and the tertiary sector : the approach was to separate consumption for heating (using in particular oil products and natural gas) and electrical consumption.
* Transport this analysis, which concentrated in particular on road traffic, was also split into transport of people and goods. * Energy supply : a survey was carried out on the structure of the sector and its development prospects, reviewing the four main energy vectors (oil and derivatives, natural gas, coal, electricity).
* Renewable energy sources and rational energy use; the most significant local experiences were examined.
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