The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has historically experienced recurrent regime crises, characterized by shifts between authoritarianism, democratization efforts, and political instability. Understanding the preferences and strategic choices of political elites during these crises is crucial for explaining not only why some regimes transition toward democracy while others revert to authoritarianism, but also how authoritarian regimes consolidate power, maintain elite coalitions, and navigate internal power-sharing dynamics. While extensive research has explored such issues at the structural level, there is a significant gap in our knowledge regarding the individual-level drivers of these processes—specifically, how political elites' incentives, ideological commitments, and strategic calculations shape their preferences for accommodation or exclusion, and, consequently the dynamics of regime change.
The MENA-PERC project addresses this gap by systematically analyzing elite attitudes in Egypt, Tunisia, and Turkey from the late 19th century to the present. By linking macro-level regime outcomes to micro-level elite behaviors, the project seeks to uncover the mechanisms that drive political transitions and consolidation in these historically and politically significant cases.
MENA-PERC is designed to achieve three core objectives:
1. Mapping Elite Preferences: The project collects and analyzes individual-level data on members of parliament, examining their political preferences, strategic decisions, and ideological shifts over time.
2. Understanding the Drivers of Inclusion and Exclusion: By investigating how political elites navigate crises, the project sheds light on whether inclusive or exclusionary strategies contribute to democratic resilience or authoritarian entrenchment.
3. Integrating Multi-Method Approaches: Through a combination of text-as-data approaches, survey and experimental work, and in-depth fieldwork, MENA-PERC employs a rigorous research design to provide new insights into the dynamics of regime change and stability.
The findings of the MENA-PERC project are expected to have significant scholarly and policy implications:
- Advancing Theoretical and Empirical Understanding: By systematically studying elite behavior during regime crises, the project will contribute to broader debates in comparative politics, democratization studies, and authoritarianism research.
- Enhancing Methodological Innovations in Political Science: MENA-PERC's integration of elite surveys, historical data collection, and experimental research will refine methodological approaches for studying political elites and regime change.
By uncovering the factors that shape political elites’ responses to regime crises, MENA-PERC will contribute to a more nuanced understanding of political transitions and provide critical insights for scholars, practitioners, and policymakers working on governance and democratization in the MENA region and beyond.
