Urbanisation is a global trend poised to continue throughout the twenty-first century. Levels of urbanisation and various aspects of urban form (including density, land-use diversity, street connectivity, and access to public transit and jobs) have been demonstrated in many empirical studies and theoretical models to be important determinants of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions from buildings and transport. However, urban dimensions are absent from models projecting global energy and emissions by country and sector. This omission underrepresents the significant connection between urban dynamics and future emission trajectories, and hinders identification of integrated planning strategies for maximum emission reductions. The main objective of SUFFICCS is to develop and demonstrate a framework for integrated modelling of service levels (m2 floorspace, passenger-km), energy demand, and emissions from urban buildings and transport systems. This modelling framework will be developed using data from urban regions of European countries, and designed for integration with a global dynamic material flow analysis model. Emissions from producing new buildings, infrastructure, and transport equipment will be included, enabling a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts and mitigation potential of future urbanisation. The incorporation of urban dynamics into energy and climate models, and the linking of transport and buildings sectors through joint dependencies on urban form will represent major advancements in modelling capabilities. These advancements will facilitate assessment of urban and national emission trajectories under various scenarios of urban form, with unprecedented integration of buildings and transport sectors. The aims of SUFFICCS resonate with targets of the EU Green Deal relating to cities, buildings and transport, and the outputs will aid planners and policymakers to identify integrated strategies which maximise climate change mitigation.
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