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The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Integrated Risk Management Decisions

Objective

The central objective of SECLI-FIRM is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes, primarily in the energy sector, but also in the water sector. Specifically for the energy sector, SECLI-CLIM will assess the impact on operational planning and portfolio management, such as hedging and asset optimization, thus enabling quantification of the value-add provided by seasonal forecasts which have been calibrated, evaluated and tailored for each specific application. Improvements in management decisions will ultimately lead to an improved supply-demand balance and therefore to a more efficient energy system, particularly with respect to renewable energy, with corresponding benefits for climate change mitigation.

A simple, but effective, methodology will be used to assess value added. A control case will only utilise climatological conditions based on historical averaged values – currently the most common approach – while a test case will also consider individually optimised and tailored state-of-the-art probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This will be done for nine case studies for Europe and South America: recent seasons with anomalous/extreme climate conditions leading to problematic and quantifiable impacts for the energy and/or water industry. Crucially for success, the case studies will be co-designed by industrial and research partners.

These case studies will provide the basis for developing pilot climate services for a number of specific applications, allowing evaluation of the added value of near real-time information for decision making. Thus SECLI-FIRM will promote research advances in the optimization of seasonal forecasts for specific applications (e.g. by evaluating both local processes and large-scale teleconnections), as well as promoting the uptake of seasonal forecasts by industry and hence expansion of the climate services market.

Field of science

  • /social sciences/economics and business/business and management/commerce
  • /social sciences/sociology/governance/crisis management
  • /engineering and technology/environmental engineering/energy and fuels/renewable energy
  • /social sciences/sociology/governance/public services

Call for proposal

H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB
See other projects for this call

Funding Scheme

RIA - Research and Innovation action

Coordinator

UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA
Address
Earlham Road
NR4 7TJ Norwich
United Kingdom
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
EU contribution
€ 951 004,11

Participants (9)

ENEL GLOBAL TRADING SPA
Italy
EU contribution
€ 926 215
Address
Viale Regina Margherita 125
00198 Roma
Activity type
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
AGENZIA NAZIONALE PER LE NUOVE TECNOLOGIE, L'ENERGIA E LO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO SOSTENIBILE
Italy
EU contribution
€ 238 325
Address
Lungotevere Grande Ammiraglio Thaon Di Revel 76
000196 Roma
Activity type
Research Organisations
MET OFFICE
United Kingdom
EU contribution
€ 688 423,75
Address
Fitzroy Road
EX1 3PB Exeter
Activity type
Public bodies (excluding Research Organisations and Secondary or Higher Education Establishments)
AWS TRUEPOWER SL
Spain
EU contribution
€ 385 748,05
Address
Calle Baldiri Reixac 10-12
08028 Barcelona
Activity type
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT-KNMI
Netherlands
EU contribution
€ 612 546,25
Address
Utrechtseweg 297
3731 GA De Bilt
Activity type
Research Organisations
WORLD ENERGY & METEOROLOGY COUNCIL
United Kingdom
EU contribution
€ 399 116,40
Address
School Of Environmental Sciences, University Of East Anglia
NR4 7TJ Norwich
Activity type
Other
ACCADEMIA EUROPEA DI BOLZANO
Italy
EU contribution
€ 265 491,25
Address
Viale Druso 1
39100 Bolzano
Activity type
Research Organisations
ALPERIA SpA
Italy
EU contribution
€ 76 560
Address
Via Dodiciville 8
39100 Bolzano
Activity type
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
METEO-FRANCE
France
EU contribution
€ 95 070,19
Address
Avenue De Paris 73
94165 Saint Mande Cedex
Activity type
Research Organisations