Description du projet
Pêcher pour la stabilité des écosystèmes marins
Il ne fait aucun doute que le changement climatique et la surpêche menacent l’avenir des écosystèmes marins, entraînant une réduction des populations marines. La question est de savoir combien et pendant combien de temps. Il est important de suivre et prédire la stabilité des écosystèmes marins afin de comprendre leur capacité à survivre aux perturbations. Dans ce contexte, soutenu par le programme Actions Marie Skłodowska-Curie, le projet MAFIS développera un nouveau cadre de recherche pour suivre et prédire la stabilité des populations marines en tenant compte des dimensions temporelle et spatiale de trois espèces importantes de poissons de la mer du Nord, et pour identifier les facteurs de stabilité des populations dans l’espace. Les résultats seront présentés dans une carte interactive en ligne et un manuel destiné aux responsables de la pêche et aux chercheurs.
Objectif
Marine ecosystems provide key functions and services including biodiversity and food resources. Disturbances, such as climate change and overfishing, are seriously threatening the future provision of these services and leading to collapse of marine populations. To track and forecast marine ecosystem stability has emerged as a new paradigm to understand the capacity of an ecosystem to persist a qualitatively similar state in the face of disturbances. However, three challenges prevent the advances in this research field. Most established stability measures assume stable equilibrium and constant magnitude of disturbances, while marine ecosystems are influenced by multiple disturbances simultaneously, with the magnitude of disturbances changing with time. In addition, even though population stability varies with space, most of existing work examined marine ecosystem stability at the regional scale of fishing grounds due to limitations in data and methodology. Moreover, age group interactions fundamentally affect population dynamics yet have been overlooked when quantifying population stability. In line with those reflections, this proposed research intends to develop a novel research framework to track and forecast marine population stability encompassing temporal and spatial dimensions of three key fish species of the North Sea (WP1), and to identify drivers of population stability across space (WP2). Empirical dynamic modelling will be used to track and forecast the evolution of population stability over time and across space based on age group interactions of the population, producing yearly population stability maps from 1977 to 2022 and forecast maps from 2023 onward. These results will be transformed into web-based interactive map and manual (WP3) for fisheries managers and researchers to identify the most vulnerable locations in the fishing grounds and to decide fishing quota with the overall goal of preserving stability in marine ecosystems.
Champ scientifique
- agricultural sciencesagriculture, forestry, and fisheriesfisheries
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographycartography
- natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystems
- natural sciencesbiological scienceszoologyichthyology
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
Mots‑clés
Programme(s)
- HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) Main Programme
Régime de financement
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European FellowshipsCoordinateur
75794 Paris
France