Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ClimRes (Quantifying the resilience of vertebrates to changing climates worldwide)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2023-09-01 al 2025-08-31
Climate change is reshaping ecosystems across Europe and worldwide, yet species differ greatly in their ability to cope with these changes. Some populations rebound quickly after environmental shocks, while others decline. Understanding why such differences exist is central to biodiversity conservation and to predicting the long-term consequences of climate change.
This fellowship set out to link the small-scale processes of life history and demography with the large-scale challenge of species survival under global change. By studying both vertebrate and invertebrate systems, the project aimed to:
- Clarify how resilience can be defined and measured in ecological populations;
- Develop new analytical frameworks for assessing the impact of climate extremes on animal/plant survival and reproduction;
- Provide experimental evidence for how temperature affects development and morphology in vulnerable species.
The overall objective was to provide new concepts, tools, and evidence that help researchers, conservationists and policy makers anticipate how species and ecosystems will respond to rapid environmental change. In doing so, the project contributes to the EU’s biodiversity and climate priorities by improving the scientific basis for resilience-based management strategies.
This fellowship set out to link the small-scale processes of life history and demography with the large-scale challenge of species survival under global change. By studying both vertebrate and invertebrate systems, the project aimed to:
- Clarify how resilience can be defined and measured in ecological populations;
- Develop new analytical frameworks for assessing the impact of climate extremes on animal/plant survival and reproduction;
- Provide experimental evidence for how temperature affects development and morphology in vulnerable species.
The overall objective was to provide new concepts, tools, and evidence that help researchers, conservationists and policy makers anticipate how species and ecosystems will respond to rapid environmental change. In doing so, the project contributes to the EU’s biodiversity and climate priorities by improving the scientific basis for resilience-based management strategies.
The project delivered three major strands of work:
1. A conceptual contribution on resilience: A concise paper was developed to clarify how “demographic resilience” can be understood in terms of short-term (transient) population dynamics. The work identified common pitfalls in applying resilience metrics and proposed a practical way forward: to focus on how environmental change affects vital rates (survival, growth, reproduction) and then use structured models to forecast outcomes.
2. An analytical framework for climate impacts on yellow mongoose: Using long-term capture–recapture data from the Kalahari, I developed a set of Hidden Markov Models to estimate survival and demographic transitions under varying climatic conditions. These models were embedded in an individual-based simulation to forecast population trajectories under different climate extremes. The framework is modular, openly coded, and designed for reuse with other small carnivore datasets, making it a significant step towards transferable tools for climate-sensitive population modelling.
3. Temperature-driven drivers of life history in Doñana, antlions and Mediterranean shrub populations: Laboratory experiments tested how constant versus fluctuating thermal regimes affected the development, survival, and morphology of dune-dwelling antlions. Results showed that warming accelerates development but can increase mortality and deformities, while fluctuating day–night regimes partly reduce these negative effects. These findings offer rare mechanistic insights into how insects may cope with increasing heat-wave intensity. In Doñana, I developed field monitoring using individual-based demographic surveys from Doñana national park for several species of perennial shrubs experiencing rapid climate change.
Together, these achievements provide a coherent picture that spans theory, modelling, and empirical evidence, linking fundamental ecological processes with pressing climate challenges.
1. A conceptual contribution on resilience: A concise paper was developed to clarify how “demographic resilience” can be understood in terms of short-term (transient) population dynamics. The work identified common pitfalls in applying resilience metrics and proposed a practical way forward: to focus on how environmental change affects vital rates (survival, growth, reproduction) and then use structured models to forecast outcomes.
2. An analytical framework for climate impacts on yellow mongoose: Using long-term capture–recapture data from the Kalahari, I developed a set of Hidden Markov Models to estimate survival and demographic transitions under varying climatic conditions. These models were embedded in an individual-based simulation to forecast population trajectories under different climate extremes. The framework is modular, openly coded, and designed for reuse with other small carnivore datasets, making it a significant step towards transferable tools for climate-sensitive population modelling.
3. Temperature-driven drivers of life history in Doñana, antlions and Mediterranean shrub populations: Laboratory experiments tested how constant versus fluctuating thermal regimes affected the development, survival, and morphology of dune-dwelling antlions. Results showed that warming accelerates development but can increase mortality and deformities, while fluctuating day–night regimes partly reduce these negative effects. These findings offer rare mechanistic insights into how insects may cope with increasing heat-wave intensity. In Doñana, I developed field monitoring using individual-based demographic surveys from Doñana national park for several species of perennial shrubs experiencing rapid climate change.
Together, these achievements provide a coherent picture that spans theory, modelling, and empirical evidence, linking fundamental ecological processes with pressing climate challenges.
The fellowship pushed knowledge beyond the state of the art in three ways:
- Conceptual clarity: By reframing demographic resilience metrics as comparative life-history traits rather than direct measures of environmental response, the project has improved how resilience is interpreted across ecological studies. This provides a stronger theoretical basis for future syntheses.
- New analytical and modelling tools: The yellow mongoose framework integrates advanced statistical models with simulation approaches, allowing researchers to link climate drivers directly to demographic outcomes. Its modular, open-source design means it can be readily adapted to other species and contexts.
- Empirical evidence for climate vulnerability: The antlion study provides one of the few experimental tests of insect development under realistic heat-wave regimes. This type of mechanistic data is essential for forecasting insect biodiversity responses, yet is rarely available. Then in perennial shrub populations in Doñana, the individual-based monitoring study is a rare case study of demographic responses in extreme environments. Initial publication on antlions in Ecology and Evolution: Comparative life-history responses of lacewings to changes in temperature, Hanna Serediuk, John Jackson, Sanne Maria Evers, Maria Paniw; https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70000(si apre in una nuova finestra)
To maximise uptake, all code and data products will be archived on open platforms (Zenodo, GitHub). Further publications will be in open-access journals, ensuring broad accessibility. The main needs for future uptake include continued collaboration with ecological forecasting networks, integration of the methods into conservation decision-support systems, and dialogue with insect conservation initiatives.
- Conceptual clarity: By reframing demographic resilience metrics as comparative life-history traits rather than direct measures of environmental response, the project has improved how resilience is interpreted across ecological studies. This provides a stronger theoretical basis for future syntheses.
- New analytical and modelling tools: The yellow mongoose framework integrates advanced statistical models with simulation approaches, allowing researchers to link climate drivers directly to demographic outcomes. Its modular, open-source design means it can be readily adapted to other species and contexts.
- Empirical evidence for climate vulnerability: The antlion study provides one of the few experimental tests of insect development under realistic heat-wave regimes. This type of mechanistic data is essential for forecasting insect biodiversity responses, yet is rarely available. Then in perennial shrub populations in Doñana, the individual-based monitoring study is a rare case study of demographic responses in extreme environments. Initial publication on antlions in Ecology and Evolution: Comparative life-history responses of lacewings to changes in temperature, Hanna Serediuk, John Jackson, Sanne Maria Evers, Maria Paniw; https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70000(si apre in una nuova finestra)
To maximise uptake, all code and data products will be archived on open platforms (Zenodo, GitHub). Further publications will be in open-access journals, ensuring broad accessibility. The main needs for future uptake include continued collaboration with ecological forecasting networks, integration of the methods into conservation decision-support systems, and dialogue with insect conservation initiatives.