Periodic Reporting for period 2 - CATALYSE (Climate Action To Advance HeaLthY Societies in Europe)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2024-03-01 al 2025-08-31
To catalyse climate action in Europe to protect public health, our overarching goal is to provide new knowledge, data, and tools on: i) the relationships between changes in environmental hazards caused by climate change, ecosystems, and human health; ii) the health co-benefits of climate action; iii) the role of health evidence in decision making; and iv) the societal implications of climate change for health systems. This will be achieved through five specific objectives: 1) to develop an integrated indicator framework and repository to track the status of health-relevant outcomes of climate actions; 2) to quantify the health co-benefits and full social and environmental costs and benefits resulting from mitigation measures outside of the health sector; 3) to develop innovative surveillance and forecasting tools that facilitate effective response to environmental health hazards (e.g. heat stress, allergenic pollen) caused by climate change and the design, monitoring and evaluation of interventions to mitigate climate change; 4) to investigate how stakeholders engage with evidence regarding the health impacts of climate change, and to develop strategies and tools to facilitate engagement; and 5) to provide evidence and training on the most effective strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation for health systems, with specific focus on vulnerable populations including those occupationally exposed to hazards induced by climate change.
New indicators have been developed for the Lancet Countdown in Europe and the 2026 indicator report prepared (WP1). A new framework to guide the analysis of health co-benefits of mitigation in WP2 was developed and greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollution emissions under detailed policy scenarios completed. Emissions data have been used to model air pollution concentrations and health impacts across different sectors. Temperature forecasts have been integrated into a spatial bayesian model to produce small area attributable risk estimates of heat related mortality in T3.1. Pollen estimates have been integrated into MASK‑air® and participant enrollment is underway for the randomised trial to test the pollen early warning system. A predictive model of cycle utilisation for 864 cities has been developed and is being refined (T3.3) and the digital surveillance model (T3.4) is being refined using multi-modal data from Google searches and TikTok. Several activities to understand stakeholder perceptions and engagement with evidence on climate change and health (WP4) are underway including a scoping review and in-depth interviews, three policy case studies, and survey experiments covering four topics. The first version of the digital platform is nearly operational. A framework on adaptation in health systems and a scoping review on climate change resilient health systems have been completed. Field work related to heat stress among migrant agricultural workers has been completed in three countries alongside a scoping and systematic review on topics related to occupational heat stress among migrant agricultural workers. Several activities related to reducing GHG emissions in the Catalan health system are completed or underway including stakeholder engagement activities, calculation of baseline carbon footprint of the health system and definition of scenarios to be modelled using Life Cycle Assessment, and the definition of guidelines for GHG assessment methods.
CATALYSE has generated results that go beyond the state-of-the-art during the reporting period. Analyses conducted as part of WP1 have generated the most robust estimates for the relationship between wildfire smoke and mortality in Europe, allowing for a major improvement in the LCDE indicator tracking mortality burdens due to wildfire smoke. WP2 has produced a novel framework providing much needed granularity in the change pathways that give rise to health co-benefits of mitigation. The potential impact of the framework is to guide thinking in future research but also to highlight the importance of demand-side behaviour changes to health co-benefits, pathways that are currently not well represented in some of the main tools used for policy evaluation. Each of the EWS and predictive models being developed in WP3 brings scientific innovation; several of the models (e.g. small area heat mortality attribution, allergic rhinitis) are being developed in close coordination with end users to ensure potential usability and impact. The survey experiments targeting specific audiences conducted in WP4 will provide novel insights into which frames and narratives related to climate change and health are most engaging. The co-creation with stakeholders of a Theory of Change of a carbon neutral health care system in Catalonia as part of WP5 provides new insights into the detailed change processes needed for a sub-national health system to achieve the goal of becoming smart and net zero.