Periodic Reporting for period 1 - FUTURELARVAE (Integrating physiological responses into species distribution models to forecast the effects of future ocean warming and oxygen depletion on fish larvae dynamics)
Berichtszeitraum: 2022-01-03 bis 2024-01-02
The EU-funded FUTURELARVAE uses experimental biology to incorporate eco physiological and behavioural data about larval responses to ocean warming and hypoxia into species distribution models (SDMs) to mechanistically predict the current and forecast the future distribution of fish larvae. The sand smelt Atherina presbyter, a small pelagic fish and the white seabream Diplodus sargus, a demersal fish, were used as model species. We evaluated the single and combined effects of these stressors on the mortality, growth patterns, behaviour, routine metabolic rate, oxidative stress biomarkers and energy metabolism biomarkers. Then, we evaluated whether these life history strategies will succeed under future climate through physiology-SDMs. We were able to identify that seabreams can improve physiological performance to reduce costs associated with the single and combined effects of warming and hypoxia on growth, swimming activity and routine metabolic rates. Sand smelts were able to use decrease behavioural responses as a coping strategy to sustain the aerobic and anaerobic metabolisms and to regulate oxidative stress when exposed to the tested conditions of warming, hypoxia or their combination. Moreover, by incorporating experimental outcomes into standard-SDMs we observed that the differences in expansion or contraction of hotspot habitat (suitability >0.6) between present-day and future scenario decreased. This means that such mechanistic SDM approach corroborated experimental results by emphasising that seabreams and sand smelts are able to overcome climate change. No distribution range shifts toward different latitudes was observed. Despite this, physiology-SDMs showed that habitat suitability loss will be more intense during warmer spring months by the end of the century for early stages of both species. Thus, understanding how and if fish early life stages will succeed in the future oceans is extremely important to precisely manage marine resources of great importance under economic, social and diversity perspectives.
FUTURELARVAE has made a huge effort to implement activities such as experimental design in fish facility, collection and transportation of fish larvae, physiological and behavioural assessments, statistical analyses and several hours of model runs. To achieve these successful activities, we followed plans of Project Management, Data Management, Career Development, Dissemination and Exploitation and Communication in addition to training related to transferable skills.
We collaborated with SARDITEMP, the ICES WGSPF, the Royal Netherlands Institute of Sea Research and the University of Turku through modelling solutions, widening of MARE-ISPA’s network. This resulted in the study “Seasonal approach to forecast the suitability of spawning habitats of a temperate small pelagic fish under a high-emission climate change scenario” and the study “Towards a unified eco-evolutionary framework for fisheries management: Coupling advances in next-generation sequencing with species distribution modelling”, both published by Frontiers in Marine Science These results were orally presented as the talk entitled “Move, adapt or go extinct: responses of small pelagic fish to global changes in the northeastern Atlantic” at the “2022 Symposium on Small Pelagic Fish: New Frontiers in Science and Sustainable Management”.
We have also helped foreign students to obtain master’s and PhD degrees through supervision activities. This resulted in the Master Thesis entitle “Effects of warming and hypoxia on the behaviour of early life stages of white seabream, Diplodus sargus” (Erasmus). It has also generated modelling results for the ongoing PhD Thesis entitled “Climate change and local anthropogenic impacts on the conservation of endangered marine species in Portuguese Marine Protected Areas” (FCT).
FUTURELARVAE results were published and presented to a broad variety of researchers in the fields of eco-physiology, environmental science and biodiversity. The outcomes suggests that early stages of seabreams overcame the single and combined effects of hypoxia and warming by using anaerobic reliance (anaerobic metabolism) to counterbalance the effects of the stressors on RMR, swimming activity and growth. Differently, early stages of sand smelts reduced growth rates, boldness and activity likely as coping strategies to stabilize the aerobic and anaerobic metabolisms when exposed to these stressors. By incorporating such outcomes into standard-SDMs we observed that habitats gains and losses, and expansion or contraction of highly suitable habitats notably shifted. The physiology-SDM corroborated experimental results, emphasising that seabreams and sand smelts can overcome climate change as the differences in distribution between present-day and future scenario decrease under the mechanistic approach. Despite this, physiology-SDMs showed that habitat suitability loss will be more intense during warmer spring months by the end of the century for early stages of both species as range shifts to other latitudes will likely not occur.
