Addressing Sustainability Transition Pathways in the Blue Economy

Projektinformationen

Blue-Paths

ID Finanzhilfevereinbarung: 101062188

DOI

10.3030/101062188

Das Projekt endete am 31 August 2024

EK-Unterschriftsdatum 7 Dezember 2022

Startdatum 1 März 2023

Enddatum 28 Februar 2025

Finanziert unter

Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)

Gesamtkosten

Keine Daten

EU-Beitrag

€ 165 312,96

Koordiniert durch

UNIVERSITAT DE GIRONA
Spain

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - Blue-Paths (Addressing Sustainability Transition Pathways in the Blue Economy)

Berichtszeitraum: 2023-03-01 bis 2025-02-28

The project Blue-Paths (Addressing Sustainability Transition Pathways) had the aim to analyze the sustainable use of marine socio-ecological systems (SES) through the development of a sustainability transition framework that will investigate the pathways of pervasive ocean technologies (OTs) in the most important sectors of the ocean economy (e.g. offshore, wind energy, ocean-energy, coastal tourism, shipping, deep sea mining and marine biotech) and their effects on SES usage and distribution. The scale of analysis was the Spanish exclusive economic zone.
Blue-Paths tested a novel modelling framework for ocean-based decision making by developing a pool of 39 indicators of socio-ecological-technical/technological-spatial efficiency and energy equity to support ocean-based decision-making exemplified for the allocation of offshore wind energy sites. For Blue-Paths it was particularly relevant that in February 2023, Spain adopted its first maritime spatial plan with 19 high potential areas for offshore wind energy development. To boost the impact of the project, Blue-Paths developed and applied on the indicator pool a multi-criteria ensembling technique (EnseMCDA; based on three different multi-criteria algorithms) to inform decision-making on the costs and benefits of the allocation of a certain sea area for offshore wind energy. Results were developed for four MSP subdivisions identified in the Spanish MSP (LEBA-Levatine-Balearic; NOR-North Atlantic, ESAL-Estrecho-Alboran and CAN-Canary Islands).
The developed technique is highly flexible, because it enabled to analyze what cost and benefits indicators are most relevant in each of MSP subdivisions through the application of a Machine Learning Techniques. This enables users and decision-making to identify what planning measure are required to ensure optimal allocation of offshore wind energy infrastructure that minimizes socio-ecological impacts, is spatially efficient, technically/technologically feasible and equitable. The method is extendable to any other blue economy sector, it can be used for the identification of new and prioritization of marine protected areas, and any other emerging new ocean technology.
In parallel, Blue-Paths reviewed the application of the concept of “Sustainability Transition” as defined for instance by Geels et al. (2010) “Sustainability transitions are long-term, multi-dimensional, and fundamental transformation processes through which established socio-technical systems shift to more sustainable modes of production and consumption”. In snapshot, the analysis showed that the term is applied in only a few Blue Economy sectors, such as shipping, aquaculture and offshore wind energy. This opened up the opportunity for the development of a novel framework, based on a petal diagram to address the methodologies available for sustainability transition characterization that could be relevant for different sectors of Blue Economy and at different planning stages of MSP. A cartographic research and literature review enabled the identification of other spatially pervasive/penetrating ocean technologies or spatial planning measures (e.g. new protected areas for climate change mitigation, marine R+D testing sites) emerging in the Spanish sea space. This included cases of ocean clean-up devices, testing of (3-D printed) artificial reefs, cabling for data flows, emerging electrified ferry routes, application of ROVs, potential extension of marine protected for climate change mitigation, research centres performing research in Artificial Intelligence for Blue Economy sectors, wave energy converters and sea space allocation for R+D.

