CORDIS - EU research results

Bayesian inference and model selection for stochastic epidemics

Project description

Novel epidemiology statistics: lessons from COVID-19

The SARS-Cov-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of prompt identification of virus outbreaks and optimal control strategies. The EU-funded BERNADETTE project is working on novel statistical methodology for the modelling of infectious diseases like COVID-19. This work is expected to help scientists understand various disease aspects and quantify the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Moreover, it will address the socio-economic impact of different response strategies for human epidemics and support decision-making. The implementation of this model will improve public health policies and preparedness planning in Europe and the rest of the world.


The ultimate goal of this Fellowship, titled “Bayesian infEReNce And moDel sElecTion for sTochastic Epidemics” (BERNADETTE), is to train a talented researcher through a research project focused on the development of novel statistical methodology for the modeling of infectious diseases like COVID-19. The success of the interdisciplinary project will lead to a number of multidisciplinary innovations in epidemiology, Public Health policy and statistics, which will contribute to the timely identification of optimal disease control strategies. The Fellow – Dr. Lampros Bouranis – will be trained in the fields of statistics and epidemiology, receiving access to a unique training experience at the host – Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB) – and co-hosts. The BERNADETTE outputs will be relevant to healthcare and the EU Epidemic intelligence, by: i) offering novel statistical methodology for the analysis of COVID-19 outbreak data and the description of a number of aspects of the underlying infection pathway of the disease, ii) quantifying the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions based on an epidemic model, iii) allowing for the forecasting of future case number scenarios, iv) contributing in the assessment of the socio-economic impact of different response strategies for human epidemics in Europe in order to improve European preparedness planning and support decision-making in the framework of national epidemic preparedness plans. The BERNADETTE outputs will contribute to the enhancement of EU scientific excellence. Additionally, the project will enable the establishment of a long-term collaboration between the host and co-hosts, bringing the centers of European research excellence together.


Net EU contribution
€ 165 085,44
11251 Athens

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Αττική Aττική Κεντρικός Τομέας Αθηνών
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Total cost
€ 165 085,44