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The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Integrated Risk Management Decisions

Project information

Grant agreement ID: 776868

Status

Ongoing project

  • Start date

    1 February 2018

  • End date

    31 July 2021

Funded under:

H2020-EU.3.5.1.

  • Overall budget:

    € 4 638 500

  • EU contribution

    € 4 638 500

Coordinated by:

UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA

United Kingdom

Objective

The central objective of SECLI-FIRM is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes, primarily in the energy sector, but also in the water sector. Specifically for the energy sector, SECLI-CLIM will assess the impact on operational planning and portfolio management, such as hedging and asset optimization, thus enabling quantification of the value-add provided by seasonal forecasts which have been calibrated, evaluated and tailored for each specific application. Improvements in management decisions will ultimately lead to an improved supply-demand balance and therefore to a more efficient energy system, particularly with respect to renewable energy, with corresponding benefits for climate change mitigation.

A simple, but effective, methodology will be used to assess value added. A control case will only utilise climatological conditions based on historical averaged values – currently the most common approach – while a test case will also consider individually optimised and tailored state-of-the-art probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This will be done for nine case studies for Europe and South America: recent seasons with anomalous/extreme climate conditions leading to problematic and quantifiable impacts for the energy and/or water industry. Crucially for success, the case studies will be co-designed by industrial and research partners.

These case studies will provide the basis for developing pilot climate services for a number of specific applications, allowing evaluation of the added value of near real-time information for decision making. Thus SECLI-FIRM will promote research advances in the optimization of seasonal forecasts for specific applications (e.g. by evaluating both local processes and large-scale teleconnections), as well as promoting the uptake of seasonal forecasts by industry and hence expansion of the climate services market.
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Coordinator

UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA

Address

Earlham Road
Nr4 7tj Norwich

United Kingdom

Activity type

Higher or Secondary Education Establishments

EU Contribution

€ 951 004,11

Participants (9)

ENEL GLOBAL TRADING SPA

Italy

EU Contribution

€ 926 215

AGENZIA NAZIONALE PER LE NUOVE TECNOLOGIE, L'ENERGIA E LO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO SOSTENIBILE

Italy

EU Contribution

€ 238 325

MET OFFICE

United Kingdom

EU Contribution

€ 688 423,75

AWS TRUEPOWER SL

Spain

EU Contribution

€ 385 748,05

KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT-KNMI

Netherlands

EU Contribution

€ 612 546,25

WORLD ENERGY & METEOROLOGY COUNCIL

United Kingdom

EU Contribution

€ 399 116,40

ACCADEMIA EUROPEA DI BOLZANO

Italy

EU Contribution

€ 265 491,25

ALPERIA SpA

Italy

EU Contribution

€ 76 560

METEO-FRANCE

France

EU Contribution

€ 95 070,19

Project information

Grant agreement ID: 776868

Status

Ongoing project

  • Start date

    1 February 2018

  • End date

    31 July 2021

Funded under:

H2020-EU.3.5.1.

  • Overall budget:

    € 4 638 500

  • EU contribution

    € 4 638 500

Coordinated by:

UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA

United Kingdom