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Quantitative Financial Risk Network Analysis with Sentiment and Herd Behaviour Measures

Project description

Investor behaviour on the stock market

In recent years, we have observed many examples of how changes in the stock market can impact on the economy. We have also seen the negative effects of over-optimistic or pessimistic behaviours on both the stock market and the economy, on both a global and a regional scale. As such, there has been an increase in research on the effects of investor sentiment on the market. Unfortunately, despite this increase, there hasn’t been enough research on measures that can be taken for the stability of the market as of yet. The EU-funded QFRNA_SH project will conduct research on the effect of investor sentiment. The findings will increase our knowledge of its effect on the stock market.

Objective

Sentiment drives the stock market (Shiller, 2000). Over-optimistic and over-pessimistic emotions can lead to great mispricing and excess volatility. The question is no longer whether investor sentiment affects stock prices, but rather how to measure investor sentiment and quantify its effects (Baker and Wurgler, 2007). (1) The proposal firstly plans to improve upon existing measures of investor sentiment by combining financial proxies and textual variables. Then it tries to calibrate the option-pricing model with the investor sentiment measure incorporated to achieve precise pricing. (2) While there has been much work on investor sentiment, there is a lacuna in research that explores sentiment network, in particular the interdependencies of the sentiment indices and their relationship with equity returns. The researcher aims to explore the interconnectedness of sentiment measures among different stocks and identifies which stock plays a crucial role by proposing an innovative semiparametric tail event driven network. (3) The interdependencies and co-movements of investor emotions may lead to herd behaviour in the financial market. One of the difficulties lies in differentiating between a rational reaction to changes in fundamental values and irrational herd behaviour. The proposal aims to detect and interpret the phenomenon considering macroeconomic signals, buy or sell transaction behaviour and investor sentiment. The overall proposal is, therefore, original not just because of employing new investor sentiment measures but for the development of new econometric methods in the first place. Moreover, it potentially contributes to inclusive, innovative and reflective societies in Europe by supporting financial decision-making processes and managing risks for investors and institutions.

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Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Funding Scheme

MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)

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Call for proposal

(opens in new window) H2020-MSCA-IF-2019

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Coordinator

HUMBOLDT-UNIVERSITAET ZU BERLIN
Net EU contribution
€ 174 806,40
Address
UNTER DEN LINDEN 6
10117 Berlin
Germany
Region
Berlin Berlin Berlin
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost
€ 174 806,40