The project strengthened the scientific basis of the Forest–Climate (F–C) Nexus through integrated modelling, harmonised datasets and a robust indicator and decision-support framework.
A key achievement was the consolidation and validation of the Essential Forest Mitigation Indicators (EFMI). Nearly 130 mitigation and regional climate regulation indicators were compiled from literature, policy frameworks and monitoring systems, then clustered and reduced to 41 validated indicators. Each EFMI was documented in factsheets specifying definitions, units, rationale, links to ecosystem services, decarbonisation relevance and data sources. Open-access code ensures transparent calculation and harmonisation. Climate-related EFMIs were computed using datasets and regional climate model outputs and integrated into the common database.
A harmonised data infrastructure was further operationalised. The OptFor-EU database integrates European Forest Types (EFT), forest management practices (FMP), ecosystem services (FES), socio-economic indicators and climate variables across all CSAs. Harmonisation addressed unit conversions, temporal aggregation, spatial matching between plot-level simulations and gridded climate data, and standardised vocabularies and metadata. A tracking framework ensures traceability of EFMI implementation and outputs.
Regional climate simulations were performed under multiple RCP and SSP scenarios. Europe-wide simulations at 12 km resolution were completed, with higher-resolution experiments prepared for selected CSAs. Transient land-use and land-cover change was included to quantify seasonal and spatial temperature responses. Key climate variables—temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, humidity and leaf area index—were processed and validated against observations.
Forest ecosystem models (including 3D-CMCC-FEM and PICUS) simulated managed and unmanaged forests under multiple climate pathways from 2006 to 2100. Business-as-Usual practices were defined and compared with adaptive alternatives for 2050, quantifying carbon stocks, harvested wood products and ecosystem services.
A framework for coupling forest, climate and land-surface models was developed, including consistent boundary conditions and updated land-cover datasets. A climate-analogue approach enables spatial upscaling across Europe, strengthening DSS learning capacity.
Socio-economic and governance aspects were integrated through an indicator matrix covering rural impacts, employment, cost-of-inaction and market linkages. A mixed top-down and bottom-up validation ensured alignment between policy-driven indicators and empirical evidence. Advanced text analysis and survey insights informed modelling assumptions.
The open-source OptFor-EU DSS integrates databases, predictive models, optimisation algorithms and visual tools. A prototype using Romanian CSA data operationalises the modelling-to-indicator workflow, enabling scenario comparison and multi-objective optimisation of carbon and ecosystem services under climate change.
