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The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Integrated Risk Management Decisions

Objective

The central objective of SECLI-FIRM is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes, primarily in the energy sector, but also in the water sector. Specifically for the energy sector, SECLI-CLIM will assess the impact on operational planning and portfolio management, such as hedging and asset optimization, thus enabling quantification of the value-add provided by seasonal forecasts which have been calibrated, evaluated and tailored for each specific application. Improvements in management decisions will ultimately lead to an improved supply-demand balance and therefore to a more efficient energy system, particularly with respect to renewable energy, with corresponding benefits for climate change mitigation.

A simple, but effective, methodology will be used to assess value added. A control case will only utilise climatological conditions based on historical averaged values – currently the most common approach – while a test case will also consider individually optimised and tailored state-of-the-art probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This will be done for nine case studies for Europe and South America: recent seasons with anomalous/extreme climate conditions leading to problematic and quantifiable impacts for the energy and/or water industry. Crucially for success, the case studies will be co-designed by industrial and research partners.

These case studies will provide the basis for developing pilot climate services for a number of specific applications, allowing evaluation of the added value of near real-time information for decision making. Thus SECLI-FIRM will promote research advances in the optimization of seasonal forecasts for specific applications (e.g. by evaluating both local processes and large-scale teleconnections), as well as promoting the uptake of seasonal forecasts by industry and hence expansion of the climate services market.

Call for proposal

H2020-SC5-2016-2017

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Sub call

H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB

Coordinator

UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA
Net EU contribution
€ 1 036 273,29
Address
Earlham Road
NR4 7TJ Norwich
United Kingdom

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Region
East of England East Anglia Norwich and East Norfolk
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Non-EU contribution
€ 0,00

Participants (9)

ENEL GLOBAL TRADING SPA
Italy
Net EU contribution
€ 913 215,00
Address
Viale Regina Margherita 125
00198 Roma

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Region
Centro (IT) Lazio Roma
Activity type
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
Non-EU contribution
€ 0,00
AGENZIA NAZIONALE PER LE NUOVE TECNOLOGIE, L'ENERGIA E LO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO SOSTENIBILE
Italy
Net EU contribution
€ 238 325,00
Address
Lungotevere Grande Ammiraglio Thaon Di Revel 76
00196 Roma

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Region
Centro (IT) Lazio Roma
Activity type
Research Organisations
Non-EU contribution
€ 0,00
MET OFFICE
United Kingdom
Net EU contribution
€ 688 423,75
Address
Fitzroy Road
EX1 3PB Exeter

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Region
South West (England) Devon Devon CC
Activity type
Public bodies (excluding Research Organisations and Secondary or Higher Education Establishments)
Non-EU contribution
€ 0,00
UL SERVICES SPAIN SL
Spain
Net EU contribution
€ 385 748,05
Address
Caravel La La Nina 12 Planta 3
08017 Barcelona

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SME

The organization defined itself as SME (small and medium-sized enterprise) at the time the Grant Agreement was signed.

Yes
Region
Este Cataluña Barcelona
Activity type
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
Non-EU contribution
€ 0,00
KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT-KNMI
Netherlands
Net EU contribution
€ 522 546,25
Address
Utrechtseweg 297
3731 GA De Bilt

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Region
West-Nederland Utrecht Utrecht
Activity type
Research Organisations
Non-EU contribution
€ 0,00
WORLD ENERGY & METEOROLOGY COUNCIL
United Kingdom
Net EU contribution
€ 399 116,40
Address
C/o Argents Chartered Accountants 15 Palace Street
NR3 1RT Norwich

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SME

The organization defined itself as SME (small and medium-sized enterprise) at the time the Grant Agreement was signed.

Yes
Region
East of England East Anglia Norwich and East Norfolk
Activity type
Other
Non-EU contribution
€ 0,00
ACCADEMIA EUROPEA DI BOLZANO
Italy
Net EU contribution
€ 265 491,25
Address
Viale Druso 1
39100 Bolzano

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Region
Nord-Est Provincia Autonoma di Bolzano/Bozen Bolzano-Bozen
Activity type
Research Organisations
Non-EU contribution
€ 0,00
ALPERIA SpA
Italy
Net EU contribution
€ 76 560,00
Address
Via Dodiciville 8
39100 Bolzano

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Region
Nord-Est Provincia Autonoma di Bolzano/Bozen Bolzano-Bozen
Activity type
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
Non-EU contribution
€ 0,00
METEO-FRANCE
France
Net EU contribution
€ 112 801,01
Address
Avenue De Paris 73
94165 Saint Mande Cedex

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Region
Ile-de-France Ile-de-France Val-de-Marne
Activity type
Research Organisations
Non-EU contribution
€ 0,00