Fostering the positive linkages between trade and sustainable development

Risultati finali

D1.4. Network analysis of global agri-food trade flows

D1.4. will build on previous research by applying the network analysis approach to selected key value chains important from the development perspective, using the inter-country input- output (ICIO) table. The network analysis applied to trade in value added will help to describe the structure of agri-food GVCs and understand how different kinds of shocks can affect the resilience of agriculture and food systems and the needs in terms of policy action. The network analysis will inform on the different architecture of the various agri-food supply chains in terms of centrality, concentration, length and distance from final demand and distribution of value.

D1.2. Identification of most important indicators

The aim of D12 is to identify a system of relevant indicators of the linkages between SDGs and trade and summarise this in a database through a systematic review including scientific and nonscientific literature This exercise will help understand how the linkages identified in Task 11 can be measured consistently Criteria for indicator selection include policy relevance clear directionality clarity comparability across countries and over time accessibility An iterative process is planned here starting from a large set of data and indicators and ending up in a core set of relevant components of sustainability A crosstable between indicators and SDGs will clearly show the nature of the relationship The result of this process will inform WP3 on the relations between trade and sustainability and on which indicators are suitable to measure quantitatively this relationship

D3.2. Report on the modelling of social and distributional impact of trade and sustainability policies

Trade and sustainability policies have a large impact on agricultural households, in particular on those that are involved in the most affected food value chains. This task will investigate which SD indicators are most affected by the social and distributional impacts of trade and sustainability policies. In doing this TRADE4SD will investigate which social groups are targeted by these policies and developments in world trade. The model will be applied to Ghana breaking-down impacts with regard to social groups, analysing the resilience of different households to changes in trade and related sustainability policies i.e. the vulnerability of different households to food security and nutrition. FAO’s nutritional and undernourishment model components will contribute to this work by the provision of specific indicators. The information acquired by accomplishing D3.2. helps in building policy scenarios which highlight more and more specifically the possible benefits and risks (primarily in terms of SDGs indicators) of developments in world trade and trade and sustainability policies.

D3.3. Report on modelling the environmental impact of trade and sustainability policies

The objective of D2.3. is to assess the impact of international agricultural trade on achievement of climate goals, in line with SDGs (mainly Goal 13). GTAP_CGE-Box will be employed to evaluate the impact of specific trade agreements, energy and climate policies on CO2 and non-CO2 emissions (i.e. N2O, CH4) and water pollution. The ways to mitigate GHG emissions through international trade globally and methods to avoid relocation of pollution sources due to trade shifts are to be estimated and analysed.Hence, the G-RDEM module of CGE-Box will be used in particular since it draws on a set of projections for the so-called SSPs (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This task will establish the role of agri-food trade in achieving SDGs taking into account especially two things. First, monitoring the displacement effect - as Europe strives to achieve goals of the European Green Deal, through e.g. Paris Agreement, which is crucial to ensure avoiding the GHG leakage to other countries, e.g. Ghana, Vietnam. Second, taking into account future scenarios of global development based on SSPs. The task will provide arguments for new/better policies for trade taking into account environmental measures as tools of climate change mitigation and reduction of pollution (e.g. water).

D2.2. 3 short reports on case studies (Vietnam, Ghana, Tunisia) and 1 synthesis report on How the SDGs are currently included in preferential agreements and how are sustainability provision working

The first activity in D2.2. is to provide an overview of the way in which SDGs are typically treated in EU agreements, and to discuss this in the context of multilateral trade rules and agreements, notably the WTO. This task will undertake a qualitative survey of how non-product related agricultural issues are addressed in EU FTAs. As opposed to analysis of SPS chapters, this element would focus on relevant commitments in EU Trade and Sustainable Development (environment and labour) chapters: dedicated articles on forestry and fisheries, cooperation on relevant MEAs and other forms of regional cooperation. Case studies will be carried out in three countries (Ghana, Vietnam and Tunisia) on the extent to which the provisions described above were utilised, which provisions appeared to be more useful or productive, and what kinds of outcomes were evident.

