Projektbeschreibung
Auf der Suche nach Stabilität im Meeresökosystem
Der Klimawandel und die Überfischung bedrohen zweifelsohne die Zukunft der Meeresökosysteme und führen zu einer Abnahme der Meerespopulationen. Das Ausmaß und die Langfristigkeit sind jedoch ungewiss. Die Stabilität eines Meeresökosystems muss dokumentiert und prognostiziert werden, um die Möglichkeiten eines Ökosystems zu verstehen, Störungen zu überleben. In diesem Zusammenhang wird das über die Marie-Skłodowska-Curie-Maßnahmen unterstützte Projekt MAFIS einen neuen Forschungsrahmen aufstellen, um die Stabilität von Meerespopulationen zu dokumentieren und zu prognostizieren. Der Umfang umfasst dabei zeitliche und räumliche Dimensionen von drei wichtigen Fischarten in der Nordsee. Darüber hinaus sollen ortsunabhängige förderliche Faktoren für die Populationsstabilität bestimmt werden. Die Ergebnisse werden in einer interaktiven Online-Karte und einem Handbuch für Fischereibetriebe und Forschende veröffentlicht.
Ziel
Marine ecosystems provide key functions and services including biodiversity and food resources. Disturbances, such as climate change and overfishing, are seriously threatening the future provision of these services and leading to collapse of marine populations. To track and forecast marine ecosystem stability has emerged as a new paradigm to understand the capacity of an ecosystem to persist a qualitatively similar state in the face of disturbances. However, three challenges prevent the advances in this research field. Most established stability measures assume stable equilibrium and constant magnitude of disturbances, while marine ecosystems are influenced by multiple disturbances simultaneously, with the magnitude of disturbances changing with time. In addition, even though population stability varies with space, most of existing work examined marine ecosystem stability at the regional scale of fishing grounds due to limitations in data and methodology. Moreover, age group interactions fundamentally affect population dynamics yet have been overlooked when quantifying population stability. In line with those reflections, this proposed research intends to develop a novel research framework to track and forecast marine population stability encompassing temporal and spatial dimensions of three key fish species of the North Sea (WP1), and to identify drivers of population stability across space (WP2). Empirical dynamic modelling will be used to track and forecast the evolution of population stability over time and across space based on age group interactions of the population, producing yearly population stability maps from 1977 to 2022 and forecast maps from 2023 onward. These results will be transformed into web-based interactive map and manual (WP3) for fisheries managers and researchers to identify the most vulnerable locations in the fishing grounds and to decide fishing quota with the overall goal of preserving stability in marine ecosystems.
Wissenschaftliches Gebiet
- agricultural sciencesagriculture, forestry, and fisheriesfisheries
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographycartography
- natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystems
- natural sciencesbiological scienceszoologyichthyology
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
Schlüsselbegriffe
Programm/Programme
- HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) Main Programme
Aufforderung zur Vorschlagseinreichung
Andere Projekte für diesen Aufruf anzeigenFinanzierungsplan
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European FellowshipsKoordinator
75794 Paris
Frankreich