Quantitative research
Our research using statistical models suggests that anti-migrant attitudes, which were clearly on the rise across Europe after the ‘refugee crisis’ in 2015/16, were back to pre-crisis averages by 2018: We have found no evidence for a long-term decline in support for migrants and positive attitudes toward migration. Statistical analyses also found no clear correlation between the number of immigrants received by a country or its economic difficulties on the one hand, and anti-migrant sentiment on the other. This is good news from a European perspective, given that our regression analyses on the basis of the European Social Survey (2002-2018) have found a strong correlation between pro-migration and pro-European attitudes.
However, survey analyses were able to establish clear differences between member states which allow us to distinguish three country profiles. In Hungary and the Czech Republic, over 70% of citizens hold negative views on migration, in Central European countries like Austria and Slovenia or in Baltic countries (Estonia, Lithuania) we found a slightly more welcoming atmosphere (ca. 50% of the population is selective or welcoming). Western European and Scandinavian countries are most positive about migration (a very stable minority of 40% is unequivocally positive about migration).
Our media research helps us discuss more specific issues, too. The content people consume through media holds significant importance. Moreover, a comparative analysis of Twitter accounts by political parties in four European member states (Austria, Germany, Hungary, and Italy) confirms that the debate between the political left and the political right increasingly centers on the pros and cons of immigration. What is more, a recent social network analysis of the migration-related German-speaking Twittersphere revealed, among other things, that the anti-migration cluster tends to have a denser structure than the other user networks, and that – somewhat worryingly – only in the far-right user cluster, significant transnational cooperation can be observed (otherwise, the communication structure appears to align with national bounderies, i.e. Germany, Switzerland, and Austria).
Narrative theory and analysis
Whereas quantitative media analysis uses large data-sets giving access to major trends in attitudes toward migration, narrative analysis provides a more nuanced picture of media ecologies and narrative ecologies, or narrative dynamics. Our case studies of migration discourses in Austria, Germany, Hungary, and Italy complement the quantitative analyses, zooming in on specific aspects like the development of Germany’s ‘welcome culture’ as a counter-narrative to anti-refugee movements since 2015/16, the discursive shift from narratives of crisis to a narrative of solidarity in the Austrian public, or the ongoing process of interfering with independent and critical journalism through the government strategy of “rebalancing” the media in Hungary. This analysis also involved regular comparisons with the profoundly different framing of migration in the EU in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. We introduce new concepts such as centrifugal and centripetal narrative dynamics, crisis narration, and the notion of migration as a multiscalar phenomenon that ranges from migrants’ personal experience to the global factors (such as poverty and climate change) shaping migration on a planetary scale. The example of the treatment of migration in Italian media shows that media narratives are often unable to bring together those scales, privileging the scale of regional or national debates at the expense of migrants’ experience or global phenomena.
Even well-meaning actors like journalists or NGOs working with refugees and migrants across Europe tend to resort to “vicarious storytelling”, i.e. the practice of speaking on behalf of others. Undocumented migrants, in particular, are silenced and rely on others to speak out for them. Vicarious storytelling, in the form of anonymous pseudo-testimonies intended to create empathy, is also commonly used for fundraising. While such practices can’t be avoided completely, the OPPORTUNITIES project raises awareness for the fact that a new narrative on migration requires a fair dialogue which involves migrants, citizens, and stakeholders on an equal footing.
