Objective The aim of BAPS is to develop a ground-breaking simulation model of international migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their social networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The project will transform the study of migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority EU policy area – by offering a step change in the way it can be understood, predicted and managed. In this way, BAPS will effectively integrate behavioural and social theory with modelling.To develop micro-foundations for migration studies, model design will follow cutting-edge developments in demography, statistics, cognitive psychology and computer science. BAPS will also offer a pioneering environment for applying the findings in practice through a bespoke modelling language. Bayesian statistical principles will be used to design innovative computer experiments, and learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions.In BAPS, we will collate available information for migration models; build and test the simulations by applying experimental design principles to enhance our knowledge of migration processes; collect information on the underpinning decision-making mechanisms through psychological experiments; and design software for implementing Bayesian agent-based models in practice. The project will use various information sources to build models bottom-up, filling an important epistemological gap in demography.BAPS will be carried out by the Allianz European Demographer 2015, recognised as a leader in the field for methodological innovation, directing an interdisciplinary team with expertise in demography, agent-based models, statistical analysis of uncertainty, meta-cognition, and computer simulations. The project will open up exciting research possibilities beyond demography, and will generate both academic and practical impact, offering methodological advice for policy-relevant simulations. Fields of science natural sciencescomputer and information sciencessoftwaresocial sciencessociologydemographyhuman migrationssocial sciencespsychologycognitive psychologynatural sciencesmathematicsapplied mathematicsmathematical model Programme(s) H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme Topic(s) ERC-2016-COG - ERC Consolidator Grant Call for proposal ERC-2016-COG See other projects for this call Funding Scheme ERC-COG - Consolidator Grant Host institution UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON Net EU contribution € 1 413 286,25 Address Highfield SO17 1BJ Southampton United Kingdom See on map Region South East (England) Hampshire and Isle of Wight Southampton Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Total cost € 1 413 286,25 Beneficiaries (2) Sort alphabetically Sort by Net EU contribution Expand all Collapse all UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON United Kingdom Net EU contribution € 1 413 286,25 Address Highfield SO17 1BJ Southampton See on map Region South East (England) Hampshire and Isle of Wight Southampton Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Total cost € 1 413 286,25 UNIVERSITAET ROSTOCK Germany Net EU contribution € 42 303,75 Address UNIVERSITATSPLATZ 1 18055 Rostock See on map Region Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Rostock, Kreisfreie Stadt Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Total cost € 42 303,75
