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COmbining Probable TRAjectories

Deliverables

Techniques to determine trajectory uncertainty and modelling V2

This report addresses the techniques and calculation methods needed to describe a trajectory in terms of probability

Quantification of trajectory prediction uncertainty

Framework for quantifying the trajectory prediction uncertainty, associating uncertainty boundaries around the nominal (deterministic) values and the future projections of the aircraft state variables

Probabilistic traffic demand Models V1

This report will present the different models generated following the proposed approaches. The report will include both the textual description of the models as well as the models themselves.

Exploitation & Dissemination plan V1

Exploitation and Dissemination plan

COPTRA Report

This report will gather the conclusions of the project based on quantitative and qualitative results, as well as recommendations for further research.

Techniques to determine trajectory uncertainty and modelling V1

This report addresses the techniques and calculation methods needed to describe a trajectory in terms of probability

Exploitation & Dissemination report V2

Exploitation & Dissemination report

Exploitation & Dissemination report V1

Exploitation & Dissemination report

Exploitation & Dissemination plan V2

Exploitation and Dissemination plan

Probabilistic Traffic Demand Models V2

This report will present the different models generated following the proposed approaches. The report will include both the textual description of the models as well as the models themselves.

ATC tools

This report will focus on the validation aspects of the use of probabilistic traffic demand applied to ATC planning. The report will describe the work done in the models and prototypes as well as the exercises performed to validate them.

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Publications

A Probabilistic Model for Precedence Rules and Reactionary Delay in Air Traffic Management

Author(s): Florentin Goyens François Gonze Andrea Simonetto Etienne Huens Jean Boucquey Raphaël M. Jungers
Published in: USA & Europe ICRAT conference 2018, 2018

Combining Probable Trajectories in Air Traffic Management

Author(s): François Gonze Jean Boucquey Raphaël Jungers
Published in: Conference 35th Benelux Meeting in Systems and Control The Netherlands March 2016, 2016

Towards Advanced Trajectory Uncertainty Quantification: COPTRA

Author(s): Emre Koyuncu José M. Cordero
Published in: International Workshop on Meteorology and Air Traffic Management, 2017

The Need for Computational Tools for the European Air Traffic Network

Author(s): Andrea Simonetto François Gonze Raphaël M. Jungers
Published in: Conference EUCCO 2016, 2016

Probabilistic Traffic Models for Occupancy Counting

Author(s): Jean Boucquey Andrew Hately, Richard Irvine Stefan Steurs François Gonze Etienne Huens Raphael M. Jungers
Published in: SESAR Innovation Days 2017, 2017

Assessing the viability of an occupancy count prediction model

Author(s): Nicolas Suarez Iciar Garcia-Ovies Danlin Zheng Jean Boucquey
Published in: SESAR Innovation Days 2017, 2017

Analytical Quantification of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainties

Author(s): Enrique Casado
Published in: International Workshop on Uncertainty and Air Traffic Management, 2017

Probabilistic Occupancy Counts and Flight Criticality Measures for ATM

Author(s): François Gonze Andrea Simonetto Etienne Huens Jean Boucquey Raphaël M. Jungers
Published in: 36th Benelux Meeting in Systems and Control, 2017

MANAGING AIR TRANSPORT DEMAND AND CAPACITY VIA STOCHASTIC MODELLING APPROACH

Author(s): Barıs Baspınar Emre Koyuncu
Published in: 9th Ankara International Aerospace Conference, Issue Yearly, 2017

Takeoff weight error recovery for tactical trajectory prediction automaton of air traffic control operator

Author(s): Mevlut Uzun, Baris Baspinar, Emre Koyuncu, Gokhan Inalhan
Published in: 2017 IEEE/AIAA 36th Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), 2017, Page(s) 1-7
DOI: 10.1109/dasc.2017.8102049

Probabilistic Occupancy Counts and Flight Criticality Measures for ATM

Author(s): François Gonze, Andrea Simonetto, Etienne Huens, Jean Boucquey, Raphael M. Jungers
Published in: Proceedings of the 12th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar, 2017

Quantification of Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty using Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Author(s): Enrique Casado, Marco La Civita, Miguel Vilaplana, Euan W. McGookin
Published in: 36th Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), Issue 36, 2017

Demand and Capacity Balancing Through Probabilistic Queuing Theory and Ground Holding Program for European Air Transportation Network

Author(s): Emre Koyuncu, Barış Başpınar
Published in: ANADOLU UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY A - Applied Sciences and Engineering, 2017, Page(s) 1-1, ISSN 1302-3160
DOI: 10.18038/aubtda.268872

Data-Driven Trajectory Uncertainty Quantification For Climbing Aircraft To Improve Ground-Based Trajectory Prediction

Author(s): Mevlüt Uzun, Emre Koyuncu
Published in: ANADOLU UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY A - Applied Sciences and Engineering, 2017, Page(s) 1-1, ISSN 1302-3160
DOI: 10.18038/aubtda.270074

Large Scale Data-Driven Delay Distribution Models of European Air Traffic Flow Network

Author(s): Baris Baspinar, Emre Koyuncu, Gokhan Inalhan
Published in: Transportation Research Procedia, Issue 22, 2017, Page(s) 499-508, ISSN 2352-1465
DOI: 10.1016/j.trpro.2017.03.068

Analysis of Delay Characteristics of European Air Traffic through a Data-Driven Airport-Centric Queuing Network Model

Author(s): Baris Baspinar, N. Kemal Ure, Emre Koyuncu, Gokhan Inalhan
Published in: IFAC-PapersOnLine, Issue 49/3, 2016, Page(s) 359-364, ISSN 2405-8963
DOI: 10.1016/j.ifacol.2016.07.060