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Accident Prevention and Management, 1992-1994

Ziel

Performance and coordination of research activities in areas concerning occupational and organisational aspects of the work environment as well as prevention and management of accidents in complex plants.
A number of studies have been initiated in the management of accidents by theoretical developments as well as field experiments. The objectives of these activities are the analyses of accident dynamics for modelling operators behaviour during accident management; developing statistical tools for accident diagnostics and management; and generating new methodological approaches for safety and reliability studies, involving human errors. The cognitive model under development is named COSIMO (COgnitive SImulation MOdel). It runs on UNIX and LISP environments using a Blackboard architecture and it is based on a number of well structured theories of cognition. COSIMO has reached a first stage of development and it has already been applied in 2 field studies, namely: the operation of a real nuclear power plant during the training at the control room replica simulator; and the operation of a blast furnace during the operational transients of plant shut-down and start-up.

The second activity concerns the use of (Autoregressive moving average) ARMA techniques as automatic diagnosticians to monitor systems with linear dynamics, such as plant processes in a wide range of conditions. ARMA simulation packages, containing a number of highly efficient statistical tests, have been prepared as software tools which are able to identify the model rupture and thus the likelihood of a plant fault or malfunction. In particular a handbook of process diagnostics has been developed, which describes all the statistical tools necessary for the identification of small anomalies in plant behaviour representing early measures of major faults.
Progress to end 1991

The research in "Accident Prevention and Management" will start with the 92-94 pluri-annual programme as a new activity in the area enabling technologies - working environment. However, the proposed future research bears profound links with the activity of the previous programme in Human Factors in Industrial Hazards. The progresses of the latter research to end of 1991 to be carried over in the next Framework Programme are hereafter reported.
A number of studies have been initiated since many years in the area of operators behaviour in complex processes and, more recently, in the management of accidents by theoretical developments as well as field experiments. The objective of these activities are the analyses of accidentdynamics for
1. modelling operators behaviour during accident management;
2. developing statistical tools for accident management;
3. generating new methodological approaches for safety and reliability studies, involving human errors.
The first activity has been carried out within the Esprit project MOHAWC (modelling of Human Actions in Work Environment, Esprit basic Research No 305), and within the CNR-financed Project FATMA (prevenzione e controllo dei fattori di Malattia - Linea di ricerca stress e Lavoro). These research activities are already well advanced and recognised within the scientific community. The cognitive model under development is named COSIMO (COgnitive SImulation MOdel). It runs on unix and Lisp environments using a Blackboard architecture and it is based on a number of well structured theories of cognition. COSIMO has reached a first stage of development and it has already been applied in two field studies, namely: a) the operators of a real nuclear power plant during the training at the control room replica simulator; and b) the operators of a blast furnace during the operational transients of plant shut-down and start-up.
The second activity concerns the use of ARMA (autoregressive Moving Average) techniques as automatic diagnosticians to monitor sytems with linear dynamics, such as plant processes in a wide range of conditions. ARMA simulation packages, containing a number of highly efficient statistical tests, have been prepared as software tools wich are able to identify the "model rupture" and thus the likelihood of a plant fault or malfunction. In particular, it has been developed a Handbook of Process Diagnostics, which describes all the statistical tools necessary for the identification of small anomalies in plant behaviour representing early measures of major faults.
The third activity has been performed within two STEP (science and technology for Environmental Protection) Projects, namely SRG (system Response generator) and HEAT (Human Error Analytical Taxonomy), which aim at the development of a tool able to analyse pilots decision making during incidental transients in the civil aviation area and at the formulation of a framework for classifying human errors, in consideration for cognitive and organisational ergonomics principles. In both projects a strong contribution of European industrial partners is present. These two projects have started in 91 and only the identification of the most appropriate tools to use has been performed. In particular the contribution of JRC concerns the application of dynamic tools for man-machine interaction analysis and the use of cognitive modelling environment to the case studies defined within the projects.

Detailed description of work foreseen in 1992

The research in Occupational Accident Prevention and Management will be carried out in a Laboratory of Man-Machine Systems and will be based on :

1. The modelling and simulation development related to:a) studies of man-machine interaction in accident management; b) evaluation of the impact of new technologies on safety at work; and c) research on cognitive and organisational factors affecting safety.
2. The organisation of an information and Documentation Service, containing a data bank of norms and regulations as well as occupational accidents and results of R&D. A variety of analyses concerning occupational accidents, performed by statistical methods and oriented to prevention measures, will be performed on the data of the bank.
The modelling and simulation development will concentrate on the further development of the three activities discussed above, with the following aims:
a. The cognitive model will be further developed at theoretic level by the inclusion of a model of "stress" and a model of "temporal reasoning" affecting decision making. Experimental tests will be set up in real domains and in the laboratory.
b. The development of a decision support tool for early fault detection will be initiated, based on techniques for automatic diagnosis by ARMA models coupled with cognitive simulation for improving man-machine interaction. The application to a real process plant will be immediately linked to the theoretical development.
c. The development of a first prototype of a System Response Generator (SRG) is planned, containing the whole structure of the final tool, but using very simple models for the airplane, the pilot and the sequences generation "engine", and a primitive computerised architecture.
A taxonomy framework will also be developed to a prototype level and could be already useful for the further development of accidents bank as well as of the System Response Generator.
the organisation of the Information and Documentation Service will be initiated by defining the characteristics of the bank, such as software architecture, portability etc., and by using the available information contained in some already existing accident banks in EC member countries.

The performance of pilot statistical tests will represent a prototype methodological approach to be further formalised on the complete bank.

Short description of evolution of work in 1993
the accident bank will be formalised in a portable computer architecture containing also built-in methods for statistical tests and data analysis. Modelling of cognitive processes will tackle the problem of reasoning and dynamic planning. The system Response Generator will be finalised as a tool for risk and reliability analysis including human modelling and a complete taxonomy for human error consideration. A prototype decision support system for early fault diagnosis will be developed.

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Koordinator

Joint Research Centre (JRC)
EU-Beitrag
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Adresse

21020 Ispra
Italien

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