D2.1. Report on the quantitative assessment of FTAs contribution to SDGs

The aim of D2.1. is to assess empirically the extent to which the EU’ FTAs have impacted on selected SDGs, in particular with regard to agriculture, building upon existing work as Horizon 2020 RESPECT. The underlying methodology will be, first, to econometrically estimate the relationship between the “SDG-content” of FTAs and the realization of the selected SDGs, and second, the relationship between SDGs and trade (i.e. how trade impacts on SDGs). It will apply state of the art gravity model and explore the possibility of alternative techniques based on propensity score matching and a control function approach in order to identify the causal link between FTAs, trade and the realization of SDGs. Detailed information on the measures included in respective FTAs will be obtained by the recently compiled World Bank database Deep Trade Agreements.

D1.1. Review of direct and indirect linkages

By conducting a scoping exercise the aim of D11 is to identify the linkages between SDGs and trade This task will conduct a review of academic and nonacademic literature on the topic followed by stakeholder consultation in order to acquire their extensive knowledge on the linkages between SD and trade in practice The exercise will help also in understanding how some linkages might differ by region or commodity depending on political economic social and environmental contexts The participation of multiple actors including political legal economic and social stakeholders can aid to the validation of the linkages The outcome of this process will contribute to the second objective of WP1 identify direct and indirect linkages between trade and SDGs

D1.5. Taxonomy of GVCs

The aim of D1.5. is to define a taxonomy of global agri-food value chains according to various indicators. Our analysis will inform on how the structure of GVCs is influenced both by the characteristics of the products and by trade policy.

D4.1. Policy brief: How to make the best use of model results in trade policy: Insights from stakeholders' views

D4.1 will start with a review of studies reporting experiences with engagement of stakeholders in scenario design for formal modelling and lessons learnt. The core of the work on this task will involve an integrative workshop stakeholder process and an intensive cooperation with WP3 starting from scenario development to recommendations for implementation of modelling results. Stakeholders’ involvement will focus in particular on the development of scenarios to assess the effect of agri-food trade on socio-economic SDGs, including poverty, income inequality, employment, and on scenarios to decrease market distortions in developing countries. Specific attention will be paid to ensure that the scenarios are transparent about the assumptions and existing uncertainties. The main methodological approach will be a Delphi exercise whose results will be fed into a joint workshop between modellers from WP3 and key stakeholders in WP4.

D3.1. Report on linking SDG indicators with models in the TRADE4SD toolbox

D31 will provide an overview on how different SDG indicators will be covered in the quantitative modelbased analysis in WP3 The models to be applied in this WP cover trade policy instruments in full details ie specific and advalorem tariffs but also tariff rate quota TRQ with differentiated rates of tariffs within and outside the quantities of TRQs Under TRADE4SD however the standard analysis of trade policies should be more broader covering also policy instruments targeted towards SDGs Task 31 will provide an overview of current modelling of SDGs related policy instruments and indicators to measure the success or degree of progress to reach different SDGsTherefore this scoping exercise will also a identify the link between quantifiable SDGindicators and policy instruments covered in the existing models b identify the need for further model development and improvement to enable existing models for a detailed and combined analysis of trade and sustainability impact of new policy options like the Green Deal or the Farm to ForkStrategies and c enhance a modelbased assessment of resilience ie to provide a better understanding of medium to longterm consequences of agriculture in a post COVID19 world

D3.4. Report on impact of trade policies on agri-food value chains

D3.4 will cover a detailed analysis of the impact of trade and sustainability policies along the agri-food value chains in exporting (‘farm to port’) and in importing countries (‘port to table’). The work will be supported by a detailed analysis of the impact of TRQ on international trade (Task 2.2 in WP2) together with the applied partial equilibrium models AGMEMOD with a focus on agri-food chains in European countries and the COSIMO model applied for agri-food markets in countries like Ghana, Vietnam and Thailand. In synergy with Task 3.2, the impact on different social groups will be estimated. AGLINK - COSIMO simulations for policies seeking to promote healthy dietary choices and fight obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases will be implemented and extended to developing countries. Results will impact on domestic policies design to improve the nutritional status of the population maximizing the positive net effects of trade on nutritional outcomes. Similarly, policies that aim to encourage consumers to adopt more sustainable/lower emissions diets will be simulated.

D1.3. Visual dashboard

In D13 a userfriendly dashboard will be elaborated visualising the direct and indirect linkages between sustainable development and agrifood trade This exercise will help informing the stakeholders and the general public on how exactly trade and sustainable development are related through indicators and what happens to an SDG if an identified trade component is changed to a certain extent This dashboard will be continuously enriched with the results of modelling WP3 and case studies WP4 This task highly contributes to the civil society dialogue

Risultati finali

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