Relevance of social and ecological indicators for decision-making. Integration of the socio-ecological dimension was developed through a multitude of indicator. Data resources included stable European (e.g. EMODNet, CORINE) and national statistic data providers (national statistic institute). Socio-ecological data included information on coastal tourism, population density, potential ecological risks from offshore wind energy (birds, fish and habitats and mammals), employment in the tourism sector, tourism pressure and urbanization. Blue-Paths extended the datasets with a novel Energy-Equity indicator category that reflects the energetic and economic conditions of coastal provinces that are candidate for offshore wind energy development in Spain. The indicators included were this GDP per capita, installation capacity, contribution of the province to renewable energy production, contribution of the province to energy production on regional level and unemployment. The indicators resulted to be important, because they provide insights on the distributional equity of the allocation of offshore wind energy infrastructure and provide understanding which coastal regions have socio-economically privileged conditions and which coastal areas already take the burden of a transition to clean energy. Also, the datasets were applied at provincial scale, which appeared to be suitable geospatial scale for better decision-making in the allocation of offshore wind energy infrastructure.

The planning of offshore wind energy areas is driven by multiple drivers, that are often induced as well by planning cultures, priorities and behaviours. For this purpose, Blue-Paths developed a multi-tier planning approach towards site prioritization on the 19 areas of the Spanish MSP. This included:
• Co-existence: Allocation of offshore wind energy follow recital 8 of the EU MSP Directive (2014/89/EU) and the methodological approach of the Spanish Maritime Spatial Plan by promoting co-existence among different uses of the sea.
• Socio-Ecological: Allocation of offshore wind energy should be defined in areas where ecological and social costs are minimized, this includes distance from coast to avoid visual impacts and in sea areas where cumulative risks to habitats, birds, marine mammals and fish are minimized.
• Spatial-Efficiency: Allocation of offshore wind energy should be developed in areas where interactions and conflicts (recital 19; 2014/89/EU) with other uses of the sea are minimized: nature protection, commercial fishery, shipping, cabling, military areas and coastal tourism.
• Energy Equity: Allocation of offshore wind energy follow distributional equity principle by considering fair distribution of benefits and burdens to coastal communities, taking into account economic and social disadvantaged coastal regions/provinces, just transition towards low-carbon energy systems and sharing of burden with energetically “privileged” provinces.
• Technical/ Technological: Offshore wind energy should be allocated in sea areas where technical/technological feasibility is maximized, where potentials for multi-use combinations with OWE infrastructure are maximized (with aquaculture and solar energy), weather conditions do not harm infrastructure and where capacity of energy production can be maximized.
The characteristics of the framework provide promising approaches for future decision-making in MSP, especially what concerns offshore wind energy and potential future potential of ocean-multi (e.g. offshore wind + aquaculture), because it ensures a more robust and reliable decision-making process.
The implementation of the study included the development of a database of 39 criteria and their preparation for analysis. The Ensemble Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (EnseMCDA) approach incorporates three distinct multi-criteria methodologies: TOPSIS, MMOORA, and VIKOR. Each of these techniques was executed using a set of 10,000 unique weights for each criterion (39 criteria x 10,000 weights = 390,000 weights). These weights were derived through a Monte Carlo simulation process. Consequently, a total of 30,000 rankings (ranging from 1 to 19, as the number of potential areas for OWE development in Spain) were generated, with each methodology contributing 10,000 ranks. These rankings were then consolidated and presented in the form of priority ranks and optimal priority rankings. This comprehensive approach ensures a robust and reliable decision-making process.
Figure 1 describes the priority ranking for offshore wind site selection according to three different planning tiers in four planning subdivisions (LEBA-Levatine-Balearic; NOR-North Atlantic, ESAL-Estrecho-Alboran and CAN-Canary Islands).
Machine Learning Technique based on Random Forest was applied for the identification of trade-offs using a C-MSE – cumulative means standard error and the MSE for single criteria.
Figure 2 below illustrates the methodological approach/framework applied in Blue-Paths for the case study on offshore wind energy.

Blue-Paths produced in total 25 OUTPUTS. There are 14 TECHNICAL OUTPUTS in Blue-Paths:
Scientific manuscripts: Two scientific manuscripts were submitted. One manuscript planned as policy brief in an open letter format with key findings to be submitted to Open Research Europe.
1. Depellegrin et al., 2024. More robust offshore wind energy planning through model ensembling. Nature NPJ (Submitted: May 2024; R1: minor revision; R2: under review). Submission ID: 07023eef-4c15-4d2a-bfb9-0de2021a8947. (Type: Research Article). (ACCPETED)
2. Depellegrin et al., 2024. Making Maritime Spatial Planning transition-based. Nature NPJ (Submitted July 2024; R1: under review). Submission ID: 07023eef-4c15-4d2a-bfb9-0de2021a8947. (Type: Perspective). (UNDER REVIEW in 09/2024)
3. Depellegrin D., et al., 2024. Integrating Sustainability Transition into Maritime Spatial Planning and the Blue Economy. Open Research Europe. (IN PREPARATION).