The outcomes resulted in a high impact study entitled “Early life stage mechanisms of an active fish species to cope with ocean warming and hypoxia as interacting stressors” published by Environmental Pollution. These results were orally presented as the talk “Multiple responses of fish larvae to heat and hypoxia as interacting stressors: acclimation potential to extreme conditions” at the 46th Larval Fish Conference 2023. Furthermore, our results were communicated as the press release “MARE-ISPA’s study identifies baby Sargos’ ability to acclimate under climate change” through Portuguese public media sources. The communication plan also includes the use of social media accounts and the participation in the project KIDS DIVE. However, due to the huge amount of data generated, we still have outcomes to disseminate beyond the project deadline, including publications and participation in workshops.
We collaborated with SARDITEMP, the ICES WGSPF, the Royal Netherlands Institute of Sea Research and the University of Turku through modelling solutions, widening of MARE-ISPA’s network. This resulted in the study “Seasonal approach to forecast the suitability of spawning habitats of a temperate small pelagic fish under a high-emission climate change scenario” and the study “Towards a unified eco-evolutionary framework for fisheries management: Coupling advances in next-generation sequencing with species distribution modelling”, both published by Frontiers in Marine Science These results were orally presented as the talk entitled “Move, adapt or go extinct: responses of small pelagic fish to global changes in the northeastern Atlantic” at the “2022 Symposium on Small Pelagic Fish: New Frontiers in Science and Sustainable Management”.
We have also helped foreign students to obtain master’s and PhD degrees through supervision activities. This resulted in the Master Thesis entitle “Effects of warming and hypoxia on the behaviour of early life stages of white seabream, Diplodus sargus” (Erasmus). It has also generated modelling results for the ongoing PhD Thesis entitled “Climate change and local anthropogenic impacts on the conservation of endangered marine species in Portuguese Marine Protected Areas” (FCT).
FUTURELARVAE results were published and presented to a broad variety of researchers in the fields of eco-physiology, environmental science and biodiversity. The outcomes suggests that early stages of seabreams overcame the single and combined effects of hypoxia and warming by using anaerobic reliance (anaerobic metabolism) to counterbalance the effects of the stressors on RMR, swimming activity and growth. Differently, early stages of sand smelts reduced growth rates, boldness and activity likely as coping strategies to stabilize the aerobic and anaerobic metabolisms when exposed to these stressors. By incorporating such outcomes into standard-SDMs we observed that habitats gains and losses, and expansion or contraction of highly suitable habitats notably shifted. The physiology-SDM corroborated experimental results, emphasising that seabreams and sand smelts can overcome climate change as the differences in distribution between present-day and future scenario decrease under the mechanistic approach. Despite this, physiology-SDMs showed that habitat suitability loss will be more intense during warmer spring months by the end of the century for early stages of both species as range shifts to other latitudes will likely not occur.
The outcomes resulted in a high impact study entitled “Early life stage mechanisms of an active fish species to cope with ocean warming and hypoxia as interacting stressors” published by Environmental Pollution. These results were orally presented as the talk “Multiple responses of fish larvae to heat and hypoxia as interacting stressors: acclimation potential to extreme conditions” at the 46th Larval Fish Conference 2023. Furthermore, our results were communicated as the press release “MARE-ISPA’s study identifies baby Sargos’ ability to acclimate under climate change” through Portuguese public media sources. The communication plan also includes the use of social media accounts and the participation in the project KIDS DIVE. However, due to the huge amount of data generated, we still have outcomes to disseminate beyond the project deadline, including publications and participation in workshops.
FUTURELARVAE generated a huge dataset dealing with several effects of climate change on fish early stages. Decreasing oxygen levels in sea water due to global warming and eutrophication are a real danger to marine biodiversity. However, the combined effect of warming and hypoxia is an important but not yet or little studied topic. The outcomes of the project contributed to advancing scientific knowledge in ecology, mainly marine eco-physiology, based on the multidimensional approach to mechanistically understand distribution of fish early stages. Our integrative approach suggest that these small fishes will have the behavioural and physiological capacity to acclimate, supporting or escaping more adverse environments, withstanding climate change. Applying tools generating science-based advice for the conservation of marine resources is also of great interest to society, particularly during this UN decade of the Oceans and commitment to Strategic Development Goals (SDG14). The outputs, such as the definition of future essential habitats, will be useful to stakeholders dedicated to biodiversity conservation and management of fish stocks. FUTURELARVAE outcomes are of great interest to the scientific community, industrial stakeholders, fisheries organizations and international scientific working groups that are aware of the socioeconomic importance of the sustainable use of marine resources towards the near future.