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State-dependent cloud phase feedbacks: enhancing understanding and assessing global effects

Project description

Research could uncover the how cloud phase changes affect climate sensitivity

The response of clouds to a change in average global temperature, known as cloud feedback, largely affects how much the planet will warm. Clouds are tricky to model, and their feedbacks account for the biggest uncertainties in calculating climate sensitivity. Recent studies have shown that thermodynamic phase changes drive cloud feedbacks to change with time owing to their dependence on warming levels or patterns. The EU-funded STEP-CHANGE project aims to improve understanding of how cloud feedbacks are associated with phase changes, focusing on the following cloud types and geographic regions: the Arctic, the deep convective cloud systems in tropic regions, and storm tracks in the southern hemisphere. The project will integrate aircraft measurements, lab experiments, spaceborne remote sensing and simulations.

Objective

The ways in which clouds change with global warming remain elusive, as are the associated cloud-climate feedbacks that govern most of the spread in climate sensitivity simulated by current Earth System Models. This uncertainty in turn limits society's ability to take necessary action to avoid dangerous climate change. Despite considerable research progress in recent decades, additional complexities have been uncovered that further add to the uncertainty. For example, the understanding that many cloud-climate feedbacks change with time, due to their dependence on warming levels or patterns, is relatively recent. Cloud thermodynamic phase changes are the root cause of some of this state-dependence, and new research has revealed that these feedbacks could shift Earth's climate into a state that is more sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing than at present. Understanding and quantifying this state-dependence is therefore critically important, but such progress will require deep understanding of processes on a range of scales, from the microphysics that control cloud phase to large-scale impacts on climate. Furthermore, it has become evident that different cloud-climate feedback regimes are governed by different processes with their own unique state dependence that must be investigated separately. Therefore, the overall objective of STEP-CHANGE is to understand and quantify feedbacks associated with cloud phase changes, including their state-dependence, for three distinct cloud regimes in the following regions: the Arctic, the Tropical deep convective region, and the Southern Hemisphere storm tracks. This will be achieved through a bold and innovative research strategy which includes aircraft measurements, lab experiments, space-borne remote sensing, and a hierarchy of numerical model simulations. STEP-CHANGE builds on recent discoveries and innovations within the PIs research group, and is motivated by key knowledge gaps identified in recent IPCC assessment reports.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

Keywords

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Funding Scheme

HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants

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Call for proposal

(opens in new window) ERC-2021-COG

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Host institution

UNIVERSITETET I OSLO
Net EU contribution
€ 2 249 666,00
Address
PROBLEMVEIEN 5-7
0313 Oslo
Norway
Region
Norge Oslo og Viken Oslo
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost
€ 2 249 666,00

Beneficiaries (1)