Conferences, workshops, seminars: Blue-Paths has been presented at 4 topical international workshops/conferences, and 4 knowledge transfer seminars (10 to 14) and 1 seminar for local stakeholders (14).
International conferences/workshops:
4. Depellegrin D., 2024. The Blue-Paths Project. Stift. Lerici/ Teknocene: building resilience and adaptation in the face of global challenges. Funded by the Lerici Foundation (Proj no.: 33409). KTH Stockholm (Sweden), 13-17/05/2024.
5. Depellegrin D., Ambrosino M., Martí Llambrich, C., 2023. “Ensemble” Multi-criteria techniques for more robust offshore wind energy planning. PLASMAR Project (Setting the bases for Sustainable Maritime Spatial Planning in Macaronesia) Final Conference (European Regional Development Fund through the Operational Programme of Territorial Cooperation Madeira-Azores-Canary Islands (POMAC 2014-2020). Gran Canaria (Spain), 12th December 2023.
6. Depellegrin D., Ambrosino M., Roy S., Martí Llambrich, 2023. Geospatial Techniques for more robust Ocean Planning. Invited expert at the Horizon Europe MarineWind Project Brussels (Belgium) 23/11/2023.
7. Depellegrin D, Ambrosino, M., Roy S., Anbleyth-Evans J., García Sanabria J., Larosa F., Martí Llambrich C., 2023. Disentangling the landscape of offshore wind energy arrays of the first Spanish Maritime Spatial. ICES 2023 Annual Science Conference, Bilbao (Spain) 11-14 September 2023.

Knowledge transfer seminars:
8. Depellegrin D., and Marti Llambrich, C., 2023. Knowledge transfer in techniques & methods in Ocean Planning. GeoXarxa Seminar of the Department of Geography, University of Girona.
9. Depellegrin D., 2023. Experiences in Ocean Planning across European Seas. IH-Foundation IHCantabria Instituto de Hidraulica Ambiental de Cantabria, Santander (Spain), 20/10/2023.
10. Depellegrin D., Ambrosino M., Roy S., Martí Llambrich, C., 2023. “Ensemble” Multi-criteria techniques for more robust offshore wind energy planning. Mediterranean Community of Practice Second MED-MSP-Community of Practice Webinar MSP AND OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY Monday 13th November 2023 11:00 – 12:15 CET. Web: https://maritime-spatial-planning.ec.europa.eu/media/document/15027.
11. Depellegrin D., Roy S., Anbleyth-Evans J., Martí Llambrich C., 2023. Ocean Multi-Use as a pathway for sustainable transition in the Blue Economy. MSP Research Network (MSPRN) Webinar: 12th April 2023: MSP Futures: Beyond Single Use Zoning?

Seminar to local stakeholders:
12. Depellegrin D., 2024. Addressing the Interactions among Humans and the Marine Environment. Seminari sobre l’eòlica marina a la Costa Brava, Girona (Spain), 08/03/2024.

Blue-Paths Case Studies
13. EU MSP-Platform, 2024. The Blue-Paths Project: https://maritime-spatial-planning.ec.europa.eu/projects/addressing-sustainability-transition-pathways-blue-economy
14. EMODNET, 2023. Use case on Blue-Paths. Web: https://emodnet.ec.europa.eu/en/use-case/characterization-potential-spanish-offshore-wind-energy-landscape-through-emodnet-data

