Periodic Reporting for period 2 - CLUES-DECEB (Cultural Loss Under Emulated Shocks – Demographic Environmental Climatic Empirical Bottlenecks)
Berichtszeitraum: 2024-09-01 bis 2025-08-31
CLUES-DECEB (Cultural Loss Under Emulated Shocks – Demographic, Environmental, Climatic, Empirical Bottlenecks) addresses the lack of systematic research on cultural loss, the mechanisms that drive it, and how it can be measured under conditions of stress and disruption. This issue is increasingly important in a world where societies face more frequent and intense disasters, pandemics, migrations, and environmental changes, all of which can interrupt the transmission of knowledge and skills.
The project aimed to identify the key factors and tipping points that lead to cultural loss. To achieve this, it developed and analysed a core computer model, called EMBERS, simulating the basic mechanisms through which cultural practices disappear, using empirical case studies where populations experienced environmental or social shocks. The main modelling results showed that irregular use of a practice and the decay of collective memory are the primary drivers of cultural loss, while population size plays a smaller role than previously assumed.
The project concludes that cultural loss is best understood as a dynamic process driven by disruptions in practice and memory, rather than primarily by demographic decline. It also shows that identifying tipping points requires combining modelling with empirical and interdisciplinary approaches. These results establish a new research agenda on cultural loss and provide conceptual and methodological tools for future studies. The findings are being disseminated through publications, outreach, and follow-up research to support strategies that strengthen cultural resilience.
The project aimed to identify the key factors and tipping points that lead to cultural loss. To achieve this, it developed and analysed a core computer model, called EMBERS, simulating the basic mechanisms through which cultural practices disappear, using empirical case studies where populations experienced environmental or social shocks. The main modelling results showed that irregular use of a practice and the decay of collective memory are the primary drivers of cultural loss, while population size plays a smaller role than previously assumed.
The project concludes that cultural loss is best understood as a dynamic process driven by disruptions in practice and memory, rather than primarily by demographic decline. It also shows that identifying tipping points requires combining modelling with empirical and interdisciplinary approaches. These results establish a new research agenda on cultural loss and provide conceptual and methodological tools for future studies. The findings are being disseminated through publications, outreach, and follow-up research to support strategies that strengthen cultural resilience.
The main work carried out during the project was the development of an empirically grounded modelling framework for cultural loss, implemented in the model EMBERS. This model captures, in a simple and generalisable way, the loss of complex cultural practices under conditions of disruption. It was initially motivated by the case of fire use among Neanderthals, where archaeological evidence suggests that campfire use disappeared at some sites during cold climatic periods. However, the model is designed to be broadly applicable and can also describe the loss of contemporary skills, crafts, and technologies observed in different societies when practices become rare, isolated, or maintained by only a few specialists.
The model represents the mechanisms of cultural loss using four empirically motivated parameters: the mean frequency of use of a practice and its variability, the rate of group memory or skill decay, and the number of skilled practitioners. It follows a “use it or lose it” framework, in which irregular or disrupted practice increases the probability of long-term loss. The main results show that variability in use and memory decay are the primary drivers of cultural loss, while population size plays a comparatively minor role. These findings challenge dominant theories that emphasise demography as the main factor shaping cultural complexity.
In addition to the core modelling work, the project developed conceptual and interdisciplinary frameworks linking cultural loss to sustainability and resilience research. This included analysing how the loss of specific practices can produce cascading effects across eco-cultural systems, particularly under environmental shocks. The project also advanced the concept of “cultural keystone practices” as a way to identify and measure culturally important activities that support social and ecological well-being.
The project produced the core EMBERS modelling publication and several additional manuscripts under preparation, including modelling extensions, interdisciplinary syntheses, and conceptual frameworks. The EMBERS paper generated interest from the press and science communication outlets, contributing to the visibility of the project and stimulating public discussion on the topic of cultural loss.
Results were disseminated through participation in six international conferences, with presentations at three of them, as well as seminars at host institutions and an invited colloquium. A workshop involving twelve researchers from different disciplines was also organised to explore modelling approaches to shocks and cultural adaptation. The EU funding was acknowledged in all dissemination and communication activities.
Further exploitation and dissemination activities include public-facing outputs, a general-audience article currently under revision, educational videos explaining the project’s results, and a draft Wikipedia entry on cultural loss.
The model represents the mechanisms of cultural loss using four empirically motivated parameters: the mean frequency of use of a practice and its variability, the rate of group memory or skill decay, and the number of skilled practitioners. It follows a “use it or lose it” framework, in which irregular or disrupted practice increases the probability of long-term loss. The main results show that variability in use and memory decay are the primary drivers of cultural loss, while population size plays a comparatively minor role. These findings challenge dominant theories that emphasise demography as the main factor shaping cultural complexity.
