Descripción del proyecto
La pesca en la estabilidad del ecosistema marino
No hay duda de que el cambio climático y la sobrepesca amenazan el futuro de los ecosistemas marinos, lo que se traduce en una reducción de las poblaciones marinas. La pregunta es cuánto y por cuánto tiempo. Es importante rastrear y pronosticar la estabilidad del ecosistema marino a fin de comprender la capacidad de un ecosistema para sobrevivir a las perturbaciones. En este contexto, el equipo del proyecto MAFIS, con el apoyo de las Acciones Marie Skłodowska-Curie, desarrollará un novedoso marco de investigación que abarcará las dimensiones temporal y espacial de tres especies de peces clave del mar del Norte para rastrear y pronosticar la estabilidad de la población marina e identificar los impulsores de la estabilidad de la población en el espacio. Los resultados se presentarán en un mapa interactivo en línea y un manual para administradores e investigadores de pesquerías.
Objetivo
Marine ecosystems provide key functions and services including biodiversity and food resources. Disturbances, such as climate change and overfishing, are seriously threatening the future provision of these services and leading to collapse of marine populations. To track and forecast marine ecosystem stability has emerged as a new paradigm to understand the capacity of an ecosystem to persist a qualitatively similar state in the face of disturbances. However, three challenges prevent the advances in this research field. Most established stability measures assume stable equilibrium and constant magnitude of disturbances, while marine ecosystems are influenced by multiple disturbances simultaneously, with the magnitude of disturbances changing with time. In addition, even though population stability varies with space, most of existing work examined marine ecosystem stability at the regional scale of fishing grounds due to limitations in data and methodology. Moreover, age group interactions fundamentally affect population dynamics yet have been overlooked when quantifying population stability. In line with those reflections, this proposed research intends to develop a novel research framework to track and forecast marine population stability encompassing temporal and spatial dimensions of three key fish species of the North Sea (WP1), and to identify drivers of population stability across space (WP2). Empirical dynamic modelling will be used to track and forecast the evolution of population stability over time and across space based on age group interactions of the population, producing yearly population stability maps from 1977 to 2022 and forecast maps from 2023 onward. These results will be transformed into web-based interactive map and manual (WP3) for fisheries managers and researchers to identify the most vulnerable locations in the fishing grounds and to decide fishing quota with the overall goal of preserving stability in marine ecosystems.
Ámbito científico
- agricultural sciencesagriculture, forestry, and fisheriesfisheries
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographycartography
- natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystems
- natural sciencesbiological scienceszoologyichthyology
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
- HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) Main Programme
Régimen de financiación
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European FellowshipsCoordinador
75794 Paris
Francia