We provide an overview of the key findings of Blue-Paths that are relevant for future MSP, research on ocean governance and marine socio-ecological analysis beyond the study area settings.
1. Policy relevant evidence for future maritime spatial planning, Blue Economy and sustainable transition policies. The Blue-Paths research activities and knowledge exchange through workshops, conferences and seminars enabled Blue-Paths to open up a new theoretical research area, namely “transition-based Maritime Spatial Planning”. Sustainability transition theory in marine policies: Transition-based MSP entails the integration of Sustainability Transition Theory into MSP. Sustainability transitions involve deep, systemic changes across society to address environmental crises, focusing on transforming key sectors such as food, transport, and energy. These transitions require both gradual improvements and major shifts in technologies, economies, and socio-technical systems to achieve sustainability goals. Transition-based Maritime Spatial Planning or ocean governance: During the literature review process it was identified that in the MSP Directive (2014/89/EU) there is no evidence of the term "sustainability transition (ST)" which frequently mentions "sustainable development" or "sustainable growth." These terms differ significantly from ST. Sustainable development balances economic, social, and environmental dimensions across sectors, involving incremental improvements within existing systems. In contrast, ST focuses on shifting from unsustainable practices to sustainable alternatives through fundamental socio-technical changes, overcoming barriers, mobilizing stakeholders, and challenging existing norms to achieve transformative outcomes.

2. AI application in Blue-Economy sectors. Technological innovations such as AI's use in the Blue Economy may create unintended consequences, such as Jevons’ Paradox, where increased efficiency leads to greater resource consumption, with increased risk of marine resources exploitation and new patterns of anthropogenic impacts. For example, AI in fisheries and shipping might enhance efficiency, but risks of overexploitation of resources still exist. Effective policies and monitoring are essential to ensure that AI-driven innovations in the Blue Economy do minimize the creation of a “Blue” Jevon’s Paradox.

3. Evolving models for future Maritime Spatial Planning. Figure 3 provides and overview of interdisciplinary methodologies relevant in the context of Sustainability Transition studies. In particular we would like to highlight the following. 1) The application of multi-criteria (MC) ensemble models can help allocate marine activities by reducing bias and uncertainty, benefiting decision-making for offshore wind and other sectors. The ensembled multi-criteria technique appeared to be potentially relevant for decision-making as it explores ranking of a decision based on different planning approaches represented through the five tiered approach (co-existence, socio-ecological, technical/technological, spatial efficiency and energy equity). 2) Cumulative Life Cycle Assessment: When combined with cumulative impact assessments, Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) provide a more comprehensive understanding of the environmental, social, and economic impacts of marine infrastructure, allowing for better-informed decisions. While for urban areas, LCA applications for spatial planning exist, in marine planning context, LCA analysis is barely studied.

4. Place-based socio-ecological knowledge and data for a just transition of our seas. Place-based data at local levels (e.g. NUTS level 3 or lower) is essential to address the place-based dependency of coastal communities to socio-ecological resources. Based on the local socio-ecological and economic conditions regional inequalities can be addressed and the adaptation capacity of communities towards drivers of change, such as sea use change, climate change or pollution can be investigated. This approach ensures that local socio-economic and environmental factors are considered, helping balance social, ecological and economic interests when developing infrastructure projects at coast and seas.

5. Seablindness in ocean planning agendas. Despite their importance, subsea cables, which carry the bulk of global data (there are 1.8 million km of subsea cables), and the growing interest in deep-sea mining receive little attention in national MSP. This phenomenon, sometimes called "seablindness" reflects a broader lack of awareness about the sea’s multidimensional role in society and its impact on global infrastructure and ecosystems.

6. Military areas as a new space for renewable energy production. Given the extent of coastal and marine military areas, studies are required to understand how suitable the sites are for potential allocation of marine renewable energy production and or multi-use testing areas (wind energy + aquaculture)

7. Skills for Sustainability Transition. A cultural shift is necessary for successful sustainability transitions. Experts in fields like history, anthropology, and ethics, as well as specialized educational programs in sustainability transition management, are crucial for developing the knowledge and leadership needed to guide businesses and policies toward sustainable futures.

Example results of priority ranking of OWE, based three planning tiers

Petal-Diagram, identifying Sustainability Transition methodologies relevant for MSP and ocean gov.

Blue-Paths framework tested for the planning challenge offshore wind energy

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - Blue-Paths (Addressing Sustainability Transition Pathways in the Blue Economy)

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