In addition to the core modelling work, the project developed conceptual and interdisciplinary frameworks linking cultural loss to sustainability and resilience research. This included analysing how the loss of specific practices can produce cascading effects across eco-cultural systems, particularly under environmental shocks. The project also advanced the concept of “cultural keystone practices” as a way to identify and measure culturally important activities that support social and ecological well-being.
The project produced the core EMBERS modelling publication and several additional manuscripts under preparation, including modelling extensions, interdisciplinary syntheses, and conceptual frameworks. The EMBERS paper generated interest from the press and science communication outlets, contributing to the visibility of the project and stimulating public discussion on the topic of cultural loss.
Results were disseminated through participation in six international conferences, with presentations at three of them, as well as seminars at host institutions and an invited colloquium. A workshop involving twelve researchers from different disciplines was also organised to explore modelling approaches to shocks and cultural adaptation. The EU funding was acknowledged in all dissemination and communication activities.
Further exploitation and dissemination activities include public-facing outputs, a general-audience article currently under revision, educational videos explaining the project’s results, and a draft Wikipedia entry on cultural loss.
Under CLUES, the project successfully modelled the basic mechanisms that drive cultural loss using empirically motivated parameters that can, in principle, be measured across archaeological and contemporary contexts. This modelling approach represents a clear step beyond the state of the art. Existing models of cultural evolution rarely address memory decay explicitly, and almost none distinguish between different decay rates while assessing the relative importance of multiple parameters. The project’s results show that demographic size is the least influential factor in explaining the retention or loss of practices, a finding that contrasts with dominant narratives in the literature. Instead, variability in use emerged as the primary driver of cultural loss, with effects substantially stronger than those associated with the number of skilled practitioners. The modelling also highlighted the importance of distinguishing between cultural loss and the decay of individual skills or memories, showing that procedural skills are particularly vulnerable and therefore more likely to disappear.
Building on these results, the project established a framework for analysing the scale of variability in practice as a key mechanism underlying the effects of shocks. By measuring the tolerance of different practices to interruptions in use, it becomes possible to identify tipping points at which short-term disruptions may lead to long-term cultural loss. This approach provides a foundation for future empirical work and modelling, with the potential to inform strategies aimed at protecting vulnerable practices and strengthening cultural resilience.
In parallel, the project consolidated and expanded the concept of “cultural keystone practices”, which had previously received little systematic attention. This concept focuses on identifying culturally significant practices that play a central role in social and ecological well-being. The project developed a standardised definition and initiated work on measurement protocols inspired by conservation frameworks such as the IUCN Red List. In the long term, this approach could support practical tools for identifying and safeguarding culturally important practices, with potential applications in heritage preservation, sustainability planning, and community-based conservation.
Finally, the project established a conceptual link between cultural loss and sustainability, an area that remains fragmented across disciplines and largely absent from policy discussions. By identifying the dispersed nature of research on cultural loss and proposing shared terminology and methodological approaches, the project lays the groundwork for more integrated research and policy strategies. These results have potential socio-economic and societal impacts, particularly in areas related to disaster preparedness, cultural heritage protection, and sustainable community development.
Building on these results, the project established a framework for analysing the scale of variability in practice as a key mechanism underlying the effects of shocks. By measuring the tolerance of different practices to interruptions in use, it becomes possible to identify tipping points at which short-term disruptions may lead to long-term cultural loss. This approach provides a foundation for future empirical work and modelling, with the potential to inform strategies aimed at protecting vulnerable practices and strengthening cultural resilience.
In parallel, the project consolidated and expanded the concept of “cultural keystone practices”, which had previously received little systematic attention. This concept focuses on identifying culturally significant practices that play a central role in social and ecological well-being. The project developed a standardised definition and initiated work on measurement protocols inspired by conservation frameworks such as the IUCN Red List. In the long term, this approach could support practical tools for identifying and safeguarding culturally important practices, with potential applications in heritage preservation, sustainability planning, and community-based conservation.
Finally, the project established a conceptual link between cultural loss and sustainability, an area that remains fragmented across disciplines and largely absent from policy discussions. By identifying the dispersed nature of research on cultural loss and proposing shared terminology and methodological approaches, the project lays the groundwork for more integrated research and policy strategies. These results have potential socio-economic and societal impacts, particularly in areas related to disaster preparedness, cultural heritage protection, and sustainable community development.